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SnowenOutThere

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Everything posted by SnowenOutThere

  1. SnowenOutThere
    I actually don’t hate the GFS so far
  2. SnowenOutThere
    Eh it’s get Shenandoah nice and good
  3. SnowenOutThere
    Anyways, I’m hopefully checking out for tonight. Everyone else I hope you can bring us home.
  4. SnowenOutThere
    Ehhhh NAM is blurring those lines. Frankly, we need some form of coastal in order to maximize our IVT. Even if the best dynamics and lift is provided by the IVT it needs to coastal moisture fetch to actually precipitate.
  5. SnowenOutThere
    It actually was encouraging to me as it’s H5 setup is different than the GFS and shows another way to score
  6. SnowenOutThere
    NAM is better for the coastal fans but worse for the people who want to bet on the H5 pass to get snow
  7. SnowenOutThere
    For the record we've now blown by the previous most daily posts count for all previous threads this winter.
  8. SnowenOutThere
    Here is their base snowfall map btw Any met want to weigh in on what the hell is going on with the Shenandoah's? I know that their elevation and upslope will help them but is this just the NWS graphic overdoing it or human made?
  9. SnowenOutThere
    I love the sentiment but I think this storm should be a special case. I mean IF this continues to trend well it'll be the first storm in 10 years that trends well inside day 5 and of all possible storms to do so it's some weird coastal miller B during February with a bad airmass. This is the people's storm
  10. SnowenOutThere
    The view after the 18z Euro
  11. SnowenOutThere
    Yep. I personally just focused on the NS and SW interaction as that's where my pay grade is (and without that going right we don't have a storm) but you're right. It was a major concession on pretty much every feature.
  12. SnowenOutThere
    Whos ready for the biggest long range NAM hallucination run of the winter!
  13. SnowenOutThere
    What the fuck. I was doing homework the last hour and played the 18z euro and my jaw dropped. It did the thing where it elongates the NS like the GFS. In my opinion it made an absolutely massive shift at the H5. It just failed to really capture the SW wave and get it as far west. While I think that is still a pie in the sky dream it just went from impossible to "extremely improbable".
  14. SnowenOutThere
    Hey it can always be a teaching tool of the perfect H5 setup!
  15. SnowenOutThere
  16. SnowenOutThere
    I'm not smart enough to identify the causes of the H5 differences I've pointed out but I imagine its some initial dance of our NS around the one centered further east in Canada.
  17. SnowenOutThere
    Surface low is 2mb higher and shifted maybe 20ish miles eastward. Honestly, I expected a large cave but here we are.
  18. SnowenOutThere
    Coastal redeveloping at hour 75.
  19. SnowenOutThere
  20. SnowenOutThere
    Out to hour 57 and if I had to hazard a guess it may be slightly shifted north east with where the heaviest snow fall but will be the same general idea.
  21. SnowenOutThere
    It'll be a hold for all practical H5 purposes in overcoming the first hurdle of the interaction of the NS and SW. TBD if everything else also holds or shifts around.
  22. SnowenOutThere
    It should still be good - or at least close to good.
  23. SnowenOutThere
    Through hour 27 and it hasn't completely caved to the Euro out west, though arguably may be a bit less stretched out (eg worse)
  24. SnowenOutThere
    I'll offer my input from what I outlined a few pages ago with the NS H5 lobe. Just know saying "its worse" or "it seems the same" may not directly translate to the surface outcome as all of this is very delicate. Even if the coastal fails the IVT could still snow on us.
  25. SnowenOutThere
    Time to assemble the crew.
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