SnowenOutThere

Yeah man, you guys are probably cooked when it comes to getting an all snow event. I guess a legendary ice storm is a consolation prize . Though I'm at UVA so I'm next to fall.

Unfortunately damage is probably done when it comes to mixing. I mean we have a closed 700mb low over Oklahoma! Though it is better than its 18z run no matter what.

Yep. Just wish we could get the less amped STJ wave without losing a bit of confluence which so far all runs have had happen at the same time. Either way Nam would be a sleet bomb and not a freezing rain bomb (for VA) which is good.

Biggest difference is that it still has two closed isobars on the vort map compared to 18z being a completely open wave

True, but I wonder if having the SW come east quicker just raises the ability for it to phase while if it stays west long enough the NS will interfere destructively. Honestly I have no idea anymore.

Wonder if we actually want the phase further west or further east. I think further east is better as it gives it less time to pump the ridge in front? Conversely, a further west phase may leave more energy behind so who knows.

Theres some irony there too. Once again, the really huge changes from our past runs (over a day ago) is the second NS lobe that pretty much materialized at 0z yesterday.

So the heres a run of the euro from way back when it had the snow max in southern virginia... Here is the 0z NAM Clearly they are not the same setup. Need to see how that NS entering the Pac NW interacts with it. Additionally, the huge jumps north are from a different NS lobe that only enters our viewing angle at hour 60.

Same, issue is if the NS hangs north our confluence hangs north too. I think in general we want a deamped SW and a further east/weaker 2nd NS lobe (which enters the picture around hour 60).

That's about what I gathered. Though I don't know if it has the new data. I guess we'll need to wait for the real 0z runs for that.

Nams running and their initial placement of the SW is slightly different then 18z had it. 0z on top

Banter thread buddy

What about (apologies for asking) the NAM, CMC, Ukmet, icon?

Saw that post and realized our power is fucked.

I need a Publix nearby their chocolate milk is top tier. I went to a swim meet in Florida during junior year and drank so much of it

Will forgo the analysis post for today, frankly these recent runs have got me rather confused and we got the legendary data ingestion for 0z Will probably aim for 12z runs tomorrow as when I make it.

Any idea why all these H5 changes aren’t really translating to the surface?

The warm layers in this case aren't really hidden at all. I mean look at this wind map lmao If we have 70-80+ kt winds from the gulf we're going to have mixing no matter how much cold air you dump into the CAD.

This is what I'm confused about. The 18z Euro from my view of its H5 vort and height should've been an improvement or more southeast yet it went further northwest (not for DC in particular but I went from a foot to six inches and from .3 of ice to .6 and an inch or two of sleet). I'm honestly not sure what happened to cause the warm air intrusion further south. Comparing the 18z Euro to 12z as Terpeast noted we see a good amount less phasing When looking at the vort maps it becomes even stranger to me that things went the wrong way at the surface as the NS appears almost close to crushing the SW, especially if it was displaced any further east. Meanwhile 12z Euro has a whole ass triple phaser The only negative I can denote is slightly less confluence on the 18z? Maybe? Either way it just shocks me the changes out west had no impact on the surface. Maybe if we got another run that had these exact changes we would see more meaningful consequences?

One of the highlights of my discussion today will be the increased NS we’ve seen in the past 24 hours

Night and day difference between GFS and Euro. The H5 map really shows all you need to see to why the GFS is an area wide all snow event.

Just doesn’t have that second NS lobe like the other models do. Gives me some hope that even if they meet in the middle we won’t see a super amped solution.

I think the 18z GFS will have even less NS interaction with our SW (aka more "suppressed")

I was in a class whats up. I will also be in another class for the next 50 minutes but then the synoptic analysis three will be worked on.