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TimB

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Everything posted by TimB

  1. TimB
    That’s what I’m seeing. Best case we get a front end advisory level thump that melts as soon as it turns to rain and temps blast toward 50ish. Worst case we get 2” of straight rain.
  2. TimB
    Lots of time to iron out the details but it sure is looking like we get a colder pattern mid-next week, but as soon as it’s time for the storm it cuts and we torch, as is typical for Pittsburgh.
  3. TimB
    The last of the MLK bust melted from my yard today. I ordered myself a nice dinner via DoorDash to celebrate.
  4. TimB
    PIT is officially at 59, warmest day of 2022 so far.
  5. TimB
    12z for late next week- Euro: cutter, rainstorm GFS: miss south CMC: modest hit, a couple inches
  6. TimB
    Now all 3 models ram a cutter either through or just west of the area, which is less than ideal but it’s 9 days out. Canadian has the feature at least 24 hours earlier than the other two. I get the feeling the ensembles are somewhat better?
  7. TimB
    That’s Friday. If we push well into the 60s, it would be during the first half of the week.
  8. TimB
    It’s at least mildly interesting, which is more than we can say about anything we’ve had since the last storm that looked like that.
  9. TimB
    That’s probably accurate, and besides, the 0z Euro had us just barely on the bad side of a system mid-next week as the unseasonable warmth retreats. Probably will look totally different at 12z but the battle between warm and cold might still be ongoing. Edit: 12z is completely different. Unseasonably warm and humid. Would think as we get closer, the ens will trend toward the near-record temps on the ops.
  10. TimB
    I didn’t say it will be, I said I wouldn’t be surprised if it was.
  11. TimB
    Day 9-10 on pretty much every operational and ensemble model is the very long range? I understand we shouldn’t be tracking storms at that range but the upper pattern is fair game if everything is in good agreement, right?
  12. TimB
    This upcoming pattern sucks. February 2017, here we come. Wouldn’t be surprised to hit 70 before the month is over, for the 3rd year out of the last 6. Euro now has us pushing 70 by next Tuesday, GFS by Wednesday.
  13. TimB
    The Allegheny County split has held pretty strong so far. Hope these squalls can become a little more widespread.
  14. TimB
    Yeah our season total of 25.6” at the airport almost surely means your little snow desert microclimate is below 20”.
  15. TimB
    This is starting to feel like December. Check a few longer-range panels per day in both operational/ensemble models for a pattern change, see a lot of red on the 500 anomaly map, rinse and repeat. Only difference is in December it was highly likely there were more chances to come. Now met spring is within GFS range. Would be hard to give the winter on the whole much more than a C- if our season total doesn’t get to 30”.
  16. TimB
    Correct, hence my “all jokes aside” disclaimer. 56 in February happens probably close to every year.
  17. TimB
    It’s 17 degrees above normal, like 100 degrees in summer would be. All jokes aside, I know there’s much more variation in winter and that going 40 days without hitting 50 degrees is about a five year event and we’ve now done it two years in a row.
  18. TimB
    PIT has reached 56. We’re so good at torching.
  19. TimB
    This isn’t going to be a popular post, but if it’s going to be basically 100 degrees next week maybe we can get a 2/24/19 type wind event with the cutter.
  20. TimB
    2018 was like that for sure. Then 2020 and 2021 it made a return in April and May when it really wasn’t worth it.
  21. TimB
    Even good winters end like this these days. Look at last year. Also, it’s too late to salvage February. The end of the month is already almost in GFS/GEFS range without many signs of the torch letting up significantly after it arrives next week.
  22. TimB
    To an extent I agree. What looked like a promising stretch in February now looks like a shutout pattern. It’s more the idea that lately, spring here seems to come before the end of February more often than it doesn’t. The February heatwave of 2017 comes to mind, but I’d say even last year we were into spring starting the last week of February, and that was in a good February.
  23. TimB
    If I were trolling you on Reddit, you think I’d be obvious about it?
  24. TimB
    Umm…no?
  25. TimB
    It was less snow for people to be too lazy to shovel off of their sidewalks, walkways, outdoor steps, etc., which made life infinitely easier for some friends of mine who are gig economy workers, if that’s a silver lining.
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