Northof78

I think all models (GFS, EURO, CMC, RGEM, [NAM sortive]) basically narrowing in on a 12-18" storm from C NJ/LI/Metro northward for about 50-75 miles. However yes, the confluence is becoming more pronounced on the northern edge....

Guessing GFS is roughly 12" to 18" area-wide?

RGEM & GFS (to an extent the NAM) now in agreement for a MECS nearly area wide, there is a growing concensus of a sharp northern gradient and a pretty 'extreme' confluence cutoff...but likely mostly north of our subforum. 

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

RGEM is absolute beauty for this area, but 6z NAM and Euro looked more amped. We really don't want that getting out of hand-this needs to start making a beeline east once it gets to around Cape May. 

NAM is colder and further S/E, but still a very odd solution overall without much precip really anywhere (actually surpressed with northern extent of precip)....would lean heavily away from NAM and towards CMC/Euro combo with a touch of GFS