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StormfanaticInd

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Posts posted by StormfanaticInd

  1. the forecast
    becomes murkier as multiple mitigating factors in play that suggest
    the widespread convective potential is lower across the forecast
    area than previously thought. There are growing signs of a split in
    the favored areas for rainfall and convection...with the MCS riding
    the instability gradient into the lower Ohio and western Tennessee
    Valleys by tonight while the second area focuses to the northwest of
    the region across northern Illinois into northern Indiana and lower
    Michigan as a small low level jet transports moisture and enhances
    lift around the top of the 850mb low. This will potentially place
    much of the forecast area in between the better instability and
    moisture to the southwest and stronger forcing aloft to the north
    and northwest through tonight. There are even hints of weak mid
    level subsidence and ridging over the area which further muddies
    widespread convective concerns.
  2.  From KIND :ph34r:

     

    There will be a severe threat with this convection late Thursday
    evening into Thursday night. The moderate WAA will keep the
    thermodynamic environment fairly conducive for longer. CAPE values
    around 1000 J/kg are expected to maintain through around 04Z;
    , diurnal cooling will begin to take over, limiting any
    SBCAPE. Prior to this, the development of a nocturnal LLJ along with
    a deepening surface low will create a fairly conducive environment
    for isolated severe thunderstorms. Wind will be the primary threat
    as by the time the thunderstorms reach central Indiana they should
    be primarily linear. The strengthening LLJ and resulting speed shear
    should help induce some RIJs within linear segments.
    
    As diurnal cooling takes over, the thunderstorms will become
    elevating reducing the wind threat greatly. This is likely to occur
    shortly after the 04-06Z time period. The severe threat for the
    entire region will greatly depend on when the thunderstorms reach
    central Indiana.
  3. 24 minutes ago, NEILwxbo said:

    Out chasing in the Plains, caught the large tornado as it moved into Selden, KS yesterday. Got some pretty amazing video as it started to hit town, you can make out power flashes as it gets to the edge of town in my video here 

     

    was def by far the best chasing experience I’ve ever had 

    It never ceases to amaze me the idiots that drive right into the tornado. Smh

  4. Eyeing Thursday night
    
    KIND
    
    
    
    Models then show a low forming over the central plains that will
    then move into the area Thursday. Rain could begin as soon as midday
    in the far western portion of the forecast area, but better chances
    look to be for the evening to overnight hours. This system seems to
    be a better organized event with a threat for severe weather
    included as the low passes through the area Thursday night into
    Friday. The low level jet will likely set up aloft and ample CAPE
    (in excess of 1000 J/kg) is also expected.
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