Mount Joy Snowman

Good stuff, reminds me of the least squares method for determining a line of best fit in statistics.

This is a great point. So often now a significant portion of the AFDs is just a rundown of the latest model guidance. Don't get me wrong, I still like reading them and enjoy the technical aspects but their deference to modelology is much more noticeable these days.

It would certainly eliminate some of the back and forth nature of this hobby. The highs and lows come at you quick when you live and die by each model run.

Truer words have never been spoken.

Thank you that is what I was trying to post haha, literally staring at the new one on my screen but then when I go to copy and paste the image an older version shows up, who knows...

Haven't seen this posted yet, updated at 1:35.....looks like a slight reduction in totals if I recall correctly from the previous version.... uuuuuhhhhh for whatever reason when I try to copy the recent one it's pasting the older version from 7:35 last night, not sure why......

Euro continues the drying trend I alluded to earlier with the GFS and RGEM. The primary Low is just, blah, doesn't pack enough punch. Even when it hits the coast there's nothing remotely resembling any type of bombing out or real intensification. But hey, should still be a solid few hours in the morning.

I would love to alleviate your concerns but I'm having some of the same worries myself. Let's just put it this way, we should be in for a nice thump of snow sometime between roughly 7am-Noon before we have to even consider worrying about mixing, or at least that's the hope ha. Yes the heaviest rates may remain below the border but we should still be in for some nice amounts. Just enjoy whatever comes during the morning and the rest is gravy. The weather gods will have the final say, as they always do.

Yes but I'm afraid to ask why haha

Whiskey ginger out this way, double of course.

Lucky for you interest rates are low

GFS likes the longer duration event lasting into Friday but is weaker with the front end thump and keeps the heaviest rates south of the border. Just generally drier overall. The Rgem has been on the drier side as well, relatively speaking of course. But still, hmmmmmm

You aint kiddin. Although the MA folks would argue they have it worse and they wouldn't be wrong haha. You guys are in a good spot out there, longitude seems to matter more than latitude more times than not around here and obviously with anything having a coastal element to it. Not to mention your extra elevation never hurts the cause. Elevation is everything, so they say, eeeerrrrrr, someone says it, maybe it's just me ha.

Yes great analogy.

Yeah probably just run to run model noise but a fine line indeed. Agree with being fine with where we sit and letting the chips fall as they may. I'm at a low elevation spot here near route 30 and the sleet monster almost always bites me. Typically, once Lancaster City flips I know I'm toast within ten minutes or so. Just part of the deal around here more times than not anymore but a boy can hope!

That's the big X-factor at this point. I like the idea of some coastal interaction, just not sure how impressive it will be. All of the guidance allowing for it at this point seems to suggest that the wrap-around bands would be very light in nature. 1-2" of additional snow over the course of 12 hours wouldn't be very impactful but it would certainly pretty-up the scene ha. Lord knows we'll take whatever we can get.

Yeah the other Hi-res models like the ARW, NMMB, NSSL, etc. are starting to pick up on this as well. They're quite useful in this regard. Luckily most of the heaviest precip should fall before any changeover so we should be fine for a potent front-end thump. Gonna be a fun morning!

Someone always does! The next time a storm comes along where nobody busts low will be the first time And yes Eric is the best, seems to understand our local climo much better than the NWS guys.

Yep the man knows. This is what I was getting at earlier with the near-term Meso models picking up on the sleet intrusion as we progress through the day. The resolutions of the globals always struggle with those narrow layers. Already seeing that a bit with the NAM, even more so with the 3k. Hopefully those of us north of 30 can stave it off until the heaviest rates have come through, which it seems we will.

haha yes I know the feeling, just itching for something to look at. I'm right there with ya, always looking even when I know there's little value to be had. NAM looks almost unchanged to my eyes early on.

Yes it does have that two-parter look to it that we've seen on some globals for a while now. With that said, I put VERY little stock in the HRRR at anything past hours 8-10ish, just hot garbage at range. But it can be useful at sniffing out trends as the start time becomes imminent.

Overnight low here of 20. I see Bradford hit -1, although that's chump change compared to the -34 that Seagull Lake, MN bottomed out at, anyway.......currently 21/8 here with scattered high clouds. I think we'll start seeing the convection-allowing models pick up on the sneaky warm layers today and the increased chances for sleet intrusion along the southern tier counties but not before the initial morning thump brings us all a solid 4-8" of fluffy flakes. The standard northern shift inside of 24-36 hours seems likely as well but hopefully not to an extent that would bankrupt us southern folk, doubtful. WPC is on board with southern ridge and valley region/eastern CTP land being the best zone for solid totals. Onward and upward!

3k NAM is similar to the 12k, a bit less juicy but basically holds serve. Gotta love a good off-hour NAM run haha. I'll wait for the 0z suite but I think we're locking in here pretty good.

ask and you shall receive.....mind you the coastal is still going and starting to overspread MD and VA with more precip at this time, hold tight....

Yep, cut it in half and let's call it a day.