SnowenOutThere

Congrats and good luck! My sister was born during the 2002-2003 winter (or the "one where it snowed a lot" as they call it) and my parents have similar stories. I'll try to be the intern filling in for your absence posting wise!

Wonder if that mini supercell alley is a direct result of the gap in the mountains I-64 takes impacting the flow. As for pictures I already have my d850 charging and ready to go. I think I plan to get the class Rotunda Pic, Dell pictures, and various Garden pictures. If you have any other pretty snow picture spots on Grounds please let me know!

Do you know any resources I could use to see and possibly anticipate how much down sloping to expect (besides annoying my resident professor on microclimates which I plan to do)?

What would you expect for Charlottesville? I'm thinking that at least an inch is a safe bet with a max of 3 (1.5-2 is my target). Only worry is down sloping or a further slip south (though with the H5 that would be quite a change to skunk me) but generally I think I'm pretty locked in for a pretty Friday morning on Grounds.

One last post before I call it a night. Something that I thought was a fun demonstration of how moistening the atmosphere truly works was this snapshot of the HRRR at 2am Friday. I really love how you can see the actual snowfall hitting the ground earliest along the spine of Shenandoah because the couple 1000 feet elevation they have compared to the surrounding areas means that there is less dry air between the clouds and the ground. It's fun to then see this reflected by it showing snow hitting the ground instead of sublimating. Dewpoint depression shows how the higher up you go the more moisture is making it to the surface as the lower values are found almost identically to an elevation map. None of this actually has a sensible impact on our weather or forecasts (though it does explain that the Shenandoah maximum in this storm is less the result of orthographic lift but instead this dry air quirk) but instead just a fun exercise to show how moistening the column works from the top down elevation wise. I will be sure to this run to show my mountain meteorology/climate near the ground professor as I feel that they'd appreciate it.

FWIW the RAP is pretty juiced

The one thing that annoys me about the HRRR is how the best forcing arrives with the precip (which makes sense I suppose). However, according to the soundings we have an entrenched layer of dry air (someone pointed this out earlier) which would sublimate before it could be saturated. HRRR shows this taking a couple hours which would be painful (though another actually smart met will need to chime in on how much that matters in relation to its molded snowfall output or if its factored into it). The good news to my eyes is once the column does saturate its game on with a saturated DGZ and good lift aligned with it! I know @psuhoffman mentioned that strong winds in the DGZ can break apart crystals but from my (admittedly chatgpt) understanding this soundings seems fine in that regard.

To illustrate the 0z run has the higher heights in front (notice how there is less confluence in Maine compared to 18z) which helps the storm amplify. Secondly, the shortwave itself is a bit stronger and less stretched out as the NS "kicker" is further south which almost seems to help spike development in our shortwave (while having the benefit of kicking it east slower) 0z 18z

H5 looks better too with a stronger shortwave out West and less confluence allowing that push northward with the precip. Don't know if it'll actually translate to a huge change but encouraging regardless

I'm taking calc 2 next semester so I may be pinging you quite often for help (though seriously if you tutor people I'd be interested depending on how my first exam goes) Physics will be next year for me and I cannot say I'm looking forward to it.

Lowk aced that test now all that’s left to do is reel in this storm

Thank you! Honestly, it’s just dense concepts but once you understand them they connect pretty well to being applied. Unfortunately meteorology isnt the only class im in so imma need some prayers while i take my chem test in the next hour (which all of my posts over the past 3 days have been a form of procrastination for)

Hey we all make mistakes. Besides, you're a way better poster than I was in my early years of high school (as some on this forum no doubt remember).

I would encourage everyone to get into this side of reading storms as its way less frustrating than just tracking seemingly random movements on the surface as you can tell what a setups potential is more concretely.

I’m coming at this from the perspective of this setup was never really supposed to snow and it was only yesterday it even became a possibility due to out west trending better and emphasize shortwave 1, In a lot of ways it’s more practice than anything. Though I can’t lie and say my mood isn’t boosted by being 100 miles south of most posters.

Hopefully the GFS run stops the downers from taking over the thread

Hey I lived in Nova so I gotta cover the VA public schools as that’s where nearly every single one of them went. If you have a map that includes MD I’ll happy use that instead thougu!

First stab at a snowfall map (made for my instagram but might as well post it here). Since it's made for public consumption I always hedge my bets a bit so its a bit more conservative than my true thinking.

Euro has more confluence over the Northeast so its worse than its 6z run. That said, its so close to being something better as a more relaxed flow is only off by 24 hours.

Yes, but unfortunately that is around .1 of actual qdf! The general synoptic pattern is locked in so now we just get to see how exactly it plays out.

We are splitting hairs here man. 12z 6z

I think the 12z Euro should be pretty similar to its 6z run

In fairness I wouldn't lose sleep over this 1-3 inch snowstorm missing to the south if that happens. Now, if we get a December 2018 then its worth it.

FWIW the 12z CMC seems to have more interaction with the low I was talking about earlier and its to the shortwaves seeming determent as its unable to turn more neutral to negative as both runs fail to ingest the vorticity but 12z gets more interaction without phasing. Maybe there's a minimum in potential between either no interaction outwest and relying on just the NS diving and the other potential of a relatively complete and clean phase (which would have a higher upside) 12z last 12z

I haven't looked at the upper level progression yet today so I was going off of yesterday (which may have had that low more important who knows). I was treating the situation as if we can get more energy together earlier we have a better shot at running the gamut of confluence to our North (I am also 100 miles south so I care a little less about the confluence). That said, I definitely see overall how changing the NS wave would help us out more concretely than anything else as it is the direct inhibitor to strengthening.