WinterWxLuvr

A w to e move will almost certainly help on the front end precip amounts. Overall I think the last few runs are at the least encouraging. Several ensemble members are getting close to getting that low in a good spot.

Don’t think the initial cad will be the issue. Might affect the duration, but how much precip will we get while the gettin is good is the question.

And that’s why I think the low has to get at least to the Ohio River

Mainly because there’s very little precip at all to the sw on the east side of the apps

I agree with that.

I’d rather stay interested in a possible winter event that is within a reasonable range than worry about hypothetical “better” events. If those come to fruition I’ll be highly interested in them as well. Until then I’m gonna follow this until it’s over or no longer feasible. I agree with you that people don’t need to live and die by model runs but I’m not getting why some are dismissing this chance. We followed an anafrontal “event” that had no chance imo and rarely if ever do. These types of events work for us often, at least some of us. We don’t have the climate to ever dismiss a chance.

I think this is highly dependent upon what goes on in that northern stream. Still seeing a lot of fluctuation there. We are still at least 5+ days away. It may very well not go our way but I don’t think we are out by a long shot, especially with some improvement shown with the gfs.

Yeah, no part should be over the line

I think it’s significant, especially for an ens mean. I’d bet there are some significant storms in that mix

Don’t think it’s hopeless.

I certainly appreciate your maps but for me it would be so helpful to have the 0z map as well for comparison. Thanks

I think the focus is more the position of the low. Yes I know the cad is a function of the same mechanism that positions the low but the low position will probably dictate the amount of precip in that vital initial slug. Both models took significant steps in moving that low further southeast. Get that low better positioned and I think it’s game on and an added bonus would likely be a deeper stronger cad wedge. Just my opinion.

In a major league way.

The gfs is trending back our way. Small steps but next weekend is still very much in play IMO.

That can’t be rationally explained

Why do you go for two there? Now you have to go for two every time instead of one time.

LOL.

One reason I think not playing people the last week is a bad idea.

Wow

How are supposed to not hit him there?

Vikings o-line couldn’t protect for two seconds, receivers couldn’t shake defenders, but I’m sure Cousins will be blamed.

Well I’ve been a fan for over 50 years. They need to do it before I die.

This San Fran defense is super fast, everywhere.