SnowenOutThere

Congrats to @Terpeast for correctly predicting by 0z Saturday runs we’d have an answer! 

Well this can’t get much worse, radio show anyone? 

Since were pulling every model out we can I'd like it to be known that the JMA is currently out to 72 

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

ICON will stay on the GFS team by the early look

may be slightly more progressive than 6z but considering 6z was almost too northwest thats not a bad thing. 

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

ICON heights backing more out ahead of storm. Doubt this ends like the euro.

The PNA ridge is def taller than both the 0z and 6z runs so far and doesn't appear to have the same kicker type feature the Euro does.

Just now, CAPE said:

6z EPS a bit further southeast.

That's sorta surprising, would have expected a consensus to start forming by now instead of them growing more apart. 

58 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Let it finish dude lol

And remember that the 10:1 ratios shown may be too low for this event too

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Gfs looks significantly more amped than 0z so far. 

lots more vorticity and surface precip out to hour 90

Just now, Heisy said:

.

I can’t believe someone posted the long range NAM, at least it’s not the long range RGEM … wait a minute 

18 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

So, 12z summary of 120-144 OP runs:

CMC - west/rain95/snow favored spots

UKMET - west decent snow/bit of snow for 95

GFS - nice for all

Euro - what storm?

ICON - east/meh/nothingburger

Let's take the median ??

Aren't you forgetting someone? 

Just now, stormtracker said:

So far a bit more S and E than 6z

Following wave looks slightly maybe slightly less amped so far as well as the first one, either way it looks pretty similar wave strength wise to 6z through. Agree its all further south east as well. 

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

but I don't even know if that is necessarily a good thing, ultimately I think the two things that matter most are that the initial wave doesn't amplify at all to leave space for the next, and that the next one is more amplified.  

The lead wave looks a little less amped for what its worth. 

3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Would rather 6 inches over 24 hours than 24 inches over 6 hours.  Just like to watch it snow.  

You’d pass on 4 inches of snow an hour rates for hours? 

Just now, Terpeast said:

Looks like the euro moved closer to the GFS/CMC solutions, but remains slightly more amped but not quite fully phased.

Still a low confidence/highly uncertain forecast, but we will have more cold air around this time. That's one thing for certain.

Its typically a good sign when the snow maps posted will be Kuchera instead of our usual 10:1.

1 minute ago, Ji said:

one of the worst 18z happy runs i have ever seen

just wait till the hour 300+ HECS

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

I lost an Autel drone a few winters ago in 35-40mph winds  

Almost lost my mini 2 in a summer thunderstorm when the gust front hit but at the same time the footage was awesome.  

I’m not sure what it says about me but I’m extremely tempted to fly my drone up and see what happens … for science ofc 

18 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Picked up the kids from the bus stop and my 5th grader was *raging* at her strings concert being cancelled this evening. So I guess some students think it's dumb to cancel activities for gusty rain.

Was pouring and windy for a bit, but it's slowed down over the past few minutes. Looks like it should be pretty interesting with in the next hour.

Those students are objectively wrong

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

I'm honestly shocked that Fairfax County hasn't made the call, given the other counties doing so. I guess they figure they didn't do it early enough, so they'll stick to their guns and not piss off the folks whose daily routines it would upset.

I'm pretty ambivalent about it, to be honest.

I’m very NOT ambivalent about it, please just let me go home or give kids who go home early excused absences …

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I think Ohio deserves 3 blizzards in a week so I’m good with this solution

I mean they do live in Ohio so they probably need it more than us 

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

The snow in Arkansas effect being seen finally!

Maybe the model is finally taking the geese migrations into account!

The 3k Nam does the @psuhoffman way to victory and keeps the 850s considerably cooler during that critical 3 hour window, just a tick or two more and even the immediate suburbs would be on the snowy side. 

On 1/3/2024 at 4:43 PM, SnowenOutThere said:

I think we got one last were so back cycle left, starting at 6z and peaking 18z tomorrow with some ridiculous NAM run

All is progressing according to my plan