SnowenOutThere
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Everything posted by SnowenOutThere
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12z GFS with a different evolution for next weekend's timeframe out west. May actually favor us if the NS can dig father south.
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Damn even short pumped is fringed
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The Nam has been steady in advertising at least an hour of flakes at the tail end.
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Well, not sure how great the GEFS is considering it has me at 7 inches of snow by Friday
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change BOO, did I scare you?
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When is the last big event (or even moderate) one like shown at the end of its run? I personally can't remember a single one but my non fuzzy memories of winter start post 2016.
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Im more partial to its end up run setup
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It looked a bit like a follow up wave than a cold chasing air event on the 12z gfs. Euro had that idea too but way too far north with the secondary low
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GFS is so close to something better but the trough goes negative tilt a little too late. Regardless we still get some snow showers and it was an improvement from 6z
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GFS out to hour 130ish seems to have a weaker and slightly farther north south wave but not sure how the NS will interact with it
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The thread is here
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In all fairness I’m not quite sure this is even close to the same “winter storm” we were looking at previously. This is an entirely different wave compared to the old runs that showed something around the 8th
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Euro run reminded me of when PSU talked about storms having next to no frozen on their northwestern side except for a small 50-100 mile width.
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BWI: 17.2" DCA: 9.1" IAD: 16.4" RIC: 4.5" Tiebreaker (SBY): 11.1"
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Ends with a messy sleet/ice storm thanks to a well placed high in Canada to give cold air damming while the 850s get toasted.
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I think that is the only word to really describe its whole evolution. Has the southern energy finally eject but NS stuff keeps trying to phase or push it around?
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Latest GFS with yet another completely different evolution for the potential 8th storm. NS is completely absent while the southern energy looks mildly better than its 0z run
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GFS looks like it’ll come in looking more like it’s past 6z and 0z run than 12/18z. Better NS shortwave and less stuck southern disturbance
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Its funny in a sort of Sisyphusian "It will never snow again" ironic way.
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GFS just dished up the funniest possible outcome for the 12th window
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Good test subject on if we can make a sacrificial thread and then revive it with a second one this year
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Digital Snow Thread Winter 2024-2025
SnowenOutThere replied to SnowenOutThere's topic in Mid Atlantic
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GFS shows a nice hit right in the second window people have been mentioning.
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Does seem to be digging out west maybe a bit more
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It honestly was shocking but really hammered home what posters like PSU have said about how important surface level temps are in marginal storms. The parking lot was 33 degrees which just wasn’t cold enough compared to even 500ft higher where it had to be comfortably below freezing. Sad to think about what this may mean for our snowfall in future marginal cases but can see why PSU (and others, he just articulates it well) gets so irritated by the storms that could’ve been if it wasn’t 1-2 degrees too warm now.
