SnowenOutThere
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Everything posted by SnowenOutThere
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118 temps are iffy
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Ironically I'm slightly concerned this may be too far west with a low over central NC
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Neg tilt by hour 105
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H5 pass will definitely be far to our south which is what @Terpeast has been hammering home as our ticket.
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I mean the top is 0z and bottom is 18z. I find it hard to see this miss, just look at that lobe digging south.
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The height lines seemed backed a smidge further west with more vorticity in the main lobe angled west. Additionally, the ribbon of vorticity running out ahead of the lobe (paving its path) seems to be a bit more intense and catching the southern energy better. So far I am hopeful.
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Or hour 69
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Correct me if I’m wrong but doesn’t this storm have some level of southern stream involvement? Obviously it’s mainly a miller B type storm but looking at the setup I thought it was at least sorta phased with southern energy which helped get the storm to pull south. The 250mb wind also shows the southern wind maximum getting absorbed.
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Still snowing but between how the December storms shook out for me and how your storm is named maybe there's a bias in calling dibs on a storm.
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Whole different look up top for the window after the 16th. Seems to work out for us (or at least CAPE) but is a different shortwave interaction that leads to it occurring. Def won't know what happens with this one for a bit.
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So what I'm hearing is we start the thread now, watch the storm trend away from us, and then restart the thread at HRRR range and have the reverse bust of the century. On a serious note what is there to even look for on the map when its so chaotic. I feel like I can examine simple setup but no idea on how to even approach what factors cause a storm like this to amplify.
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Looks far more consolidated out west so far. Just need it to not hold energy back and we might be looking at another hit.
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What are your thoughts on when we might start seeing runs with actual importance (for lack of a better word) behind them? With this setup I personally am thinking itll be within cam range where we will actually get useful information on what may occur.
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Heres a pretty map
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I mean its hard to go completely wrong if you're managing to phase the NS and southern stream in mid January right off the east coast. Really think we just need to keep seeing the phasing happen.
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Tbh there is so much interaction going on upstairs that I think the only thing we can look for is the setup staying relatively the same (and other models moving towards GFS) and then seeing which way it might actually go within 48 hours of the event as everything is in motion.
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I def think this run will be "worse" (less deep trough and slightly more positive tilt) but grand scheme of things nothing major has changed. 18z 12z
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And higher heights upstream as well
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Don’t really know what you mean as that seems like a reasonable spread for a weekish out. Really just shows a good signal for a coastal
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I think that the larger issue is the southern Canadian squasher which is messing up the ability for the southern part to really intensify. Gonna need to watch that feature
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Hey if it wasn’t for those posters and all of their encouragement the other type wouldn’t exist at all
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Would get some insane upslope worth a trip out to WV
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Not gonna lie the past two days have been a nice reprise from our actually cold December and November. In a weird way my body feels like it’s late February because it’s been so long since December snow.
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Nah you don’t understand the goal of being young on a forum of 30+ year olds and wanting to prove then that you can learn. Hes gonna be goated trust me
