StormfanaticInd

1 hour ago, crossbowftw3 said:

So 7/19/19 levels of instability along with the derecho potential from last August, definitely rather eye-popping 

Today has explosive potential 

WOW!!! You don't see this too often. 6500 cape already!!!

Everything is in place for a derecho to happen. Just a question of where?

KIND

The final issue for the short term and the one that is likely to
have the greatest impact on just exactly how Thursday plays out
focuses on the expectation of a mesoscale convective complex to
organize across the upper Midwest Wednesday evening in tandem with a
strong upper level wave. Trajectories support a southeast moving
cluster that will likely produce severe weather Wednesday night
aided by an impressive near 50kt 850mb jet. The general movement on
the system would bring it into N/NE Indiana during the predawn hours
Thursday with at least some potential that the tail end of the
cluster works south into part of the northern forecast area.
Considering the possibility that this system will mature enough to
develop a cold pool...am almost anticipating that the convection
will develop further back on its southwest flank into parts of
central Indiana near daybreak Thursday.

The questions that remain are...how far S/SW into the forecast area
the storms can make it Thursday morning and what intensity will they
have when they arrive? The nocturnal jet will weaken by 12Z Thursday
and largely remain to the north of central Indiana. That would
suggest that if the convective complex becomes cold pool
dominant...at some point the storms will outrun their low level fuel
source...weaken and eventually diminish. At this point...that will
likely take place somewhere across the northern half of the forecast
area Thursday morning. Still a lot of details to work out...but
there is some merit that this could serve as the initial salvo in a
1-2 convective punch for the region by leaving a leftover boundary
for new storms to fire on later on Thursday. It also presents some
uncertainty with how much convective cloud debris departs Thursday
morning and how that might impact available instability for new
storms later in the day. 

More smoke


Another toasty afternoon for the region with a noticeable increase
in the haze over Monday as more smoke aloft has drifted into the
region. 

The HRRR vertically integrated smoke parameters
look to increase again on Wednesday as another surge of greater
concentrated smoke extends into the region...although the highest
levels of smoke should largely remain to the northwest

Mcs Wednesday night could squash the severe threat Thursday 

3 hours ago, Jonger said:

A lot of people realizing that they're mortal and are struggling to accept it. You get sick anytime after 80...you might be a goner.

Covid101....along side every other infection 

Covid is not like "every other" infection. That should be more than obvious by now. 

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

0z fv3 brings some micro cane action to southern lake michigan

anyone wanna let me and malacka borrow the sailboat to go chasing?

28 minutes ago, Avon said:

The Nam is going wild again with the parameters for this wed/thurs setup like it did saturday, only going to take it with a grain of salt though until further model agreement is established.

I was just about to post about that. Insane parameters and if verifies could get very interesting 

60 percent chance of a watch for the Chicago area 

Cumulus clouds building overhead. Wonder if I will hear thunder today 

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

Going to be close. Lol

3 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Another smokey day

Only good thing about the smoke is that it's keeping temperatures in check. Also may be contributing to lower instability 

Another smokey day

6 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Severe weather looks very possible next week with storm clusters 

5 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

GFS continues to suggest mid-next week could finally be a classic NW flow ridge-rider derecho pattern for parts of the upper Midwest. Been a while since we got into a good one of those (8/10/20 was kind of a fluky one-off).

Severe weather looks very possible next week with storm clusters 

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

And things will probably pick up again in fall/winter (maybe focused more in the northern states at that time?).  We are pretty much in the learn to live with it stage.

Actually I am curious to see what will happen in just a month or two as kids return to school.  It has been thought that schools are not necessarily prime sources of transmission, but there will be more schools doing in-person learning than last year and there's a possibility that mitigation measures that were previously effective in schools may not hold up as well against delta.

The delta variant seems to be stronger and affects young people more easily. 

As far as the fall and winter there are many variables at play. Pretty much flying somewhat blind. Hopefully it doesn't get too out of control 

*Edit Yikes Florida had over 12k cases today 

2 hours ago, nwohweather said:

Hot damn expected some cool pictures of the smoke, not virology talk. It's a meteorology thread folks

I only bring it up because we are indeed in a fourth wave which sucks

Seems like a good mcs/mcc pattern next week 

We are indeed in a fourth wave folks. Even I didn't think this would happen again. Yikes

If this pattern keeps up it will once again mean early season cold for the fall

8 hours ago, Hoosier said:

LOT actually put the smoke word in for some areas.

"Widespread haze. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. North wind 5 to 7 mph becoming light and variable after midnight."

I've never seen so much haze/smoke. I think it actually held the temperature down 

6 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

This appears the year of the never ending heatwave out west

This pattern could have implications down the road later in the year if it sticks around