Ephesians2

01.31.2026 - 0.2" Total 12.7"

reports of 6-12 inches just 50 miles to my south current total: 0.2" oh well I was so close

yeah, but just barely. it's actually been snowing at incredibly slow rates since about 7:00 this morning. Only a dusting though, it's just been that dry.

yeah... we were so close now watch whatever happens middle of next week be a DC-Baltimore special and miss us by the same amount to the north at least we got the December events!

Yes, slightly so. Not what we need in Central VA but it is so, so close.

For RIC it has 7" of snow on 0.2" precip But where it is REALLY broken is along the northwest fringe, as you can see there is basically no QPF but the NBM is still showing accumulating snow.

the NBM is unfortunately broken. its ratios are wildly overstated - I know there have been discussions of 15-20:1 ratios, but the ratios the NBM uses at least on the weatherbell maps are like 40:1, 50:1, or even more in some situations

It's trended NW a bit with the upper low. the problem is we have other features trending in the wrong direction

It would seem like suppression is not the concern if that depiction holds. This week we have a strong PNA ridge. Not the case in that map.

We are so close in Central VA to either a near total whiff or a widespread warning level event.

Yeah we have three different surface lows on the GFS. Really weird depiction that robs a lot of moisture. Despite a bit of improvement at 500mb its going to be about the same as 06z with respect to snow

At 36h the GFS is a tick west at 500mb. If the CAMs are right about this second Bermuda low it won't matter. But worth noting

RGEM trending in the wrong direction. Drier, more progressive.

We are getting most of the trends we want at 500mb but it looks like we have another low developing way offshore robbing moisture from the main one

12z NAM looks better at 500mb at 45h. West of both 00z and 06z and a tad less confluence