WinterWxLuvr
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Everything posted by WinterWxLuvr
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Just have to keep watching what transpires. The last 24 hours of runs has not been kind. The 12z euro started this yesterday. Perhaps it starts the trend the other way.
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Explaining why the Euro is always right?
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It’s Tuesday. The storm is Saturday. That’s really all that needs to be said, especially when one has no faith in LR forecasting.
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I’ll say this much on a positive note ... the gfs is flat cold to start Saturday. Guess we just need to pray for copious early precip
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Seems like you’re saying what I’m saying. Maybe I’m confusing with my language. The sharper deeper trough out there is driving the low north. We need that trough to be flatter and drive that low more East before it sharpens and begins to drive that low north. 100% agree that the low has to be further south. Way further south.
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Hard not to be when the low is 1500 miles away.
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ICON was actually better imo
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There’s a piece of energy coming out of Siberia in the next 24 hours that looks to me we would be better if it somehow went poof. Without it our trough might not be as deep. It wasn’t there about three days ago on the runs.
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Yeah I agree. Get some snow cover and it can get as cold and dry as it wants
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The trend though is a deeper trough and more ridging. That’s why the low went north at 18z. However this is the second time the models have done this with this storm. Last time it reversed itself for a few runs. Long way to go. Nothing to worry about or get excited about at this point imo.
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That trough deepens any more it’s gonna pop enough ridging that this is gonna cut to Minnesota. If there’s anything I’m gonna be hoping for as I watch the 500 come in on the 0z runs its going to be for a much flatter look mid continent. I certainly am not being a deb but I don’t think there’s been anything positive about the last 8 hours of runs ... Euro and gfs.
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See that’s where I’m looking at the other ... the cad doesn’t worry me. It’s the depth of that trough in the center of the country. It was deeper this time and the low went north a bit, hence the lighter early precip. Been around long enough to know to not worry about op runs at 5 days, but just being honest the 18z wasn’t the look I had hoped to get.
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There ya go. And I do think there’s a chance that happens. Put it in the Tn valley and you have a real shot of it jumping and basically dry slotting and never get above freezing
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The air certainly seems to have leaked out of this place. LOL
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What happened with the euro seems to be because the trough in the plains is deeper. Mentioned this a day or so ago. We need it flatter out there. It wasn’t a huge change but evidently the low is really sensitive to the depth of that trough.
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This is similar to the Chill storm of 2012. In that case the euro was way to far north with the low at several days out than what actually happened
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Low position keeps improving on gefs for Saturday.
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Not out yet on PSU but I can’t wait to see the low positions on the gefs
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Truly am pretty busy though. Seriously, any gefs output available yet?
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LOL, c’mon guys. I was throwing shade on people who were downplaying this storm waiting on a better one. No way we should ever look pst a threat especially the type that is as reliable as anything we have for delivering winter weather.
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I’m busy at work and can’t look much. How’s the next storm looking? I’m more interested in it than this one.
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You won’t get a transfer that helps our region unless you get that low into about Tennessee. I don’t see that happening right now.
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Diggin is a good word. Need that confluence to keeping shoving that low east.
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You aren’t going to get one.
