SnowenOutThere

My final point on this is this equation. Feel free to ignore it, discard it, call it wrong or whatever else. Just think through what it might be saying IF its true (which for the record it is and is in a textbook from a hundred years ago!)

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Cobalt you’re 100% but please delete and just ignore that jackass. He is baiting you. And worse when he gets you to engage in the more political aspects then suddenly someone finds a mod and cries and then the whole thing gets shut down. It’s the same game. He is baiting you. Delete and move on. Anyone dumb enough to believe what he said isn’t worth your time and is too stupid to understand the science you’re using to prove your point anyways. 

Yk it’s bait when we have people who’s never post in here normally saying shit. Not quite sure why we even tolerate them at all frankly 

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

This here...that's what I had assumed the changed would be. But I don't remember this stuff happening before 2016 or us having discussions about perfect track rainstorms in February. In fact I distinctly remember a snowfall in 2015 where it was 50⁰+ the day before and we were are thermostat watching...and the next day we got several inches! It all just feels sudden to me.

I mean PSU can answer this better than me (after all I was too young to remember a time before perfect rainstorm tracking) but what I assume is that before the significant warming events of the 2012 and 2016 ninos which some may argue set new climate baselines the ability for us to get those setups was easier. Though, I'm sure you were already losing some of those setups on the margins but no one quite cared as it still was snowing enough. Now its flipped where more often than not they fail... so it all seems sudden. Fortunately I never got to experience that pre climate hell baseline so I'll never know what we've lost. Though, even last winter that January storm we just missed a real snowstorm by a factor of a couple degrees. Additionally, you got knock on effects of thermal boundaries, storm track, jet stream, etc shifting around. 

Beautiful day out getting to near 60 degrees and sunny. Last of the snow melting away with maybe 30% coverage. Honestly, I've loved the snow but man it made hiking and most of my activities impossible. Glad to see it go. 

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So 2F warmer...did the effects somehow accelerate after 2016? Because I'm sure 2014 or 15 had setups like this that worked, didn't they?

I think PSU would agree with my take on this but its never quite that easy. Its background presence has been increasing. Some setups might still be cold enough, some setups wont be. Over time our marginal setups will only become more likely to fall on the not cold enough side. So its not like some year will mark the end of our marginal setups forever, instead its a slow decline. Ofc to not make this political this phenomenon is unique to only snowstorms and has no broader causes, effects or solutions.

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The high resolution models can pick up on them but the issue here is the higher mountains in our area are southwest and in this case south of the thermal boundary that sets up. The high resolution do show more snow on Catoctin and parrs ridge in Maryland. 

I assume by thermal boundary you mean more upper air 925-850mb level?

16 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

You guys are going to argue until the cows fart all the way home. There is a main forum thread for this. We have warming. Let's just leave that here. Go argue why over in the other thread 

We are an atmospheric science board so why is it suddenly controversial to discus a whole field of it? Seriously it’s like saying we couldn’t discuss 500mb height maps or vort maps because they’re “political”. They both directly impact our storms and climate zones. It is what it is

42 minutes ago, bncho said:

It started with CO2 emissions. By itself it warmed the environment (a little bit) but more importantly it kickstarted a positive feedback loop with water vapor, which is also a pretty potent greenhouse gas (albeit not to the extent of CO2 when comparing it molecule by molecule). Warmer temps can hold more water vapor, so the water vapor traps more heat, and the even warmer air can hold even more water vapor, so the additional water vapor traps even more heat, etc., etc., there's your positive feedback loop (also ice melting = less radiational energy reflected = warmer temps, another positive feedback loop). So with the increasing amount of CO2 emissions every year this loop only increases in rate over time.

I don't know too much about methane and CFCS so i didn't mention them. It would be much appreciated to tell me more about those greenhouse gases.

Eh technically the h20 vapor feedback is less important than you’d think. When I was younger I thought the same thing but it turns out the lifetime of water vapor is so low it prevents this buildup. Ofc, it’s still significant to our warming but not doomsday feedback look. Methane and permafrost release is more concerning but we also have some negative feedback loops for now. 

2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Did nobody post the 3k? Wtf?

2 hours ago, paulythegun said:

12z RFFS (pronounced Arfs!) model. Used 10 to 1 to distort the snow upward

Boutta hit that half foot of snow in Shenandoah fr

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

For the last time Chuck we used to be able to get snow in hostile pac regimes. 
 

look at this sounding for Westminster while it’s raining.  It’s 33-34 in the boundary layer. Cold enough everywhere else. The boundary has warmed 2f since 1970. 

So explain to me how is the fact it’s 2f warmer not hurting our snow chances tomorrow when it’s 2f too warm?  I’m listening. Explain the math to me. 

