Northof78

Now light snow/sleet mix

Mostly sleet now in W Essex, seems changeover is ahead of schedule by an hour or so

Change line coming in hot, snow/sleet now east of 287 along 78 in Somerset Cnty

Heavy rain, winds stating to pick up from N/W

3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

12Z CMC is a big sleet/freezing rain storm for most 

Much colder than previous run

Measured 2.0” OTG with moderate snow, some roads covered, some not

This is looking quite potent and slow moving on radar at the moment...

New NAM snows till Super Bowl starts

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

So the ending time is getting later now?

 

 

Might not be till late afternoon/early evening 

1-3”, isolated 4/5” amounts a few places where bands set up

NAM looks to put highest amounts in interior N NJ

GFS finally coming around with a 1-2" snowfall in N/C NJ and NYC, more in C/S NJ

EURO anything?

thread started for this storm

Most 12z Models now have at least a notable winter storm hitting the area on 2/13-2/14. 

Arctic boundary now clearly visible on radar cutting across Somerset, Essex, Union, Bergen, and NYC, about a 20-25F difference in a matter of 10 miles or so

Looks like a net 'pack-add' storm rather than a net melt...

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Big trend towards the GFS this run.

Colder surface but mid-levels remain warm.

Just an FYI, you need the warm air aloft to get the precip in the first place.

If the mid levels trend colder there will be much less precip.

Bottom line, virtually no chance of this ending up as a snow event for us.

I would be surprised now with colder/south trends if anyone (outside maybe coastal SI/LI) will not be above mid/upper 30s during storm, while 95 N&W probably a large amount of frozen/freezing. 

GFS increase amounts nicely from 1-3/2-4" to around 6" (still much ice/sleet, etc.)

Just now, WestBabylonWeather said:

Lock it in? 

Got to use the Kuchera formula, does a great job of separating ice, sleet, and snow, that has about 1-3"/2-4" of snow for most of metro along with much sleet, some ice

Looks like mostly frozen/snow N/C NJ and north with this arctic high pressing and a less wound up storm

wherever the boundary sets up, just to its north will get a lot of frozen/snow, right now GFS is mostly north with maybe 1-4” with a little late development, CMC, EURO, UKIE range from near us to well south...

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

26.5, but that is conservative because of wind. Lots of snow. 
 

Awesome...