WinterWxLuvr

Interesting that now both the gfs and the euro show a little light snow here on Thursday afternoon. ICON first floated this idea but then backed away.

Are these maps you are posting 24 hour snowfall?

The euro took a substantial jump nw. Not enough but noteworthy.

Stats don’t work that way. If you did an average per day over the winter months, today might have an average snowfall of 0.1” of snow (as an example). If we don’t get 0.1” of snow, is this an abnormal day?

The UKIE just totally capitulated to the euro. If this works out like the euro has shown then it’s quite an affirmation of just how good it is.

We do “setting up for the next storm” we’ll ... until it’s time for the next storm.

The gfs has a semi closed 500 feature it Minnesota that it didn’t have before. It comes along just at the right time to squash this low a bit to the East moreso than in the prior runs. There are so many pieces flying around it’s probably gonna be within 48 until we know what’s really going on. People who downplay this as insignificant are probably correct but I’m pretty sure those of us who are following it aren’t hurting anyone by doing it

Gonna be before it’s over

It didn’t go south at all. In fact it came north. It weakened the low.

Hope everyone is having a great day!

Nobody posted that the UKIE also increased precip a good amount. Euro really is standing in its own here.

Haha good call. It looked better but then just seemed to wash out. Oh well

Think the ICON is gonna be north and stronger. Probably should let it play out I guess.

If you want to do this, do it in the banter thread. Or find a two year old to join you.

Long way from a negative tilt though I think

For now

That makes two of us

Right as the Icon which had shown snow here for several runs in a row loses it.

Unless we hurry that 8.5 is gonna smoke this January

3 or 4. But I only see what’s posted to PSU. I think there are actually about double that number that actually exist.

There are a few gfs members that say don’t give up on the weekend just yet

The UKIE is a big jump towards an actual storm for the weekend.

Still nothing as far as I can see

Sorry but they show the basic climatology of the area. Just like das pointed out. And yes, that’s always a low chance for snow. Anyway, I’m dropping it. To each their own.

You could post that map for any 15 day period from mid December to mid February and those are probably pretty close to our chances all the time. The maps he’s posting rarely change, perhaps a 10-20% swing. If you want to base your thoughts on whether we get x amount of snow over a 16 day period based on that then go right ahead. I guess you can manufacture stats to back you up. But I’ll bet if you could somehow get the snowfall totals for any 16 day stretch over the past 50-100 years for any location on that map that those stats will match that map pretty closely.