Quick question for you but are the models getting the high peaks of our mountains correct and if so why aren’t they snowing? Hypothetically they should be 6-8 degrees cooler than surrounding valleys and snow but they don’t seem to show that 

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

debate. If you want to claim it’s not human fine. That’s political we don’t have to debate that.

It really isn’t. It’s just math. The math equation states there are three factors which influence earths surface temperature. 1. Solar forcing (sunspots vary it by .001% so sure .001% of our warming is natural best case) 2. Albedo 3. Atmospheric absorption. Now, only molecules which undergo a vibrational transformation when impacted with solar radiation of a certain wavelength are greenhouse gasses (hence why nitrogen or oxygen in their own don’t increase heat). Can you guess those molecules? CO2, methane, cfcs, h20, etc. now what molecules do we pump into the atmosphere? It’s not political. 

32 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Brother. We wont see snow out here either. 

Yeah you wont at winchesters weak ass 1000ft elevation but I’m talking 3000ft+. You basically transform the whole climate regime as you lose close to 8 whole degrees adiabatically! Ofc, this storm isn’t ideal for the elevation component as it’s flooding warmth even up to 850 in some runs with warm air but it’s well within the realm of possibility to get snow there.  

I mean moist adiabatic lapse rate is around 4 degrees Fahrenheit per 1000 feet so if you're just looking to see snow and willing to drive out to the mountains/Shenandoah we are really just focusing on the 850mb and 925mb temps to be at 0 or below. As long as we have that we should be good for the mountains. 

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

we’ll see where things end up! I’d spend an afternoon to hunt 2-4” for sure. 

Highk a 2-4in non elevation dependent is the best to hike up in. Keeps the roads passable but at the top of the mountain you get 6+

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

it's still over 100 out and things are close...stop over reacting to every run.  It's unlikely but the solution we need is a minor adjustment still well within the margin or error of what guidance is currently showing.  I think because this showed up 15 days out as a threat window...and we've been tracking it SOOOO long...people think it's closer than it is and are reacting to every run like we are 48 hours out and a trend means...thats it..this is the final solution.  We are still 5 days away, time for things to wobble one away or the other.  We need a slightly stronger storm that takes a perfect track.  That is going to be difficult..we will need luck...but its not like we need some HUGE adjustment from what guidance is showing.  Depending on where you're located of course...

Agree hard with this. The storm is as far out as the Jan 25th storm was when it was showing a flush hit of 2+ feet of snow! Things can still change majorly, who knows this might evolve into a cutter to Chicago or a storm which doesn't even get precip into VA.  

41 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

tourneys

1 minute ago, Paleocene said:

Paleocene's Sky Stuff Rankings (I like the  I guess)

1) Extremely low AQI / high pressure days with zero cloud cover and deep blue sky, particularly from July - October (but also other months)

2) Sunny days in February - March when the sun angle starts increasing but the leaves aren't out yet, and everything is lit very brightly in profile by the still angled rays of the sun, especially houses/buildings/trees

3) Obligatory SN+

4) When it absolutely rains buckets and sheets of rain and it's like we're in south florida

Absolutely great list. I personally like the sunny days within 10 days of the winter equinox as you get a very pastel sun/light which is very good for landscape photography compared to the more harsh summer light. 

Since this sorta stuff often ends up in this thread I'll put it here too

While we all wait for the Euro I made a fun thread that reminds us why we actually do this hobby! Please add your own contrabutions!

Thought it was time for another fun thread! Curious to know what everyone's favorite thing that happens in the sky. Of course, we all know the basic answers of snow/severe but I'm hoping to get some more in depth answers. For example snow squalls or orthographic events instead of just plain snow! Personally my favorite meteorological events are Hurricane Sunsets/Sunrises due to the upper anticyclone spreading out high level cirrus wave clouds which capture the sun extremely well to get brilliant sunsets. A non meteorological pick would be Blood Moons as I just think they're neat to be both predictable/easy while still really cool. Visual examples of my own work for each! 

30 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yup...lol.  we gone from warm cutter to cold cirrus.    

I wouldn't quite call it cold cirrus. Maybe slightly above seasonable cirrus? 

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

And right after this sniveling post, the Euro came back.  Will it be right?  Probably not, but i don’t  know that enough to make declarative statement about what I’m tracking.  Go write a nasty PM to ECMWF about it.  

I bet the euro doesn’t even make 150,000 dollars a year

Can feel the sun already this morning. At around 80% coverage of sleet but expecting that to fall off today. My guess for the high will be 64 degrees.  

6 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Nice? Maaaaan ain't nobody but the heat misers want that right now, lol But a pronounced SER would fit nina clomo though...

If it ain’t going to snow we might as well torch. I’m done freezing my ass off walking to class.