TimB

I care about winter not ending on February 5th, which is what will have happened if we get next to nothing more. If we don’t get at least two more inches, we’re talking about historic late season snow futility. As in, at the least, never seen by anyone who is currently alive.

I wouldn’t go that far, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if we’ve seen our last trackable event.

I’d love to believe this but the past two years and current modeled pattern don’t exactly inspire confidence in this statement.

The problem as I see it is that the date beyond which it’s difficult to impossible to get anything other than a nuisance snowfall that melts a few hours after the sun comes up is basically in GEFS/CMCE range and the pattern between now and then looks almost dead as far as winter chances go. And as I detailed yesterday, if we truly don’t see any more snow, we’re dealing with the earliest end to winter in Pittsburgh’s history by some metrics.

It’s a good thing we got a few inches on the back end of that Feb 3-4 storm, because if we missed out on it, this scenario would be dangerously close to coming true.

Yeah, it’s really just one last shred of hope for the winter that started in mid-January and ended a few days after the calendar flipped to February.

Yeah, it’s bad. A third straight completely atrocious end to winter.

Once 1993 drops out of that average in 2030 it’ll drop significantly. That 34.1 contributes over 1.1” to a 30 year average.

Hard to envision a scenario where winter isn’t over. We’ve currently had 1.6” from Feb 6 on. Outside of a couple years in the 1880s (which we all know I question the accuracy of), we’ve never had less than 3.6” from February 6 until the end of the snowfall season. Normally I’d say we can pick up 2” in March, but we’ve gotten barely half that the last two years combined and the pattern for this March doesn’t look good.

Nice to see a little snow shower just before the sun goes down to whiten things up a little.

No, if anything, it did exactly what it was supposed to. But I think the point is it’s easier to stomach these defeats when there were no big winners.

I think he means the storm as a whole, across the northeast. On another note, PIT got 1.07” of rain, which brings our monthly total to 5.10”, making this the 7th wettest February of all time (2018, 1887, 1891, 1956, 1890, 2008*). *2008 was at 4.97” through 2/28 but recorded 0.48” on the 29th.

Some crazy gradients in GFS fantasy land.

In this case, our area of the entire NE quadrant of the US.

In other news, this will be the first February 24th since 2015 where the high temperature wasn’t at least 12 degrees above normal.

Does this one even need words?

0z and especially 6z GFS runs are a parade of storms that we’re on the wrong side of. Also, I saw a few pellets of sleet on the ground when I was outside this morning, which will probably be the only non-rain precip that occurs with this system.

This winter sucked. Just let us pretend we had one moral victory.

Yeah, last spring without thunderstorms was weird, then we go and get more tornadoes in October than in all of the previous Octobers combined.

Thunder snow and 11 degrees? I wonder if those conditions have ever been reported in Pittsburgh in 150+ years of record keeping.

GFS wants to bring a massive ridge to start met spring. Could you imagine a third snowless March in a row?

GFS appears to be the last domino to fall. Massive ridge develops mid to late next week in what was supposed to be a good cold pattern, bringing it into agreement with pretty much all the rest of the operational and ensemble models. Unbelievable. Why is it that even when most indicators and teleconnections would support a cold pattern, the models can flip this fast and converge on the solution of a warm pattern? Is it climate change? Something else? It’s frustrating as hell how hard it is to get a good pattern these days.

It’s just unbelievable how quick the models turned a largely BN period into a largely AN period. If the EC is right, we’ll be back in the upper 40s by Monday, which all the other models suggest should be a cold day.

You’re right, it didn’t belong in this thread, there’s a complaint thread for a reason. But yeah, these all day rainy days make me grouchy as all hell even in July and even more so during months when it should be snow.

And there it is…