WinterWxLuvr

6 of the last 14 at KOKV have been in the 40’s. It’s also October 6.

I think seasonal pattern and temp forecasting has some degree of skill and accuracy. However, I think it is still a low probability of success no matter the method, skill, or experience. The part that I think has virtually zero reliability is snowfall prediction. I would love to go back and see the long range outlook for 2015-16. My guess with it being a Nino the predictions were normal to slightly cooler temps with normal to above snowfall. If so, the temps would have been off. The snow probably spot on but only because of pure luck. Take away the bomb, which easily could have never happened, and that winter was a total disaster that I am sure would not have been forecasted correctly. we may end up above normal in temps this year. I don’t know. But we could end up above normal snow as well. Snow is so much about luck and timing. I just don’t think that can be forecast at long range.

A positive outlook is discouraged. Take a time out and come back strong

Do people not understand how an average is found? Do they not realize that if your normal high temp is, say, 68, that to get that average there had to be a bunch of days that were well above that?

It’s awful. It should be 20’s and snowing

100%

The euro can’t get a 5 day forecast right

Oh yes

Awesome pic

I want to see (if it could possibly be determined) the effect of the Arctic ice. One, it’s higher than it’s been since 2014 and if I’m not mistaken, it’s increasing in an area that is unusual. I was thinking that sea ice normally takes off first towrd the northern coast of Russia and that is not happening. The largest increase is happening just north of Alaska. At least that’s the way it looks to me. Nothing scientific or predictive here, just a curiosity.

BTW, in case anybody has been away and just started reading again … Winter is over

What a wuss

Exactly. Not one thing, including a good winter

I may change mine to no freeze this year at any airport. Maybe 2022

Bama is just loaded. Geez

There was nothing here in 2016 outside of one weekend. Literally nothing. I think maybe about 1/2”

Fair enough. But I only evaluate winter here. That 2012-2013 stat for DC is amazing. If my memory serves, that winter had low 30’s or so here with over 20 in March alone. It was really nice around Christmas with 3” on Christmas Eve, and the about 6” of snow, sleet, freezing rain the day after Christmas.

How you classify 2012-2013 and last year as bad winters baffles me. 2015-2016 was awful save 3 days. 2017-2018 was terrible. I guess what you say is true. It’s subjective.

That may be true but forgotten is how close that winter came to being a very good winter wrt snowfall. There were several times that we simply unlucky. Several come to mind for me. There was the early Dec clipper that slid just to our south. The Boxing day fiasco and the snow that preceded it I think on Christmas Day. The early January storm that looked good up until the last minute when it went just a little too far north. A mid February storm that delivered a ton more sleet than it was supposed to and dropped about 8” from Hagerstown north. Id roll the dice with that winter again.

Lol they just thought they were good

No way IAD is Nov 25. That would be unbelievable.

Chuck canceled winter again

I think winter is over again, but I can’t tell. Stay tuned.

Clever, but he may be too young to get that.