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StormfanaticInd

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Posts posted by StormfanaticInd

  1. KIWX

    An upper level trof will amplify over the eastern CONUS downstream
    of an anomalously strong upper ridge over the North American Rocky
    Mountains. Temperatures will become briefly warmer Tuesday ahead of
    an approaching cold front associated with the amplifying trof.
    GFS has been consistent the past 4 (6hr) runs with mass fields
    and general timing of the front. The 00Z GFS still favors a cold
    front passage from late Tuesday afternoon into early Tuesday night
    providing a diurnally favorable time for convection. Low level
    theta E will surge northeast in a narrow band during the day
    Tuesday. In addition to the advection of a modified elevated mix
    layer (EML), mid levels winds from 50 to 75 knots and thermal
    profiles of CAPE values reaching 1500 to 2000 J/Kg indicate
    favorable chances for damaging thunderstorm winds. The CIPS
    analogs continues to support chances for severe weather as very
    strong mid level winds develop. Have been keeping a watch on an
    analog from 9/10/1992 which matches mass fields quite well and
    portends in a severe direction
  2. From KIND

    A closed upper
    low and associated surface low are progged to track through the
    northern Great Lakes Region on Tuesday.  This will be a quick moving
    system though with any shower/thunderstorm chances out of the area
    by Tuesday night. However, thunderstorms will be a threat on Tuesday
    afternoon/evening as the environment destabilizes in the warm sector
    of the surface low.  Southwest surface flow will push daytime highs
    back into the mid to upper 80s for a day with dew points in the 60s.
     With the moderate instability and forcing, would not rule out
    isolated strong thunderstorms at times.
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