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TimB

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  1. TimB
  2. TimB
    I’m pretty much right at 1100 feet and it’s sticking to the grass and even somewhat on my driveway (near the edges and not efficiently) with this heavier burst. Edit: heavy snow, big flakes sticking to everything to some degree or another.
  3. TimB
    Yeah, count on the 0z NAM, where it’s still 39 at 12z Saturday, coming to fruition. LOL
  4. TimB
    12z model suite spells disappointment for us. At least I have 4 days to accept that this, yet again, isn’t our storm and not be bitter watching snow pile up in the areas that always win (3/14/99 comes to mind - anyone remember that one?).
  5. TimB
    Only if 11” was the forecast, and PIT got 9” and someone’s backyard only got 7”. I personally would be happy with the 3.1” we need to get to 30 on the season and that’s probably doable.
  6. TimB
    PIT gusted to 62 as the front rolled through. Sustained wind of 49 on the 3:51 obs.
  7. TimB
    Yesterday’s low of 57 puts us into the record books. Interesting that Saturday afternoon was by far the warmer day this past weekend. Pretty impressive surge of warm air actually. HRRR nailed it.
  8. TimB
    18z GEFS had more 4”+ hits than misses for Saturday and the op got us close to 6”. I’m sure the timing of the cold air continues to slow down and screws us, but I’m not invested yet anyway.
  9. TimB
    Guess what… First 72 since the last day of our October heatwave (10/15/21).
  10. TimB
    At this point, that promising winter period around next weekend is looking shorter, warmer, and less snowy. It’s probably time to accept that spring is here and has been since February 6th.
  11. TimB
    Hard to believe it’s already been a month since our last 1” snowfall.
  12. TimB
    An interesting read. Sounds like he isn’t buying the operational models and ensembles showing a deep, fairly persistent trough with storm chances in the mid/longer term. Don’t get me wrong, I’d love for the more wintry pattern to come to fruition, but I could just as easily see it being a few coldish days with flurries and highs a few degrees either side of 40.
  13. TimB
    My god, that long range 18z GFS/GEFS is a dream for those who want another period of winter. A double digit snowfall, record cold, a massive, deep trough with staying power. Too bad it’s 8+ days away.
  14. TimB
    I have to admit I haven’t paid much attention to detail on the models recently. Any chance we can get the storm early next week to trend favorably for us, or is that a bridge too far? 0z EC seems to have it in the “almost good enough” zone.
  15. TimB
    Only skimmed, but the takeaway is that even if the 6z/18z is worse overall than 0z/12z, it’s actually as good or better through about D6-7?
  16. TimB
    But there has to be some value to them, they wouldn’t just run them for fun.
  17. TimB
    It’s probably all anecdotal, don’t take any of that seriously.
  18. TimB
    That’s @Ahoff’s area of complaint. We always underperform in the summer and it gets hotter in Syracuse and Burlington than it does here, or something like that.
  19. TimB
    Would say 70 is pretty likely if the forecast stays mid to upper 60s. We always overperform on temps, today was another example - forecast high was 53 or 54, PIT got to 58.
  20. TimB
    I care about winter not ending on February 5th, which is what will have happened if we get next to nothing more. If we don’t get at least two more inches, we’re talking about historic late season snow futility. As in, at the least, never seen by anyone who is currently alive.
  21. TimB
    I wouldn’t go that far, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if we’ve seen our last trackable event.
  22. TimB
    I’d love to believe this but the past two years and current modeled pattern don’t exactly inspire confidence in this statement.
  23. TimB
    The problem as I see it is that the date beyond which it’s difficult to impossible to get anything other than a nuisance snowfall that melts a few hours after the sun comes up is basically in GEFS/CMCE range and the pattern between now and then looks almost dead as far as winter chances go. And as I detailed yesterday, if we truly don’t see any more snow, we’re dealing with the earliest end to winter in Pittsburgh’s history by some metrics.
  24. TimB
    It’s a good thing we got a few inches on the back end of that Feb 3-4 storm, because if we missed out on it, this scenario would be dangerously close to coming true.
  25. TimB
    Yeah, it’s really just one last shred of hope for the winter that started in mid-January and ended a few days after the calendar flipped to February.
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