Mount Joy Snowman

3k NAM is similar to the 12k, a bit less juicy but basically holds serve. Gotta love a good off-hour NAM run haha. I'll wait for the 0z suite but I think we're locking in here pretty good.

ask and you shall receive.....mind you the coastal is still going and starting to overspread MD and VA with more precip at this time, hold tight....

Yep, cut it in half and let's call it a day.

Aaaaand just like that the forum gets NAMed......

CTP weighs in....... .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... 3:00pm update for the Thurs/Fri storm: Models are shifting the track of the low pressure more south and towards the coast than past runs. From this, the axis of heaviest QPF in theory will shift southeast. We ever so slightly bumped down totals in the NW and bumped up totals in the southeast following the recent trend in a more southerly Miller A type track. This would favor more snow in our South/Southeast counties, but there is still time for the track to shift around. Models have been trending colder as well, but based on how the models initially showed this past storm colder and it ended up be very warm, I`m skeptical that this will be an all snow event. Soundings show a warm nose poking up into the Lower Susquehanna Thursday night, so included the chance of freezing rain and sleet for overnight TThursday. Again some uncertainty exists in how far north and west this wintry mix will go, but if the cold trend stays the mix may be confined to just our southeast counties. Confidence is increasing in an impactful winter storm occurring before sunrise Thursday and continuing until Friday morning, with lingering light snow showers in the mountains Friday afternoon.

It's fascinating how these events can change so much as we head into game time. This had been looking like a fairly quick hitter but now seems to be morphing into a prolonged, almost two-parter, type of storm with a nice initial thump thursday morning, then a bit of a wind down period later in the day thursday, followed by some backbuilding precipitation that runs through thursday night perhaps even lasting into friday morning as the coastal gets going. Trending colder as well to these eyes. Either way, all the guidance agrees that we are in for a nice winter storm. Now, how the heck am I going to get up to the Poconos on thursday ha.

.75" of nothing but plain rain here overnight, yippee. Really liking this Thursday potential though, guidance is honing in. 12z NAM pastes most of LSV with close to a foot. I like a general 6" for most of the region with some boom potential in the typical spots. Fun times ahead.

Euro holds steady, with a general 6-8" for most of the forum. Nothing earth-shattering but the warm layers don't penetrate as far north and there was a corresponding shift south with the heaviest totals into northern Virginia.

Euro by Wednesday morning coming in a bit colder with the 850s for most of PA....

Very true but certainly more support for the Ukie at this moment, albeit not overwhelmingly so. The 12z Euro run coming up here is huge, should really be in its wheelhouse at this point.

Agreed on all accounts.

Temps in upper teens to low 20s at this point and they don't seem to rise much from there. QPF around a half inch for most throughout the day.

Yes it seems like he's coming around. You aren't kidding about the Ukie! 2M, 925, 850 and 700 temps all look to hold throughout the duration of the storm for most of the forum too. Color me intrigued.

Latest from Horst...... (1/2) Keeping with the recent trend...tonight's system is rather weak & north-tracking. Temps are marginal, but colder outlying and low lying areas may get some front-end ice...whereas milder areas (and treated surfaces) may see mainly plain rain. #StayAware (2/2) The next system in the queue looks stronger and more impactful with snow developing before daybreak Thursday...then an extended period of sleet/freezing rain Thursday midday and afternoon. Definitely not a good day for travel, especially heading northward.

Haha no love for the Wyoming Valley.

Now THIS is not a map you see everyday. Amazing.

Yes I was having the same issue earlier but now it appears to be working again, at least for the short range models. Just checked and the hover feature is working fine for the Euro too but not the GFS. Maybe just a temporary glitch, who knows......

Euro still with the ice to the south snow to the north theme for Monday night into Tuesday and holding onto the coastal idea for Thursday. One way or another it's looking like one hell of a messy week ahead.

Oh I know my friend, that's actually the one I've been keeping a keen eye on because I have to drive to the Poconos that day. Looks downright treacherous with that low level cold refusing to budge until late in the act, really hoping for a Euro coastal look. My plans may have to change, especially given what we saw in that horrendous video out of Fort Worth. Man that was tough to watch, never seen anything quite like it.

GFS cuts the low across Virginia resulting in an ice storm for much of the LSV, snow in the I80 and north corridor, and battleground in the middle susquehanna valley. Interesting.

Thanks, I use e-Wall and Pivotal and they don't include ICON and JMA. I assume you use TT for those? I will say e-Wall has had some issues lately but that's long been my go-to, feel like I'm at the helm of a nuclear control room when I'm on that site, love it haha.

Welp the nam/rdps/wrf/nmmb all basically say no dice to the weekend event, outside of perhaps some light scattered snizzle.....let's see what the gfs/cmc/ecmwf have to say for next week

To me, and as a number of you have mentioned, by far the biggest story of the pattern is the inability of the truly arctic air centered over the central part of the country to bleed its way east. I mean, considering what all the models were advertising for most of the past week it's pretty stunning to see where things are heading. Disappointing really, as I was looking forward to some icebox temps, to say nothing of the fact that snow is likely off the table for most of the LSV now as well. Not giving up yet but trends are less than ideal.

24 hour snowfall was one of the more uniform distributions I've seen across CTP land recently, with almost all reports within the 1.5"-3.5" range and only a couple minor lollipops out in the typical hotspots of the Laurels.

Hello anotherman! I used to take the train from Mount Joy everyday and hopefully will again if we ever get back to working in-person. I got 2.0" on the nose. Not bad, was hoping to squeeze out 3-4 but was always hesitant given that northeastern cutoff gradient that had be showing up on most of the models for days on end. On to the net one....