SnowenOutThere

Nah I don't got a dog in this fight. I'm in Cvill lmao

CMC shows the potential danger of instead having too strong of a low that is located too far west. Once again, its a thread the needle event so we just got to wait and see.

Then I don't want this thread to be clogged with people complaining IF the Miller B does its normal thing.

Listen, this storm is a loss for me. I know that and frankly I've had my fill of snow and ice when walking on grounds. I'm forecasting for NOVA for this storm.

Once again to illustrate this point look at the snowfall distribution 6z vs 12z. 6z on top 12 on bottom. Yes it still snows for most of the subforum. However, notice where the snowfall max is located. We went from a north south gradient to a more typical Millar B NE/SW gradient. This is fine; however, its the first indication that we could see this go the way of a normal Millar B. I do not endorse this run of the GFS but it is something to be wary of going forward. In my opinion we want a stronger and more southern initial low pressure and do not want to root for a weaker low even if it is more south as it will simply require more time to develop and be more likely to miss to our NE.

On its own this run is fine. However, if you step this another time that intense snow band will only go further north/east and possibly end up as the classic miller B late developer.

Eh I disagree that it is a good step. If we were to move one more tick this way we lose enough intensity to really get good CCB and dynamic cooling. I would prefer a stronger and more south storm than a weaker and more south storm.

GFS will probably be worse. Less intense vort/upper low over the plains

By rug pulls I mean the storm itself disappears. Personally, I am hesitant to think this will be a major snowstorm especially for where I'm at. If I was up in NOVA I'd be a bit more excited though still waiting.

Been studying for my test today in 30 minutes so haven't been paying too much attention to the models but this sums up my thinking. Besides the December and one January storm every other setup seemed more likely to fail than not. Honestly, I've checked out of tracking since Jan 25th because nothing ever showed likelihood even close to that! This is the first storm since then where everything checks out. The models are bouncing around but never too far from a snowstorm, the pattern itself checks out, and its unlikely that it completely rug pulls. Will be paying more attention throughout the rest of the week.

Its near the end of winter. I think starting that thread way out in December for next year might be better as it allows it to become established for all the main threats.

On topic to this storm but look to clinch between .8-.9 inches of rain. Going to see the streams quite happy with that and the remaining snowmelt. Hopefully will hike out Tuesday to some waterfalls!

Theres an old climate map/document from the 1970s discussing West Virginia's winter climate and it had several of its peaks reaching 160in+ snowfall amounts. I wonder how much that has changed in the meantime.

I remember the 2024 November elevation dependent storm as another example. I drove up to the Catoctins and the base of the mountain had white rain. After driving up to the trailhead you could see the areas further uphill had accumulations on trees/logs while even 100 ft below there was nothing. Hiking up the critical point was 1200ft where it went from barely anything to sticking to most surfaces coated. I could literally look uphill and see several inches more snow compared to downhill where it was barely a coating. Once past 1500ft it all turned into 5 inches of snow and howling winds. Crazy part is just 50-100 years ago you could move that elevation line down to around 500ft! That would've been a snowstorm for most of MD down to point of rocks! Instead, it was reserved for our few remaining mountaintops that had enough elevation to starve off the warmth.

I mean in a way you can think of every year as the snow line slowly moving upwards in elevation. You would now need an extra 1000ft or so to get the same snowfall averages of pre climate change.

This winter has seemed like a lot of it’s a week away threats. Ofc, none of them had high probabilities of hitting but the fact only one of them (and it was the only STJ wave so higher confidence further out) did anything is pretty unlucky.

According to the cameras it’s snowing up at snowshoe! Glad to get some verification of this thread

My final point on this is this equation. Feel free to ignore it, discard it, call it wrong or whatever else. Just think through what it might be saying IF its true (which for the record it is and is in a textbook from a hundred years ago!)

Yk it’s bait when we have people who’s never post in here normally saying shit. Not quite sure why we even tolerate them at all frankly

I mean PSU can answer this better than me (after all I was too young to remember a time before perfect rainstorm tracking) but what I assume is that before the significant warming events of the 2012 and 2016 ninos which some may argue set new climate baselines the ability for us to get those setups was easier. Though, I'm sure you were already losing some of those setups on the margins but no one quite cared as it still was snowing enough. Now its flipped where more often than not they fail... so it all seems sudden. Fortunately I never got to experience that pre climate hell baseline so I'll never know what we've lost. Though, even last winter that January storm we just missed a real snowstorm by a factor of a couple degrees. Additionally, you got knock on effects of thermal boundaries, storm track, jet stream, etc shifting around.

Beautiful day out getting to near 60 degrees and sunny. Last of the snow melting away with maybe 30% coverage. Honestly, I've loved the snow but man it made hiking and most of my activities impossible. Glad to see it go.

I think PSU would agree with my take on this but its never quite that easy. Its background presence has been increasing. Some setups might still be cold enough, some setups wont be. Over time our marginal setups will only become more likely to fall on the not cold enough side. So its not like some year will mark the end of our marginal setups forever, instead its a slow decline. Ofc to not make this political this phenomenon is unique to only snowstorms and has no broader causes, effects or solutions.

I assume by thermal boundary you mean more upper air 925-850mb level?

We are an atmospheric science board so why is it suddenly controversial to discus a whole field of it? Seriously it’s like saying we couldn’t discuss 500mb height maps or vort maps because they’re “political”. They both directly impact our storms and climate zones. It is what it is

Eh technically the h20 vapor feedback is less important than you’d think. When I was younger I thought the same thing but it turns out the lifetime of water vapor is so low it prevents this buildup. Ofc, it’s still significant to our warming but not doomsday feedback look. Methane and permafrost release is more concerning but we also have some negative feedback loops for now.