SnowenOutThere

Does anyone know how to successfully embed links to gifs or images into posts?

So, over the past couple days I've been quite the downer on this storm having a possibility of bringing widespread snow to the area. In the past I mainly felt this way as we were relying on a convoluted mess of shortwave interactions. However, in the past 12 hours modeling has moved to put us on a far easier path to victory as they reemphasize shortwave 1 (previously we were using shortwave 3 even days ago) as the dominant way to get precipitation into our area. Of course, it could shift the other way but this is exactly the trend we want to see. Lets take a look at the difference between the past GFS runs that leave us high and dry and the Euro/NAM camp that actually has a real storm. This GFS run shows our first shortwave that gets compressed by a combination of factors. We have energy flooding the west (feature 3) and another NS shortwave which really is the main issue (feature 4 note the string of vorticity connecting to feature 3). Feature 2 is just sorta helping with moisture transport and imo isn't overly important. So, we run this forward in time and we see this: Feature 1 is now basically nonexistent as it is a ribbon of vorticity from Texas to Virginia. So, the real push northward of precip is instead by feature 2 and 3/4 interacting with each other which frankly was never going to workout unless we got a minor miracle (and the thermals would be bad from the extended return flow anyways and was shown by the GFS having rain where there was any precip). It was from this perspective that I believed there was no way we could get a storm into the Mid-Atl Lets compare to the Euro/NAM: We already have shortwave 1 way more clearly defined and less strung out. This is what actually causes a storm in this run not shortwave whatever the hell the GFS does! Notice how much simpler this is! its just a shortwave out west moving east into cold air! We can legitimately do that! Of course, features 3 and 4 are still there but they are held back and give us a little more breathing room. By Friday morning itself the difference is even more clear as there is still a consolidated mass of vorticity and that creates our storm. What we need to look for is for features 3/4 to slow down or dig south at a sharper axis to encourage the first shortwave to consolidate. For instance see the difference between 6z having the energy out northwest of our storm being flat across Chicago and the 12z having it spike north south west of Chicago area and encourage development downstream instead of suppressing it. I think that piece of energy is the main thing we have to watch (the Nam 3k has an amazing depiction of how a flatter and faster NS energy will suppress the flow but sadly I don't have the upload space but please go and make one yourself), if it manages to hold back or dig further south while maintaining a good axis I think we're in the game to get a nice snow day Friday. TDLR: I am no longer Debbie downing Friday. We got a legit shot if the Euro/Nam is right in the handling of shortwave 1 as the primary piece of energy.

Making the thread as we speak

I can start it

Though seriously, we are in a far better spot than we were for Friday last night. We are now actually just tracking shortwave one and not shortwave 3 which I identified a couple days ago as being a way less complicated setup.

Man the progression is so interesting modeling wise to how we score I want to type it up but I have chemistry homework I gotta do before my 2pm Env. Sci. class

Also holy shit weatherbell is so nice

Not bad at all

12z 6z for comparison

From the 500 vort it looks to be better than 6z but not as sharp as 0z

I think the base Euro should be a bit norther

Since I'm procrastinating studying I'll have an updated analysis on this Friday out soon. Interestingly, it looks like the main way the NAM scores is through shortwave one instead of shortwave three as it was shown a day ago.

Charlottesville is locked in with this track

Damn 100mb low I didn't know day after tomorrow was a work of nonfiction! That said this is a great look imo for within a week!

I mean the timing is just extremely unfortunate for schools so they made the right call. Anyways can't wait for my 15 minute walk to my 8am class tomorrow!

Back edging a storm with its precip shield 100s of miles to our West is PEAK AMWX content thank you.

What was it like back then?

Technically I will be getting a BS in env. sci. with a concentration in atmospheric studies as UVA doesn't offer a strict meteorology major so I'm not quite sure if it counts. Though a bonus is that I'm not required to know the actual math behind the forecasts so no extremely high level math or physics for me!

Yep! Graduation out of the Oakton area last year and honestly you can't beat UVA for the in-state price. Though, luckily I have both Amtrak and a car for my traveling needs if Nova can finally reel in the big one someday. I'm also an env sci major and am taking their Atmosphere and Weather class (which usurpingly I've quite enjoyed and will be taking Synoptic meteorology in the 2027 when it is offered) which has helped me construct the far longer (and hopefully useful) posts I've been able to make in the long range threads. Its always been awesome having Mets like you post the dynamics behind storms so as I try to learn actual meteorology please let me know if I'm on the right track with my analyses.

Well, it was better as in it has precip reach into central VA but it is all rain so its a wash (literally). Though the next wave for the 8th does look much improved and more like the Euro.

Clouds are on the Southwestern horizon in Cville so I doubt I get much radiational cooling. That said, this was always going to be an ice and not snow "threat" for me.

Too early to tell but I think the GFS might be a little bit closer (still probably nothing) for Friday as it has the NS detach a little more through out 96

Adding onto my post from last night but man this window is just a mess of energy out west. The first image taken at hour 60 on the latest Euro seemingly shows a simple setup as we have a nice bowling ball of energy out west and suppressed heights for it to follow east. Great! What could go wrong? Ironically enough, the storm we are tracking isn't even this initial vorticity out west! As out of this seemingly simple setup we have two things that completely ruin this initial ball of vorticity's chances. 1. The press of vortex over southern central Canada prevents any real chance for it to meaningly amplify. 2. The weird lump of low pressure off the Mexican coast which stretches it out the other way. Additionally looking up to the 200mb wind the whole western US is in the exit region of the jet from the western US which just further suppresses cyclogenesis So now what? Well by 24 hours later the energy out west has become completely shredded as it attempts to move east. Unfortunately, this isn't exactly conducive to a storm forming as we have the energy basically being squashed and pulled apart so piece one of energy fails completely at producing any storm. However, we now have shortwave 3 entering the picture diving into the high plains which interacts with the remaining mess of vorticity to spin up some actual precipitation. So by 24 hours later we arrive at this. As we can shortwave one really just died out completely, but its leftover energy out west combined with shortwave 3 to create an extremely positively tilted axis (thanks to our friend shortwave 2). However, we manage to snag some precipitation thanks to the now favorable jet position over the southeastern US. Though the reason why it's ice is rooted in the initial problem; that being we have two different shortwaves! By hour 87 we are already under return flow at the low levels (through 850mb) by the first shortwave and we still have another day+ till precipitation even becomes a possibility! Unfortunately, I don't think this setup really works out for us in its current form. What we can mainly hope for is a better oriented shortwave 3. Additionally, maybe a better positioned (further east?) shortwave 2 could transfer more energy into the system? Luckily, with such a complicated forecast synoptically it is quite possible this solution is far from the actual one which does give me a bit of hope. Either way I can't really say I'm too optimistic on this one. TDLR: I don't think its going to snow Friday-Saturday outside maybe an extremely light event, and even then we will probably have thermal problems. However, the forecast is so uncertain with 3 pieces of energy that it can't quite be completely dead as interactions out West could change.

Sounding from Cville is juiced with saturation past 400mb and well through the DGZ. Also has strong frontogenesis through the 850-700mb layer before LFC would take over above the inversion. Would be a fun evening!