SnowenOutThere

Latest GFS run stunk pretty bad, worse than 12z for the mountains as it had a less amplified and less deep trough. 

18 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

That depiction might work for the mountains (prob not for Cville) if that's the way things went but pretty sure the only way we'd see flakes in the metros where most of us are is if the EURO/UKIE/CMC/ICON have a clue and we just happen to be the lucky spot

It'll be interesting to see where the short term models bring this if it doesn't completely fall apart before then. Either way my Monday classes are looking real skippable if WV is getting 2-3 inches OTG and daytime snowfall. 

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

The secondary development is fairly clear on the 12z EPS... not paying for individual members yet but the mean through the area is a T of snow at this point. 

Latest GFS does something interesting with the primary costal low as well and honestly gets close to snow from a completely different route 

1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Can someone post snow maps for the 6z Euro run? Seems like even UVA might get a dusting from it?

Fine, I'll do it myself 

Also if I did decide to pay for a weather site which one is the consensus pick?

Can someone post snow maps for the 6z Euro run? Seems like even UVA might get a dusting from it?

3 hours ago, mappy said:

Not that I know of 

To be entirely honest I’m not sure save him fully torching (pun intended) the banner thread what it would be worth banning him over when we have let people stay who add way less value while they bring up climate skepticism whenever they can 

38 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Love the ICON bringing snow showers to coastal South Carolina before us

Don’t worry if last years trends hold true it’ll be congrats Bahamas so theyll lose too 

Anyways, atmosphere and weather test completed and I think it went pretty well!

10 hours ago, mappy said:

At some point you just have to flush the turd 

Crazy to say this about one of our best posters in regards to their meteorological posts

On a less pessimistic note than the past couple posts the GFS shows an amazing early season upslope/cold core lapse rate thingy happening on Monday! Gets parts of WV to one foot

I have my third atmosphere and weather test tomorrow and its all on thermodynamics, saturation vapor pressure, lapse rates, and scew-Ts (I am cooked). So would any met or anyone else who knows what theyre doing check my work on this? @CAPE @psuhoffman @WxUSAF @MN Transplant @high risk 

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Once again, @WxUSAF is absolutely correct to be concerned about "wasting patterns", but it's somewhat comforting to see things slowly trending cooler as we near our first shot of late autumn weather. Not only more expansive cold, but better negative anamolies.

EDIT: Euro also showing this too!

 

 

European even has not one but two chances for flurries next week! Obviously a long ways away and whatnot but still cool to see.

Blue pixels keep showing up around the 10th. Hoping to get some upslope snow

Happy Halloween! I have a cloud scavenger hunt for my Atmosphere and Weather course (which is a nice break from the physics of lapse rates, vapor pressure, saturation, and actually learning what a scew-T log P chart means). Would love for some mets @Eskimo Joe @MN Transplant@high risk@WxUSAF to weigh in on when I could find the "rare" clouds (or what soundings to look for on my own). Thanks! 

Trying to figure out if Shenandoah would have the valley of cloud effect if I went out in 3 hours to the top. Generally it looks like the dew points drop too much though. If anyone wants to weigh in that would be nice.

10 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

then of course March was unreal. We just missed 2 storms before the March 20 one hit.  Then we missed another legit window in early April. Yea I know April but one wave gave southern PA 8” (I had about 2 here) and it’s not like those were areas that have a significantly better April snow climo the wave just went 50 miles north. Then the next wave got suppressed!  We actually would have snowed had it now been squashed!   

 

Man I remember that April storm. I was watching weather underground and saw the extended snow totals with us in the 2ft pink zone. What actually happened to cause it to miss? 

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

HRRR is preferred

What mechanism causes the NAM to mess it up? I’m learning more about actual meteorology in college rn so Im interested to what physics part is messes up

27 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

It is overly sensitive to terrain.

So would the HRRR be preferable over it or is it still worth blending. 

50 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z models:  rain incoming....no rug pull with this one.

Genuinely curious as it always seems like the NAM 3k has the most orthographic precip out of all models always (including the other high res ones). Is it actually more accurate or is it overdoing it?

Glad to see accuweathers forecast was once again completely accurate!

Got my hands on my Great Grandfathers old film camera from 1979. Here's a picture from the top of Shenandoah! 

14 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

What is interesting however is that we’ve had some of the coldest winters on record in the last 25 years. It’s almost as if winters are becoming more severe and more cold.

So when they say you're a science teacher does that include knowing what an average is? Or actually does it include being able to look at literally any scientific papers from the last half century on the topic? 

33 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I remember we went decades without a category 5. Now it's a regular occurrence. Incredible.

29 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

AGW

Wonder if this season's whole quality over quantity thing is a preview of our future seasons thanks to climate hell. I think it fits the general predictions of a little less activity but far more intense. 

51 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

I had an argument with several people about this over the weekend. Every single person said last winter was warm.   For some reason LLMs seem to be bias on this also saying that 84-85 was much colder and that last year was only "Mildly Cold".

I thought last year was one of the coldest on record.  Based on NOAA data it was right up there with 84-85:

 

This is actual rage bait I’m impressed.