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coastal front

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Everything posted by coastal front

  1. coastal front
    Icon won’t do it but it is drastically improved
  2. coastal front
    I do like the 500mb trends a lot and that’s not done backing honest either. One things first sure is we are not at a final solution right now
  3. coastal front
    Did we ever get the wxnext full ensemble suit?
  4. coastal front
    Oh wowwww
  5. coastal front
    18z euro and eps was a huge improvement. Shows you how the smallest changes in tilt and timing have large differences in outcomes. Tilting a closed low 6 hours sooner while being 100+ hours out is not alot to ask. We love to see another day . .
  6. coastal front
    As long as the bleeding has stopped that gives us 100* hours to keep ticking better. At some point you reach an inflection point and it gets a lot better with smaller changes.
  7. coastal front
    CMC stills get close to a foot on the coast. We don’t want this to wrap up and occlude to far south so staying positive tilt a little longer could help those farther north. .
  8. coastal front
    EPS backed west a bit to with average precip amounts .
  9. coastal front
    Euro hits the coast good with a sharp cutoff at 95. Absolute bomb 970s at end of run. Regardless it’s better than 12z with an eternity to wobble this back west some more. .
  10. coastal front
    Icon was not far off. Still had a bombing coastal low with coastal sections getting snow as the run ended. Chance it could have tucked more if it ran out far enough. That’s all you can ask for at this range .
  11. coastal front
    Such small changes in the tilt of the upper low makes it much easier to bring this thing back. It’s not like we have short wave inference with a kicker or washed out short wave. Look how this past week went we are still in a great spot here. .
  12. coastal front
    Lmao I’m to old to even realize. It wasn’t intentional lol .
  13. coastal front
    Changed to sleet around 11:30 in absecon. Measured 6-7” so I’ll call it 6.5”. All in all not to bad. Let’s see how long sleet holds before the plain rain .
  14. coastal front
    Sleet lines on the move but models really held the snow on a bit longer at the coast. Gonna wait until it’s on my doorstep for 1 last jeb walk but as of 8:45 I had 5 1-/2” and it’s been coming down good since. .
  15. coastal front
    If I don’t flip by 12 I could maybe flirt with double digits. Closing in on 4” with a wall of 1-3” an hour until then .
  16. coastal front
    Eyeballing close to 3” in absecon. It’s coming down between 1-3 inches an hour right now it’s wild .
  17. coastal front
    Probabaly have about a half inch. Heavy returns are on my doorstep step. .
  18. coastal front
    My warning down the shore went from 5-7 to 6-10. First flakes are falling now. Got about 8-10 hours to pile it up. .
  19. coastal front
    I think the heavy rates that we will get helps abate the sleet progression. Farther south they don’t have that what so ever .
  20. coastal front
    Once the waa thump beefs up towards sunrise with 1-3” an hour rates it should slow the sleet line a bit. Something farther south doesn’t have right now.
  21. coastal front
    Every model other than the nam has close to 6-8” for me towards absecon. All comes down the thump and hour of change over. Nam is closer to 10 am while other models are closer to 12-1pm. 2/3 hour difference might not seem like a lot but if it’s coming down at an inch+ an hour adds up. Tomorrow am will be the ultimate nowcasting .
  22. coastal front
    These initial warm air advection regimens usually come in early and that should help before the real warm surge off the upper level low tracking to our west. We will thump and thump good but totals will really come down to how we perform in 6-8 hours. .
  23. coastal front
    Man almost every model has close to atleast 8” down here besides the nam. I’d take that and run. Let’s hope we keep beefing up that thump throughout tomorrow .
  24. coastal front
    Gfs with the monster signal still at 18z
  25. coastal front
    I think that’s an incredible trend for a model that still produced really well. Looks like a delayed phase since the northern piece pushed east a bit as well as more confluence
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