Cool, went right over my house, at school right now so won't know what happened for a bit. Just saw the image, I looked at radarscope but it only lasted a frame so was hard to make out but it makes sense the NWS knows just a bit more than me.
I'm technically a CIT or coach in training, so I still am swimming on the team but I also get to coach an age group (9-10s) along with helping the coaches at meets.
Have you ever seen a model be as consistent as the gfs showing a storm in the gulf? It’s had one there since 330 hours out and has stayed locked in. It’s crazy.
Gfs keeps showing a tropical low in the gulf every run. No other model has it at all though. Still amazing to see the GFS’s consistency even this far out.
We were close, parts of the region even had a decent year. The Enso was not really the problem as @psuhoffman pointed out, the pacific actually helped us for once we just could not get -NAO. If we had some Atlantic side help then we would most likely be singing the praises of last winter.