Northof78

1.2" @ Millburn

EURO a whiff?

Final Prediction:

E LI: 1-2"
W LI/C NJ Coast: 1-3"
NYC/C NJ/NE NJ (inland): 2 - 4"
W NJ/ S NY State: 3 - 6"

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Cmc is a pretty decent hit

2-4/3-5"?

GFS/EURO horrible with this storm compares with NAM/RGEM, GFS basically has a coastal hugger at this point with significant precip...borderline warning storm for just inland 

12z NAM true coastal...

Nam verbatim is a decent coastal storm with moderate/borderline warning accums inland,  light accums at coast, probably too amped, but that is the trend 

Looks to be potential for a coating - locally 2" North and very highs winds with arctic front passage tomorrow....

57 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

Good look but I have a flight on the 20th...

I have a flight as well late the 19th, where you heading...

NAM looks really nice for Tuesday...3-5" through hour 84 for entire forum

90% of the time storms get more amped and N/W from 24/36 and out across the model suite (see last snowstorm), so I think we are in pretty good shape here. 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59901-january-6th-winter-storm-observations/

Obs thread started

EWR 35/13, nice airmass

Both GFS/NAM strong signal for front end thump of 2-4/3-6" with no CCB/wraparound which sounds reasonable. Should be a nice storm vs. last 2 years of nothing with some period of moderate/heavy snow. 

Front end thump with 2-4"/3-6" probably across most of region. 

NAM 12Z as expected shifted SE/colder and most precip fall as snow w of Hudson with front end thump, 3-6"/4-8" verbatim

Fresh, cold, dry new infusion in place, everything still seems on track with original forecast for 3-6"+ W GSP/N 78, 1-3" NYC/-I-95, C -1" east of there...enjoy what you get and ignore wobbling models...probably a shift back S/E slightly with 12/18z models as wobbling continues...

GAME ON,; GFS, EURO, RGEM all very close now with N NJ and W metro and NW in a significant snow storm. 

Better/Colder Euro run for many, worse for none

RGEM (always one of warmest models) giving good snow to many should be the sign...we are in early January with decent cold/dry/fresh air injected in 1-2 days prior to storm with a good track...we will snow. 

Everything still looks good and on track with an increasingly strong storm for 3-6"+ N of 78 and W of GSP, borderline 1-3"/2-4" near NYC, and then sloppy 1" or so W LI N NJ Coast...looks like a really nice storm for many (not all) in the forum. 

Looks like 50-100 mile model run flip flopping, but relatively safe to say NJ coast/most of LI 1" or less, NYC borderline but most likely 1-3/2-4" decent storm, once into N/C NJ and NW NJ 3-6/4-8"...

This is a decent airmass, highs in upper 30s and dry will do it every time without too much of an issue in early January

Looks like W of GSP and N of 78, good to go for a SECS; right along 95, tight, but probably decent accums of 2-4", once east of the city/LI/beaches less than 1"