WXNewton
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Maybe today the trend will be for a 2nd batch of precip building in during the early morning hours on Saturday. With the frigid airmass to our north slowly sinking in this would possibly lead to a lot of light freezing drizzle/sleet that might be more extensive than the models are detecting.
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Lets hope! This could be the big dog, seems like all 3 global models now have the high pressure in a similar position and with moisture overrunning the CAD. In the past it seems like the euro latches on to these bigger storms first and now we are seeing some agreement on timing, temps and moisture.
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Freezing Rain
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Looks like 00Z RGEM has much better CAD setting up at hr 51. 00z RGEM and 00z NAM still pretty far apart.
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Yep just noticed that too, it's difficult to watch the models literally bounce around 10-14 degrees different in one or two runs. This run had a low pressure off the coast that wasn't on 18z.
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18z RGEM will be out soon
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Also one thing to note this is a wedge building in as moisture is arriving. Lately we have been wedged in waiting for the moisture and by the time it gets here the high is retreating.
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Yep big chances today and they all started with RGEM. Lets see what it does in a little bit which might lead the way again for another shift south tonight.
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The trend is alive and well...
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I think the key to the end of the week storm is all about timing, which in most ways that's the big puzzle piece to getting any winter storm in the south. Both the Euro and Canadian have the CAD building in stronger throughout the day on Friday and into Saturday. If the system would happen to slow down some and the cold air filter in a little quicker we might have a better chance.
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I bet it does, that's kind of been the theme today for that time period. Hi-res models ought to really bring that into perspective the next few runs.
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Let's be honest if Euro were to produce anything close to this run it would be absolutely devastating for CAD areas. A lot of us would be cheering for sleet.
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Here is the trend with precip and temps.
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Euro with big trend on Friday's system, not far off from RGEM.
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A couple more trends like this and we will have some icing issues if correct.
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Just posted a trend from Canadian, definitely looks to becoming more favorable in the CAD areas.
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Here is the 12z Canadian trend for the Friday time-frame. Eyes are open now!
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With all of this potential energy moving through over the next 2 weeks, I have a feeling that we could see a storm seemingly appear out of nowhere and trend our way with very limited lead time.
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Now that has a look to it that could potentially make a lot of folks happy as we move forward. I think the main thing to take away from this is that the models are showing the players on the field and the potential is coming into better focus of scoring with something. Maybe some good times ahead!
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I feel the same way, I think ice storms can be the most beautiful and destructive forces when it comes to weather. Part of the weather weenie in me loves to watch them unfold.
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Also like the deep snow pack to the north, I said yesterday that might really help us in the long run. I mean it's been a while since we've had a decent high pressure building in over deep snow pack. Last good CAD I remember over really good snowpack was back in Jan 22 2016, seems like Catawba County was in the low 20s most of the storm.
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Maybe short-range models will start to sniff out this dense air mass and pickup on the potential faster than the globals will.
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Yes, just now looked at that. ICON seemed to do really well with the weekend storm, maybe it's on to something. It actually dropped temps in the Catawba Valley area about 4-5 degrees from 6z.
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Yeah i think 1034 can get it done, especially if it would happen to drop on in to Western NY or Western PA around that time. I like the look of the reinforcing highs building into the Midwest as well. Only time will tell but I could definitely see a few more degrees as the models tend to struggle with this dense air mass and should correct more as we get into tomorrow and Wednesday. I really like the Sun-Tuesday timeframe, I believe we could see some major CAD sinking exceptionally far south.
