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TimB

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Everything posted by TimB

  1. TimB
    Everything so far is starting to suggest that we might be below freezing most of the day Thursday, but temps aloft don’t support snow during that timeframe. This can’t be good, unless you really want the crippling ice storm. Anyone?
  2. TimB
    NAM also has us below freezing all day Thursday from daybreak. More sleet than zr in Pittsburgh but the 1”+ ice totals are in southern Allegheny county.
  3. TimB
    12z HRRR (at the end of its range, of course) has us down to 33 by daybreak Thursday.
  4. TimB
    1/12/18? Did that start as rain?
  5. TimB
    NAM total is 0.90”. Steady light freezing rain during the day (0.36” by 4pm). Gets heavier after dark but would imagine some of that runs off.
  6. TimB
    More concerning is the fact that “crippling ice storm” is still on the table. 6z NAM is ugly in this regard. Nearly an inch of steady freezing rain starting Thursday morning and going through midnight. Saving grace might be that much of the event is during the day and temps are in the 31-32 range.
  7. TimB
    So the text of the winter storm watch says 3-6” of snow, but NWS’s maps show 1.3” in Allegheny County with a high end amount of 2-3”?
  8. TimB
    Also the 0z NAM had no redeeming qualities.
  9. TimB
    If that happened maybe we could get federal disaster funds and they could fix the bridge while they’re at it.
  10. TimB
    18z GFS keeps hope alive but does not allow the snow to linger through the day on Friday. Still a decent 3-6 event across the county.
  11. TimB
    The heavy freezing rain and 31 degrees thing that @RitualOfTheTroutmentioned last night. Can’t imagine it’d be a massive ice storm, which is probably good.
  12. TimB
    Would presume by morning we’ll have a first look at a NWS forecast that takes into account the main period of the event (Thursday night). ILN issued watches for their counties basically along and north of I-70 through western and central Ohio.
  13. TimB
    CPC still strongly suggests February temps will be above normal with the updated outlook issued today.
  14. TimB
    I especially liked their social media posts the other day encouraging people to read their forecast discussions.
  15. TimB
    I’d take a solid WWA* type event from a storm that wasn’t supposed to be ours any day of the week. *I understand that any WWA-type snow event with this system would likely be escalated to a WSW simply because of the ice potential.
  16. TimB
    I forgot the /s tag on my post.
  17. TimB
    A footnote at this point, but the GFS continues the good news with a solid advisory level event late in the weekend.
  18. TimB
    But that’s rough, to miss out on the bullseye and an epic storm by 50-75 miles and just get a garden variety 8-12 event. It’d be a topic of discussion in this thread for weeks.
  19. TimB
    Reeling us into something with massive disappointment potential. If this thing is likely going to fail us, I hope the models bear that out soon.
  20. TimB
    So it looks like about a third of an inch of zr, a ton of sleet, and snowfall that would be warning level in and of itself.
  21. TimB
    12z NAM took a big step SE. Still only rain here through 84 hours.
  22. TimB
    Knew I could count on your expert analysis to fill in my knowledge gaps regarding modeling bias. Much appreciated.
  23. TimB
    Of course the last panel of the 6z NAM has us at 46 and partly sunny at 18z Thursday. No joke.
  24. TimB
    Well there’s that, but then there was the event a couple weeks ago where it predicted the mixed precip debacle that would eventually cut our totals. Of course at this range, I believe it depicted significant icing, which didn’t happen in any form.
  25. TimB
    But if this thing is going to find a way to give us a decent snow (which I’m seriously doubting), you’d take a period of ice between the rain and the snow if that’s what had to happen to get us to snow, right?
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