SnowenOutThere

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

We want it to trend more stream interaction. We may not see results at the sfc immediately

Are you saying that this was a step in a positive direction in that regard?

Lost power in Reston 

3k NAM is onboard too

This snippet from Capital Weather Gang is honestly sorta funny

• American: 3 to 5 inches (forecast 24 hours ago: 10 to 12 inches).
• European: 2 to 4 inches (24 hours ago: 9 to 11 inches).
• German: Coating to 2 inches (24 hours ago: 12 to 16 inches).
• UKMet: Coating to 2 inches (24 hours ago: 10 to 12 inches).
• Canadian: Coating to 1 inch (24 hours ago: 4 to 6 inches).

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Honestly they both look like we should be worried about a too far NW track not a coastal scraper. I’ve honestly never need so “confused” by model output. I rarely ever see something I’ve never seen before but this is if.
 

A closed h5 low near Chicago and a h7 pass through PA = big snow to our southeast?  Not in any book I’ve ever read. 

When do you think the models may start to reflect that (if they do at all)? Additionally, does the tilt of the upper level trough not matter in this case?

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Also if everyone just on the PA side of the line up here goes up to the other forum myself and many of the northern MD contingent might follow because our climo is probably more similar to there and if we no longer have anyone in here to commiserate with or have our local meso discussions in a storm then it might make more sense to be with them.  I’d probably end up splitting my time more.  Right now the PA forum is more central PA and the right along the PA line people are in here with us. 

I know we're all focused on this threat window (for good reason), but has the pattern collapsed afterwards or do we have any more chances?

Just now, ravensrule said:

Patience, it will come. 

Oh, I'm not upset with this outcome because 7 inches is a lot (insert joke here) but its just a little frustrating to constantly see the phase become weaker. 

We just can't find a positive trend with the H5 interaction out west to save our lives for the past 4 cycles

I hate it here 

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

now that we might be moving on from this storm - did the rest of the window collapse? I thought this was just chance #1?

We got this for the 26th...

-

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’m tilting, crashing out, whatever the hot expression is. 

Crashing out, and I think I'll join you in that. 

I mean this is just embarrassing

0z

12z

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Okay fine I’ll lower my expectations to 1”

How about snow in the air?

25 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Just made a bet with my sister that if the Ukmet caves and shows a storm under 10 inches she has to buy me a stuffed plushie and vise versa so I’m switching teams now. 

Well this makes it sting a little less...

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Well 00z UKIE will be a hit of some kind tbh looking at 96 and 120

6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Just made a bet with my sister that if the Ukmet caves and shows a storm under 10 inches she has to buy me a stuffed plushie and vise versa so I’m switching teams now. 

I have mixed feelings about this now

Just made a bet with my sister that if the Ukmet caves and shows a storm under 10 inches she has to buy me a stuffed plushie and vise versa so I’m switching teams now. 

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

I’m now convinced snowfall means on ensembles are useless. 

To be fair to the modeling the only ens that came on board was the euros

7 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Well, that went in complete reverse. TPV interaction went from partial to…”what interaction?” on the CMC. GFS trending backwards even more so for the S/S wave and interaction with the TPV is pretty awful. Now THAT is concerning. I’m not giving up hope, but man oh man, that is a step in the wrong direction to start the 00z suite. We’ll see what the UK and EC bring to the table because if they hold serve, then it’ll be a medium range model war. Damn 

When will the shortwaves be over the conus and better sampled? 

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

again, not joking, CMC is 0" 

Well that would cause me to actually be pissed because then I have to go to school

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Being entirely honest if 2-4 is the floor I’m okay with that

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

what's the opposite of folks? it's really bad

Probably another F word

Cannot believe I’m at regionals finals for swim tonight and just read 5 pages of Icon discussion

15 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

If we lowered our expectations a bit, maybe we won’t have a massive meltdown if the next runs don’t trend our way. All i’m saying is, be prepared. 

Frankly don’t see the issue as long as I get between 4-8. Then again I’ve never really experienced a mecs so don’t know what I’m missing

This being my first time tracking a major snowstorm on this forum but is everyone always this crazy? I mean even if this ends up being 4-8 that is an incredibly solid storm imo, ig I just don’t understand the negativity.

Seems like a bit of consolidation from all the guidance to a more similar solution today. Just need to hold through tomorrow now