SnowenOutThere

On 10/21/2026 at 10:46 PM, bncho said:

This is a great post. I'm currently reading about a book about the carbon cycle and global warming, so hopefully I'll be able to understand more about this topic!

Thank you, I try to share what I learn in my courses with the forum to pass it forward. Also, it's nice that you're learning all that stuff. If you ever have questions about the global climate response piece I can help you with that (carbon cycle wise I've lost most of that knowledge post AP environmental science in Junior year). While learning the concepts might not (but hopefully does) feel interesting they lay the groundwork for understanding the atmosphere as a dynamic system. I don't know what you plan to major in (you have a lot of years to figure that out, if you want to go to college that is) but if it's related to atmospheric science/environmental science you will thank yourself for paying attention now. 

On 10/22/2026 at 10:16 AM, psuhoffman said:

100%

I commend your effort, but we've had this discussion before and the handful of people in here who need to hear that again I don't think are on a cognitive level capable of understanding it.  And before you come for my head, yes that makes me sound incredibly conceited, but the few of you I am talking about (and you know who you are) have given me absolutely no objective evidence to the contrary.  

I understand your feeling on this but I truly believe that most everyone in this subforum is capable of understanding the math behind our climate; after all, it's a mix of algebra and the most basics of calculus alongside understanding some concepts (those being the solar constant, albedo effect, and greenhouse gas effect).

However, some very influential people have a strong vested interest in creating a reality where that equation is wrong. I do not blame the people for believing in that reality - no one wants to be wrong after all. That said, if there is one thing that my social psychology class has taught me it is that attitude change requires the ability to admit you're wrong which is a very difficult thing for people to do. The people who don't believe in climate change aren't stupid, they aren't evil, and they aren't backwards. They are humans. Yes, humans who are wrong on the issue, and yes humans who actions cause real harm, but you aren't ever going to change their minds by pretending they are somehow below you. If you truly care about changing other peoples minds then you need to put aside malice and extend empathy towards them with how you explain the concept. Ultimately, we are all extremely susceptible creatures to outside influences and the only way we can really understand one another is through seeing people as people and not a walking conglomeration of ideas.

If you are one of the posters who disagree with me on climate change I want to say two things directly to you. 1. Thank you for reading this far. 2. Think about who benefits from a world where climate change doesn't exist. Think about how much political power and influence those groups have to loose if climate action occurs. Think about if those groups truly have your best intentions at heart of if they are trying to use you as a voting block to hold onto their power. Just think about it for a minute or two the next time year hear/read an anti-climate change ad or paper - and think about where the money for that ad came from. 

If you can't tell this moral goes beyond climate change for me.

7 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah. With how east based this is, i think it will try to default to this pattern. Maybe the strat warming will somehow shake this up and give us something better

I'm not sure a favorable Atlantic side would even save us with flow off the Pacific like that. Even if we got a strong -NAO pattern what would our cold air source be? I suppose you could try to get homegrown air from Canada but with an active STJ I wonder if you could ever reduce heat fluxes from the south enough to allow a real buildup of cold air. 

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

New England color is allegedly one of the best years in a long time. Hoping we get a good one too. 

West Virginia color was pretty good when I was out there in early October. Driving through Monetary area last weekend after my snow hike and the colors were in peak and looked pretty. Then again, areas further west and south of NOVA were spared from the drought, and so far colors around Charlottesville haven’t been great.   

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

There is always variability, but within the variability is a trend.  December is the Winter month most affected by warming.  Both in Temps and Snowfall.  We are losing it as a winter month basically.  It is what it is.  

It's basic climatology driving this. The oceans have so far acted as the heat sink for the increased radiation that the strengthened greenhouse effect back-radiates to Earth. This is because their heat capacity is so much larger than air, and they release this heat in the form of latent/sensible heat flux when cold airmasses move over them in fall/winter. If you keep warming up the oceans it takes longer for them to cool off in fall and therefore you get increased temperatures from the latent/sensible heat flux off them. Our December warming is an exam question becoming reality. 

2 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

The is peak fall weather, but damn is it boring.

Might be the shortest AFD I've read put out by LWX this morning

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
931 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Coastal Flood Advisories issued through Thursday afternoon for
an extended period of minor tidal flooding.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures are expected
  through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures are expected
through early next week.

Surface high pressure continues to build north of the forecast area
through the end of the week, yielding dry conditions, seasonal
temperatures, and limited cloud cover. High temperatures will be
in the 60s to near 70s each day with overnight lows in the 30s to
mid 40s.

High pressure will build southward out of southeastern Canada and
eastern Great Lakes region Saturday through Tuesday. Dry conditions
are expected each day. There could be some areas of frost Saturday
morning. Temperatures will start out chilly Saturday with highs 5 to
7 degrees below average and highs generally in the upper 50s to
lower 60s. By Sunday, temperatures will be more seasonable. Monday
will encounter highs approaching or reaching the 70 degree mark. By
Tuesday, temperatures may be knocked down to seasonable once again.
Highs in the middle 60s.

