TowsonWeather

Ha! I remember a time when the north trend was a predictable phenomenon. Just hasn't really been that for quite some time now - certainly not consistently.

LOL... Riiiight. Forget the fact that the Euro consistently annihilates the GFS in verifications. If the GFS trips over it's own dong and lands on a diamond one time for our backyard, it's the new king, right? Good gravy.

You don't need frozen ground for snow to accumulate very quickly. That said, the potential for meh rates on this one - at least north of DC - could definitely make the OTG totals less impressive overall.

"I will say the GFS has handled this storm best" I mean - it def could score a win here once it's all said and done. But I'm not sure can say with confidence which model has handled this best until we see what actually transpires.

FWIW, we got a little over 5 here in Towson - maybe 5.25 or so IMBY. Which still isn't great, and I know amounts dropped off noticeably as you move north.

Good luck! Hope that goes well for ya. As much as we all love winter weather, it's no fun when it impacts health stuff.

I wish I could trust the SREF, but it's really not been great in these situations.

Exhibit A.

LOL...I've been a member on here for almost 15 years. I've not once - ever - made disparaging comments about Richmond or folks down south. And yet all it took was me pointing out (in ONE thread) that multiple Richmond/VA posters were the ones being bitchy and snarky and telling the group that makes up 90%+ of this forum to "cry more" and y'all immediately double down with more of that weird cocktail of defensiveness and gloating over digital snow. And that's toward someone that's always been vocal about cheering for our southern friends when they jackpot. Weird behavior, tbh. I'll continue hoping we all enjoy deep drifts of snow, and you can continue being insecure, hyper-defensive weirdos.

I am dead inside.

Maybe a little. But I'd argue that it's pretty realistic. The NWS understands how to interpret models/maps with comically inflated totals. Their forecast isn't based verbatim on snow maps that don't reflect reality on the ground. There's a reason you see professional mets in this thread suggesting that 3-5 is a reasonable region-wide forecast, at least as of right now. Here's hoping we continue to see a juiced-up trend, however - we'd all be onboard with that.

How much for Richmond?

Seen this movie too many times over the last 6-8 years for Baltimore. I know how it ends. I'm very aware of our climo and while I long for big storms, I fully appreciate how rare they are and how easy it is for us to go several years without anything really meaningful. But this is getting stupid. The entire state of VA, the beaches, and obv north and west of us have all jacked multiple times in recent years while we get the rug pulled again and again. I haven't whined about it once, but I'm reaching my breaking point, lol. Shit is turning me into the joker.

We didn't even get to 6 here in Towson.

Yeah, it's been fucking bleak on the north side of Baltimore for YEARS now. Was just telling my son how literally EVERYONE around us has scored nicely at some point over the last few years - but Baltimore and N/NE has been a persistent snow anus. In that context, the 18Z suits is a disaster. More of the same rerun we've seen literally dozens of times now lately. Disheartening. Yet again.

Models by no means did a "good job portraying the difficult setup in this one." Every storm has a cutoff and every storm has a certain degree of uncertainty or complexity. But I've been on these boards for a very long time and this is one of the worst misses for a wide swath of the region I can remember.

Absolutely fuck all in Towson. What an absurd bust.

NGL, if we mix in Towson after being in the icebox for weeks, I'm gonna be a bitter bitch. I know that's the way of it I've lived here most of my life. But that doesn't make it any less annoying, hehe.

It's almost literally like a photo negative...lol

You can tell who's new around here by how shocked they are that a phasing storm this far away disappears on the models from one run to the next.

1. I will be shocked if I get 50% as much as I've gotten so far in Round 2. Deeply skeptical - but you're right, it's not impossible. 2. As I mentioned in another post: it isn't just the amounts, it's the nature of the event. The rates were never remotely good, the flakes were pixie dust the entire time - just a boring, underwhelming, and not very dynamic event up here. After days and days of hype about how intense it would be. Just a bummer. 3. None of this is that big of a deal. Very happy for my southern friends who are cashing in - they get screwed all too often, so a good win is very welcome. I'm not losing any sleep about any of this, just pointing out the fact that it's been a letdown here in MBY and other parts of Baltimore on north.

This simply isn't true. friend. My forecast was 6-11 inches and I have 4.

Nope, it's sliding south of us and dissipating a bit. NGL, I didn't have massive expectations, but this is definitely a disappointment so far. About as boring a 4 inches as you'll ever see....mostly pixie dust and never really great rates.

Finally some verrrrry light flurries in Towson - well after the expected start time.

Whole lotta nothin so far in Towson.