TimB

But there’s still Wednesday to hold out what little hope we have for this week and winter. Lord knows the GFS solution where it’s cold next weekend after a little clipper is being tossed on sight in favor of the euro torch by anyone doing any degree of forecasting, and it’s shown it for like 7 runs in a row now.

GFS seems completely lost. It’s way out of phase with the Euro even a week out, and same goes for the ensembles. It’s been consistent with pushing an Arctic front through here about a week from now, and all other guidance seems to be warm for that period.

It’s not a bad snow to rain to snow setup. Ukie looks even better for what it’s worth. Drops warning level snow in 6 hours before the changeover. GEFS ensemble mean deteriorated from 18z tho. I’m ready to be hurt.

The 18z GFS is fantastic! A nice little borderline advisory level event Sunday and a nice thump of very heavy snow at daybreak Wednesday! What’s not to love! Better?

18z GFS doing 18z things. I don’t imagine anyone here would be unhappy if next week played out that way, but it’s probably a pipe dream.

Really starting to look like the window closes quickly again if the upcoming week fails us. Euro and EPS are already saying warm next weekend.

3k NAM is probably the ceiling for the Sunday event. Drops a clean 3” of all snow, but of course that’s still in the end of its range. NWS is carrying next to nothing and mostly rain. Is it over?

Euro is still holding onto a scenario where it isn’t complete garbage and we get decent snow on the front end, but we all know the warm air always comes in way faster than modeled.

Can’t be any p-type issues if there’s no precip!

Sun’s out. Hopefully that brings the storms later.

Let’s get some good severe tonight that knocks out the power for several days so we don’t have to look at these progressively more depressing model runs.

CMC looks like it’s going to agree. Once again, it’s over.

CMC is even worse. Has the low center on the VA/NC line near the coast, then runs it up the coast and it’s raining in Pittsburgh.

Sun-Mon is almost workable on the GFS. Wed is a disaster.

The ensembles still look kind of acceptable, I guess.

Every single model that ran overnight continues our misery next week and proves that it was silly that we ever hoped for something good. Unreal.

I’d buy what the 18z GFS is selling. Sunday-Monday is a bust but Wednesday is a borderline advisory/warning level event and there’s another storm the following weekend, but that’s way too far out to make any judgments.

Euro is a winner with the Wednesday storm.

Pretty much certain that we’ll make it through Saturday without a 2” daily snowfall since last March, which would be 300 days without a 2” snowfall. This will be the 9th time this century (23 years, 9/23 = 39%). Prior to 2000, that occurred 16 times in 120 years (16/120 = 13%).

Anyhow, my bar for next week is set pretty low. 3-4” combined from the two storms would make me happy.

So advantage at 18z to a model that cuts both storms in a way that absolutely sucks for us and gives us less than an inch combined. I’m ready for more misery.

Euro gives us a decent snow with the Sun-Mon storm and misses us well to the east with the one later in the week.

I’m encouraged by the trends. Euro has that decent advisory level storm about a week from now. I suspect that may be too early for anything good, but there’s a strong ensemble signal for something late next week. Ensembles generally show us winning the battle with the southeast ridge. Canadian ensemble looks pretty darn good even later in the period if you ask me, on the fringes of a potential Arctic outbreak in the Midwest and still away from the southeast ridge, so fingers crossed that keeps us in the storm track.

To that point, this doesn’t look half bad for an ensemble so far out. I know we’re looking for more than just an inch or two, but it’s probably not bad to have over a 1 in 4 chance of at least an inch of snow on D11.

It’ll probably be 11 to be honest.