2 hours ago, scope1 said:

Funny how “worst of winter” and “big snowstorms” seems to follow a population density map of the US every year in these online forecasts. Must be a coincidence 

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

A permanent low all winter there would NOT be the same as a transient low there following a favorable pattern for cold.  A permanent strong low just off the Pac NW would flood the CONUS with mild pac puke airmass.  

This is most likely an ignorant question but do we know if the seasonal models are advertising a permanent low or transient lows in that area?

33 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I think you’ve just about summed it up right there… saving me half of the effort.

All the super nino analogs are only partial matches, and we’ve never had it this east based.

If I had to guess what would happen in the atmosphere this winter, the N Pac low would be right up against the western canada coast, and the southern trough would be pulled west, making it one longwave trough rather than two separate troughs. Not saying we’ll get a SE ridge, we’ll still have a screaming STJ but embedded within a zonal flow east of the rockies, which would also bring us milder temps on the mean.

Still an elevated chance for a big one compared to all winters, but not compared to other favorable ninos. If I were a betting man, I’d pass on the big one this year.

As far as temps go, thinking 4-6 AN DJF, and BN snow. Way above AN precip though mostly rain. Maybe a surprise march snow.

 

 

Don't have your same skillset but that sounds reasonable. Would need NAO help to get a favorable storm track and to trap in cold air to have a shot. Otherwise I agree that it'll be hard forcing storms to either not cut or to have any cold air in place. Will probably get a lot of warm versions of last January's big sleet storm but with a further west track. Hopefully we get things to line up enough for the mountains to get some major storms with all the precip - but that's a question I don't know the answer to. 

5 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Believe snowshoe top of mountain has their first flakes of the season https://www.snowshoemtn.com/media-room/skidder-slope-live-cam. Think I'll head out to the mountains and try to catch the jet streak induced precip. 

It’s snowing! Still on the mountain (some cell service) and it’s alternating between bursts of dendrites and sleety rain. Moss is a bit white. Totally worth the trip.

Believe snowshoe top of mountain has their first flakes of the season https://www.snowshoemtn.com/media-room/skidder-slope-live-cam. Think I'll head out to the mountains and try to catch the jet streak induced precip. 

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

It's definitely trying - can see significant thinning on visible sat. 

Sun is out in Charlottesville! 

1 minute ago, wxmeddler said:

Very distinct this morning.

Love when we get a wedge like this, makes for some easy and great photography if you're willing to wake with the sun. 

Also, went out and drove 30 minutes to the Rockfish Valley Overlook off the blue ridge parkway! Got an amazing sunrise knowing the valley's would be in the cloud deck. 

12 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

@SnowenOutThere I think your instinct is right. That’s a very marginal sounding between drizzle and a little snizzle. 

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Personally I wouldn’t take that drive. Save it for later. 

50 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

Looks slightly too warm here, and this morning I don’t think has gone the right direction so far.
I need to see if I can make a trip next month when the good stuff starts happening at elevation.

Thank you all. Agree that the 6z run really didn't go the right way... but, the 12z runs are interesting. They manage get a band of precip with lift from a deeper H5 trough and saturate the DGZ. Will need to monitor and if the 18z and 0z runs show it then I think it might be worth it. Wouldn't really be upslope, but just orthographic cooling of a band of precip which feels less risky to chase. 

Both HRRR and NAM show first snows for the mountains this Saturday morning. Considering a hike out there but the soundings seem fishy. 

Would there even be enough of a layer for precipitation to occur? If so, would any snowflakes even form or would I get to hike in cloudy drizzle? Don't know the answers would love some help from our mets @WxUSAF @MillvilleWx @Eskimo Joe I plan to head out and try and hike early Saturday morning at the Cheat Mountain range at 4200-4400 feet and would love to make sure I don't drive 3 hours to hike in a cold, windy, freezing rain fog. 

16 minutes ago, bncho said:

It actually gives us three separate snow storms that run starting October 25th. 

Had a nice late sunset with a moon over the South Lawn tonight. 

14 minutes ago, bncho said:

It's an insane meteorological solution. The low I've been discussing in the long range thread somehow cuts off and generates its own cold air. No way its right but was funny to see. I'll miss the NAM. 

22 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Simon had become quite the microcane. Pretty eye this evening 

Currently it has one of the weirdest look's I've seen a hurricane take on. 

