WinterWxLuvr

I want to move there, just nw of Portland Me, Auburn Me, or bite the bullet and move to Rangeley, Me. New Hampshire and Maine are incredible

Not this time. Out precip isn’t going to come from there.

What I’m saying is look where the mean had it at day 10 and compare that to where it actually was. Pretty good imo. And when you say it was heading into you are basically extrapolating it out to days 20+

Your looking at that mean curve, skewed obviously by outliers. Not unexpected past day 10. Fine let’s look at its 10 day forecast.

Considering that that was a forecast for Jan 15, that yesterday was Jan 16, and the MJO position was this .... I’d say it worked out pretty damn good And yes if you follow the mean curve it didn’t die and curve, but the general movement for a 15 day forecast was great.

I could be wrong, but I don’t think it will be a problem there, DC north. Gonna be evaporational cooling to go along with a stout cad setup. I could be wrong, but think precip is the real worry. Now if it’s afternoon before any meaningful precip makes it, that’s another story.

Y’all can stop worrying about temps.

Can you work some magic and get some precip to show up. Right now for me the euro is the wettest model. That’s never a good thing because it’s usually dry, and usually right.

This one is all about the precip ... and whether we get any

GFS brought higher precip close to pa border and overall is wetter to the north of us. Need another 75 miles. Trying to see positives

Would need to see before 1950 to make conclusions.

The NAMs did improve. So

I feel that is a common theme of many below avg winters. At least here it seems to be.

NAM is improved lol. Trying to hang on to something.

Dec 2009 Feb 2010 Jan 2019

Penguins fans. Lol

Gotta day ... this is the most disappointing event of the winter for me ... at least as it looks now. I was never disappointed by the early Dec event because we never get those anafrontal events to work. But these ... I understand what PSU is saying about the WAA but you get that low in Cincinnati and we’d be talking about a warning level event. Instead it chose to go to Manitoba lol. But hey, it’s been ten years, but the miracle of Jan 2010 is still alive in my memory. It was the 12z runs that day that started it all. Not giving up yet lol. And if not there will always be another one someday

Really hard to put faith in anything NAM, but it did shift heavier precip south not so much here, but to the west which might imply a faster push of heavier precip before the temps are gone. I don’t know, this storm is very frustrating .

Do they do this stuff in snowier locations? Like New England?

Ok, so honest question probably showing my ignorance, but how is that harmful to the bay?

What exactly is that stuff they put on the roads?

But it’s such a consistent model?

Well at least there’s a glimmer of hope with the gfs trends. All I would like is enough white that can survive the day and have a little covering heading into colder temps next week.

Exact phrase I threw out 2 days ago. Hate that it’s come to that. Not there yet though.

NAM is still not in trustworthy range. But one can’t feel good about this thing right now.