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Ephesians2

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About Ephesians2

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KLYH
  • Location:
    Lynchburg, VA

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  1. Ephesians2
    I'll take it.
  2. Ephesians2
    Not off to a good start. NWS forecast for "a half to three quarters of an inch" overnight - actually still completely dry. Month to date precip? 0.3".
  3. Ephesians2
    The Eternal Nina of 2016-2026 continues.
  4. Ephesians2
    is that ridge south of the aleutians a nino pattern?
  5. Ephesians2
    already pretty neutral looking, we'll almost certainly have a positve PDO by November/December. We also got a pretty good pacific pattern the last two winters even with Nina/-PDO
  6. Ephesians2
    The warm pool definitely isn't as extreme as it was a month ago
  7. Ephesians2
    Not sure what you mean. It's part of the -PDO that has been around for years and was why 2023-24 was so weird. Hopefully we see that warm blob actually break down into the fall.
  8. Ephesians2
    If you really squint you can see the warmth around Japan dissipating a bit
  9. Ephesians2
    Is that ridge from NW of Hawaii to Japan normal for a Nino? Or is that due to the PDO and really warm water in that area?
  10. Ephesians2
    Enjoy https://www.instagram.com/reel/DcRGIBvuVJ_/?igsi=MXpwNDJyOTdid3c5
  11. Ephesians2
    implies a bad Pacific, which I think is more likely than not unless the PDO reverses
  12. Ephesians2
    Sorry, I meant underperformed based on what would expect if you were given the 500mb composite in advance, not expectations. Bad patterns were total shutouts and mediocre patterns became bad winters. 2018-19 is the only one that I think "luck" might have been in our favor - the Pacific was awful that year.
  13. Ephesians2
    I think there's been a lot of "bad luck" the last few winters. Relative to what you'd expect with the overall pattern: 2017-18: underperformed (Dec and Jan produced very little for most of the forum) 2018-19: near expected 2020-21: MAJOR underperformance for most of the forum. 2021-22: near expected 2023-24: near expected 2024-25: slightly underperformed 2025-26: underperformed 2016-17, 19-20, and 22-23 were all awful seasonal patterns but you could argue they underperformed because they could have been like 4-8 inch seasonal totals, not total shutouts. Like even 2011-12 had a 7 inch fluke storm down here that missed DC. Hopefully we finally get the flukes to break in our favor this winter.
  14. Ephesians2
  15. Ephesians2
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