Jt17
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Everything posted by Jt17
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Only the Globals are doing this and they usually do this right as the storm starts. Here's a nice new snow map. Maybe it can help people off the ledge. .
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You like looking at 3 models with the lowest totals and selectively forgetting the models that do show more and deciding that's your forecast. They like to see a sub 970 low crawling up the coast and chilling by Atlantic City and extrapolate that the higher end of model guidance is more likely since that should dump a ton of snow. .
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lol some of the mesos have been creeping up, last few runs compared to their previous run at the same end time. Globals are way out of their wheelhouse now. .
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Been mostly white rain since 10 AM in Jersey City. Snow flakes could be falling from the sky for over 24 hours per most guidance .
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The snowstorm doesn't arrive until 4 pm. This is just an appetizer. .
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His personal modelology. .
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At 9z tmr morning RAP has 13 inches vs 9 for HRRR. Easy to get caught up in every model run, but a 970 low just spinning in the same perfect spot for while is going to go nuts. .
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Two more runs and it will catch up the GFS while the first snowflakes already falling lol .
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3k nam-ish .
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It's really mesoscale time imo .
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No it's not. It's 18-30" for the entire state of NJ and NYC metro. .
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Looks like it includes snow next week but still, crazy. .
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Yep and best banding will set up northwest of it most likely. .
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The mesoscale models beefing up as we get closer is... fun. .
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You're conflating 2 different topics. EPS the euro ensemble is west and wetter than the Euro OP. It's a good red flag. Means OP is potentially still playing catch up. The tucked model he is referring to is RAP. It's a good thing. Looks like GFS and NAM .
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Gfs is so deceiving. Look at the snow map. It's just if not MORE robust than previous runs. NYC is at 17 and 10 miles south is at 27. The northern and western extents of heavy snow are the same. That run really is just like before and in the NAM camp. .
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GEFS actually trended west. The gfs suite including AI have stayed in about a 20 mile band all day. Let's not get carried away. .
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GEFS slightly snowier at 18z over 12z lol .
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This is a tremendous cave to the GFS. To those saying they needed non-US models on board. Here you go... and it's possibly underdone based on Ukies bias. .
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X10. .
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I'd like to point out there's about .8 qpf diff between nyc and 15 miles south and it doesn't like a southern adjustment, just some randomness from this run. .
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Not trying to derail the convo here, but Kalshi or polymarket for these sort of current event things. I really bet weather on it lol .
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Got in days ago for the over on 6 inches at 4/1 odds - feeling confident lol .
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Sure moved 75 miles west. .
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With that deep low track in a near perfect spot I really would ignore the output. It looks underdone. .
