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Jt17

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Everything posted by Jt17

  1. Jt17
    Like I said. Not their forecast. That's an experimental thing you can look at. Their expected snowfall is 7 and puts NYC in the 6-8 band and Upton just updated their warning to 6-9 inches. They aren't buying the euro. .
  2. Jt17
    Not their forecast .
  3. Jt17
    When it gets to game time he lowers his expectations so if what is forecasted doesn't verify he isn't hurt. But going back to 4-8 still seems right based on all guidance for NYC which is what the Upton Winter storm warning had before bumping to 5-9 overnight. .
  4. Jt17
    Posting this was worse than posting Kuchera. .
  5. Jt17
    Looks just like Upton at 1 pm .
  6. Jt17
    The GFS improved a ton, the Ukie improved a ton. The last euro run was great... 1 random run of the euro had a step back, 5 days out. The Euro reaction right now is exactly what I told my friend would happen in this thread at some point, whether we get the storm or not in the end. Such a fun social pattern to observe year after year. .
  7. Jt17
    30+ hours of snow would be fun .
  8. Jt17
    Get emmmmm .
  9. Jt17
    Anthony posted 2 different storm separated by four days. GFS storm is in six days. .
  10. Jt17
    Looking at the radar pretty sure they're going to report over a foot by the end. .
  11. Jt17
    That's not how a trend works. The gfs actually went monster hit, to too amped that it hugged the coast and now it's gone the other way a bit. If anything the trend is the monster hit. I'm being literal here, but words matter - what you're describing isn't a trend. You're just saying something that backs your hunch. .
  12. Jt17
    This is a damn good post. .
  13. Jt17
    This is a damn good post. .
  14. Jt17
    There's nothing that shows that. .
  15. Jt17
    It's in a small minority at this point. .
  16. Jt17
    NYC is smack in the middle of basically the most northern and southern modeling at the moment... heavier wetter snow storm or slightly colder less intense storm. Either way it probably ends up 6-8 inches by either cutting the clown map output on a warmer wetter storm or keeping it closer to 10-1 for a colder drier storm. It's north or south from the city that actually looks like the tough forecast for a change. .
  17. Jt17
    Sounds about right. Thanks!
  18. Jt17
    Not the way to look at it. 20.3 inches is definitely ahead of avg on this date. The avg as of Feb 1 was below 15 inches for all 3 NYC airports. (not sure what it is for 2/13, but it can't be 5 inches more)
  19. Jt17
    La Guardia approaching 25 inches on 2/13, not bad.
  20. Jt17
    That's was the full run on pivotal, they're 18 hours for hrrr and like I said earlier to somebody else the final totals won't be as west oriented as these look since it would still be snowing past this.
  21. Jt17
    HRRR 01z (still snowing):
  22. Jt17
    Would be nice to get another 2-4 inches area wide. This winter hasn't been as doomsday as the weenies make it out to be.
  23. Jt17
    I think the fact that it's still snowing when this run ends explains why east hasn't filled out as much as west. It seems like it will be a pretty wide swath of relatively similar totals area wide.
  24. Jt17
    I think he means through the current date.
  25. Jt17
    big ol' whiff
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