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StormfanaticInd

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Posts posted by StormfanaticInd

  1. KIND. 
    
    Focus will then shift to a surface wave kicking out across the
    Central Plains along the boundary. This will pull the boundary back
    north into the forecast area Thursday night with what is likely to
    be the most organized threat for convection as the surface wave
    tracks through the forecast area Friday morning. Expect widespread
    showers and storms with the low pressure passing through the region
    late Thursday night into Friday and riding along the instability
    gradient which at this point which is likely to setup over the
    forecast area in the vicinity of the front. With the presence of a
    stronger low level jet nosing into the region and modest BL shear
    values as well...potential for robust convection to impact parts of
    the forecast area remains a threat. CIPS analog guidance continues
    to offer historical support in a greater threat for strong to severe
    convection over parts of the region.
  2. 3 hours ago, mattb65 said:

    Down below 30,000 on the 7 day average, we are experiencing exponential decay, the halving is happening about once every 3 weeks right now,  if the rate of decay remains constant, we'll be below 10,000 on the 7 day average in ~5 weeks, approximately June 22nd. That would be cutting it closer than I'd like for my bet.

    Hopefully the declines gain more momentum.

     

     

     

  3. 6 minutes ago, mattb65 said:

     

    I'm still liking my chances here, the trajectory on the decline looks good. 

    By July/August this thread is going to be dead anyways just like the pandemic. 

    :gun_bandana:

    I hope you are right. Getting below 10k is going to be a challenge 

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