NAM'ED (might be one of our last ones)

On 10/10/2026 at 8:09 PM, SnowenOutThere said:

People are sleeping on what could be the first snowfall event of the season for parts of our subforum next weekend! Both the CMC, GFS, GFS AI, and GFS/CMC model ens are on board for accumulating snow for the ridges in WV, though the Euro hasn't bought on yet. The setup makes sense, a strong early season trough will spur upslope snow showers after the front passage with some aid from the Great Lakes. 

Currently, this is forecasted to take place during the night too which helps with thermals, though the GFS has them bottom out in the mid 20s so there's some room for front timing. Of course, this is still far out in the future and a weaker frontal passage, more progressive trough, or any number of factors could ruin the setup, but it's worth paying attention to for an early snow chase to see both fall foliage in the valleys and snow at the peaks. 

Alright, enough time has passed to throw this solution out the window. So what's figure out what went wrong as an exercise for this winter.

So, our setup relied on a branch of the NS detaching and creating an unusually deep trough over the east coast in order to bring both cold air and the correct wind flow (NNW) to catch moisture from the lakes. Now, what initially would cause this NS trough? Turns out it was an interaction with a SW wave helping to pull it down (GFS run from when it was snowy)

Compare that to it's current run.

Though we still have our two main players it's interesting how different the circumstance is. Firstly, the interaction is occurring further east, which obviously hurts us. However, what is most interesting is that blob of vorticity over central Mexico as its a Hurricane ejecting it's energy eastward and thus pulling the pattern to be progressive. On the old runs the GFS brought it out to sea instead. 

Look at the knock on effects it has! On the old run you have a near textbook PNA ridge 

Now, you can see how there is more energy getting held underneath the ridge (the Hurricane's remains are now in there) which causes a flatter, and thus less blocky, ridge.

Some other things you can notice is the previously detached low upstream of our trough has now morphed with it, which reduces the blocking pattern, and that the Artic in general is less amplified than before. All in all, pretty much everything went the wrong way for the mountains to pick up a significant snowstorm. 

Now, the reason I did this is 1. I'm bored and just took a climatology exam 2. To warmup for winter 3. To see how the models did. As mentioned in my first post nearly all models but the operational Euro had a pattern conducive to accumulating snow, and the reason the Euro didn't is because even back over the weekend it was correctly modeling the tropical impact over Mexico. This should be a lesson against trusting the AI models, as even they were wrong. Furthermore, the hurricane change was within 5 days from this weekend, and it was a dramatic miss, which should call into question any forecast beyond day 4 for synoptics (assuming our current funding for NOAA's soundings and data collection stays the same). Frankly, I wonder if our bad miss on the ice/snow line for last January's storm would've happened if we weren't cutting their data intake as it was a huge miss by our modeling for the storm track and impacts even at day 3. The bottom line of this post is we need to be extremely cautious in trusting the models come this winter. They simply are not preforming as well as in years past when it comes to what matters for us. I personally would not even trust the general synoptic pattern outside of day 3.  

Mets, or anyone else, please let me know how I did or if my reasoning was solid! 

Around 3.1 according to nearby gauges in Charlottesville, probably had some upslope enhancement, and there are still puddles on the side streets. Home gauge in NOVA shows a respectable 2.9 inches of rain as well. Do wonder if this storm bears as a forewarning of what we might expect this winter if we get more inland storm tracks due to a warmer baroclinic boundary pushing inland. 

First mention of winter wx in the morning AFD!

Behind the frontal system, surface high pressure builds over the
central CONUS beginning on Friday before shifting eastward. A tight
pressure gradient between the surface high and the departing low
pressure system leads to breezy conditions across the forecast area
Friday night into Saturday. Northwest winds gust 20 to 30 knots,
with higher elevations gusting up to 40 knots. Wind headlines may be
needed across the higher elevations but we will continue to monitor.
It`s also worth mentioning that with gusty northwest winds, upslope
snow showers are possible along the Alleghenies on Saturday with
high temperatures staying in the 30s across the ridges. Little to no
accumulation is expected although the first flakes of the season are
possible.

Classes posted for spring semester and I'll finally get to take the course I've been waiting for! Currently with the professor as he teaches Intro to Climatology or the grad level version of my Atmosphere and Weather course I took last fall and he's been great (test tomorrow though). Excited to learn some more stuff that'll help me write better posts on here (hopefully) in time for synoptic season! 

2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

At least 6z kind of said.. kind of.. maybe cooler.. 

You're seeing a fight between the trough being modeled progressively (Euro) and being held back (GFS). Here's Friday at 2pm on the GFS

That trough then drops south and nearly induces a coastal low to form as it tilts negatively. The Euro is on a different planet, as it doesn't ever have that energy detach fully from the more northward low.

The Euro AI is sort of in-between, with the low detaching and swinging south but not as intense

Still have a long ways to go but we should hopefully see consensus emerge mid-week. If the Euro AI to GFS envelope is right then it'll be time to look at the close range models to see topographic effects and possible places that'll snow.