TimB

That’s a nasty gradient on the 18z GFS, but good lord, where it maxes out, it maxes out. GEFS mean looks great too, still over 6” for that event.

Euro brought it back into a decent area and not way south, which was nice to see. Fringes us verbatim but room to improve. As for the “going to be disappointment somewhere,” absolutely I understand that’s the case. But even the worst of winters get us one advisory level event. Think 19-20. We had that high end advisory snow in February. 16-17 had a few low end advisory type events. 15-16, same deal. Even 97-98. It’s been a long time since we have gone an entire winter without even one advisory level event (if ever, I didn’t go back much further).

And it’s gone on the 12z. Hope yinz enjoyed it while it lasted.

And it’s basically an advisory level event at 6z. I’d still take it. GEFS mean for that event is up close to 6”. Unfortunately it’s an outlier.

GEFS mean went down significantly at 18z, so unfortunately it’s only a matter of time before this goes away.

2nd time this winter the GFS has depicted Pittsburgh’s largest snowstorm on record. And we know what happened the first time. An Arctic front with a dusting of snow and 3 days of cold.

We won’t even get that, we’ll get the solution all of the other models are still showing. Nothing.

Don’t look at the 12z GFS. That thing is a monster. Just a casual 8” in 3 hours at the height of the storm.

Point me to a century old record that was broken out west. I’m talking the big ones, like monthly temperature records or total seasonal snowfall records like the ones being broken in the east, not some piddly daily record.

GFS got on board at 6z with a better look for that storm. GEFS ensemble mean is up over 4” for that period. The biggest concern (and a major one) is that the Euro/EPS are having none of it.

Seems pretty likely we don’t see any more measurable snow in February, which will also make this the least snowy February ever at 0.2”. The current record is 0.5”.

It’s official. Three 70 degree days in the same month in winter for the first time ever.

The current 30 year normal is actually 44.1”, but otherwise this is a good write up.

Can safely throw out #1 too, since it’s missing a bunch of days of data. The real record is probably that 1931-32 winter, if it counts.

Outside of Buffalo and a few locations in Maine, everyone in the east is nowhere even close to normal snowfall. Pathetic.

I take that back. Today got to 60 just after midnight.

I think we’re in 7th for the YTD period for mean temp. 1990 is the only year currently ahead of us from the airport.

Since a lot of the discussion to this point was related to 70s in February, that’s probably the more salient point here. After a period of 60 years where it didn’t occur even once, we’ve had 10 since 1997, and half of those have been since 2017.

I’ll agree with you here. More unusual was probably the lack of many such days in Jan-Feb 2021-2022. A 60 degree day in February really is relatively normal, and technically we’ve only had two this February so far (it just so happens that both of them were in the 70s).

I’m not entirely certain he’s denying it, but rather (correctly) pointing out that this garbage winter can’t be completely 100% attributed to it. The patterns are pretty stark, but the last two winters were fine.

Not in a single month it didn’t.

December: January: February: Euro for 2/23: CMC for 2/23: No winter month has ever gotten to 70 degrees three times. It’s looking possible.

Yeah, you’re right, everything we’ve had so far is precedented in some way, whether it’s with really old data or I’m cherry picking stats. But the models are converging on a solution within a week that would give us an unprecedented, not that obscure stat. Hint: We tied a record yesterday that we very well might have the opportunity to break next week. Something that’s quite literally never happened in any winter month ever.

And just like that, next week’s hope is gone. The last week of meteorological winter, at that. Truly more abysmal than 2019-20, and I was hoping that wasn’t possible.

70 has been attained. 3rd time in history that this has happened twice by 2/15.