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SnowenOutThere

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Everything posted by SnowenOutThere

  1. SnowenOutThere
    I suppose I'm confused why it isn't a flash flood warning. A flood warning to me implies that the ground is saturated and a soaking rain/training storms will push already heighted rivers over the edge. Flash floods were more so thunderstorms overwhelming the ability of runoff to keep up. Even then, the CAMs seem somewhat unimpressive (or at least the NAM & HRRR)? I don't disagree that flooding could happen, I took a good look at the mesoscale analysis page and I understand we got the precipitable water content, good moisture transport, and a stalled boundary with pressure falling but a flood watch catches me off guard. I suppose we'll have to see if anything kicks off soon, though I'm not sure what would make something occur along the boundary in say an hour vs nothing happening all day.
  2. SnowenOutThere
    Genuinely questioned if the flood watch was a misinput. Can someone smarter explain why we have one till 10pm? @vortex95 @Eskimo Joe
  3. SnowenOutThere
  4. SnowenOutThere
    Went into DC on a rainy day adventure to see the tidal basin. DC really does the imperial city vibes well in the rain.
  5. SnowenOutThere
    I chose to take a rain swim, then head into DC for my activities. Got to see the reflection pool in person… lots of national guard people.
  6. SnowenOutThere
    At least to myself the velocity scans look rather unimpressive.
  7. SnowenOutThere
    No visible rotation from my vantage point. Massive downdraft/microburst visible though.
  8. SnowenOutThere
    Looks like the hooks reformed over GMU. Saw two bolts from the blue hit right over there
  9. SnowenOutThere
    It’s combined with the cell that popped up over 66 (I was driving west to get the culpeper cell) and it was nasty. Some of the heaviest rainfall you can get. The gust front is hitting me from the cell complex. I’m at the Herndon metro garage if anyone is interested in where my reports are from. They have a 6 story roof.
  10. SnowenOutThere
    Going for my Herndon metro intercept point
  11. SnowenOutThere
    DCA radar shows it well
  12. SnowenOutThere
    Cell south of dc has a weak mesocyclone
  13. SnowenOutThere
    Debating if I want to drive out on a local chase. Would set up east of Culpepper.
  14. SnowenOutThere
    I’m sorta feeling today. At the bare minimum we’re over 1000 SCAPE right now so I think we will at least get some storms this evening.
  15. SnowenOutThere
    Shear looks better than forecasted last night. Surface winds are nearly due south instead of the more westerly direction shown by the models.
  16. SnowenOutThere
    3k NAM looked better too. Though severe wise the hodographs look less impressive than this morning. Generally the surface winds are more westerly instead of southern on the latest runs so you don’t get the same amount of directional shear
  17. SnowenOutThere
    It mixes tomorrow into the upper 50s for dewpoints, NAM stays in the mid to upper 60s.
  18. SnowenOutThere
    Its the RRFS but man those are some nasty updraft helicity tracks. Most I've seen for this area on any model.
  19. SnowenOutThere
    Beautiful sunset! NAM sounding expertly shows the distribution of the mid/high level clouds needed to make this sunset work
  20. SnowenOutThere
    Hyped to coach a rain practice today, I always loved them when I swam outside.
  21. SnowenOutThere
    Went on a morning hike of Harper’s Ferry MD side. Beautiful, got there at 6:30am and avoided the crowds.
  22. SnowenOutThere
    Hell of a Tornado outbreak looks to be occurring in PA. 7 active warnings right now
  23. SnowenOutThere
    Stormy, sometimes you really need to realize you’re not the expert in the room. The SPC/drought monitor people/WPC all are smarter than you in their subject matter. So much ignorance of people about how much skill it takes to be an expert in a field. It’s a plague onto our society. From vaccine “skeptics” who believe they know better, to election deniers “who know the truth, to you sitting here spouting the same rhetoric. Listen more, post less.
  24. SnowenOutThere
    Thanks for responding/correcting me. I suppose my main take was based on assuming the storm initiation method would be the same. To my knowledge Friday and Thursday had storms due to the Lee trough and intense heating generating cape and basically hitting convective temp around 3pm. I didn’t realize today was more synoptic based for storm development. I suppose I haven’t had practice with these yet. Though, I never thought that if storms popped they wouldn’t be nasty with the increased, especially considering WxUSF mentioning we are now 2000+ CAPE.
  25. SnowenOutThere
    You got a link to that? Preferably the height temp dep point sheet. I still have some full page skew-T sheets I took from my lab at UVA and would love to do a hand written analysis
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