SnowenOutThere
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Everything posted by SnowenOutThere
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Oh I agree its a 90% plus likelihood but I think a pathway exists when we have such complex interactions for the models to shift some more. Once again I think all synoptic stuff is settled by tomorrow 12z (which is why I'll make my final analysis then)
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Yeah, it won with this storm. It has consistently been the most amped and saw the second NS phase before any other model did. My post way back on Monday analyzing this storm put the CMC in its separate category where I bemoaned how if it pulled of this phase we'd mix. Well, it was right.
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Hypothetically we still could avoid it. Would require dramatic shifts by 12z tomorrow (and even worse the GFS to be mostly right) but theres enough weirdness in the NS where I wouldn't write it off completely.
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CMC so far looking more eastward with its phasing of the NS and SW. Otherwise similar.
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For those wondering how the GFS did it. The GFS had better confluence, a low that ejected a bit further south and resisted the phase, a less powerful NS, and a more eastern NS. If the Euro shows any one of these things we should hopefully get a further south solution.
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For now assume all my posts are made with me being at UVA
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Storm exiting
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QDF bomb
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Snow total though hour 93 (which is when I mix)
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Its quite the front end thump though the second part of the storm is going to mix hard imo
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If I had to bet I'd say the GFS will be a mix between its 18z run and the Euro's depiction
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Gotta love it just spawning in the second NS vort.
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Listen man I'd hope its south considering this is its 18z run that ends with the sleet line through NOVA
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RGEM for whoever cares looks to probably shift everything a bit East out west so far. While I'm looking at worthless things the FV3 looks more suppressed than everything else
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I don't think so? That said if it shows a better run yes it absolutely does don't worry about it.
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Super early on but it has a similar change to the NAM's 18z to 0z with the SW being the ever bit more held back and the NS stuff in the Pac NW being at a slightly less advantageous angle for a phase.
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Oh I fully agree its better, I'm just saying its not quite gonna save us. One or two more bumps that direction though and its game on even for me.
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Yeah man, you guys are probably cooked when it comes to getting an all snow event. I guess a legendary ice storm is a consolation prize . Though I'm at UVA so I'm next to fall.
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Unfortunately damage is probably done when it comes to mixing. I mean we have a closed 700mb low over Oklahoma! Though it is better than its 18z run no matter what.
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Yep. Just wish we could get the less amped STJ wave without losing a bit of confluence which so far all runs have had happen at the same time. Either way Nam would be a sleet bomb and not a freezing rain bomb (for VA) which is good.
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Biggest difference is that it still has two closed isobars on the vort map compared to 18z being a completely open wave
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True, but I wonder if having the SW come east quicker just raises the ability for it to phase while if it stays west long enough the NS will interfere destructively. Honestly I have no idea anymore.
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Wonder if we actually want the phase further west or further east. I think further east is better as it gives it less time to pump the ridge in front? Conversely, a further west phase may leave more energy behind so who knows.
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Theres some irony there too. Once again, the really huge changes from our past runs (over a day ago) is the second NS lobe that pretty much materialized at 0z yesterday.
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So the heres a run of the euro from way back when it had the snow max in southern virginia... Here is the 0z NAM Clearly they are not the same setup. Need to see how that NS entering the Pac NW interacts with it. Additionally, the huge jumps north are from a different NS lobe that only enters our viewing angle at hour 60.
