TowsonWeather

I think it's just about that Western vort interaction - and speaks to how delicate it is. A slightly missed phase and we can get a GFS-like solution. A clean phase and we can be in for a primary into the Ohio Valley. Crazy impact downstream based on some really subtle stuff out west...

At no time was this even close to the model consensus.

Are you saying Raleigh ISN'T getting 3 feet of snow? Well THAT doesn't sound right.

80% huh?

I know this is banter and I know we've discussed it to some extent, but can we all just take a moment to admire the exquisite miracle of @Bob Chill getting so frustrated with our region's lack of snow that he not only basically said "I'm semi-retiring from the snow-tracking game," he up and moved to a place liable to get even less snow...annnnnd has now spent years getting pummeled into oblivion by storm after storm and looks set to profit yet again. No one deserves it more. Maybe the one person on this board I won't LOATHE if they get buried while I'm smoking cirrus in Towson. I salute you, sir. Whatever you did to please the winter gods, I thank you for (hopefully) sharing it with the rest of us this time around. I hope we are all digging out of thigh-deep drifts come Monday morning.

The GFS did start caving - and has been for days. It fully capitulated last night. This is just a brief relapse.

Pinks from Central NC to Upstate NY, and from Montauk to Eastern Ohio and the the western slopes of the Apps. Nice margin for error.

If you look at the ensemble members it's easy to see what's happening. The majority look a lot like the UKIE, CMC, etc. (although not quite as amped). But there are a handful of members that give us basically nothing - they all kind of look the same. I'm assuming these are the ones leaving the energy stuck back in the SW and missing any kind of phase. Those members are really skewing the average quite a bit.

15+ inches isn't HECS level?

I-95 max amounts special? We need this one, people.

The Euro solution isn't necessarily less snowy, it's just slower (at least the 6Z run). There's more to come - possibly much more to come - after 144.

Apologies if this has been posted elsewhere, but good lord. https://x.com/Electroversenet/status/2013280295341179216?s=20

If we miss out on this - or get an inch or two while Carolina weenies are buried under feet of snow - I might legit lose it. It's been WAY too long with WAY too many fails and comical underperformances... My kids are 16 and 13 and they literally have almost NO memory of a big snow - it's wild.

This is the most encouraging aspect of this to me: that the evolution of this system is much more straightforward and with fewer moving parts than is "typical" for a big MA snowstorm. Range of possible outcomes still on the table, but as these things go, the key pieces are clear. Figuring out the details of the southern energy ejection and when/if/how much it interacts with the northern stream will obviously tell the tale of where the biggest impact is, but we aren't counting so much on a precisely timed phase with a vort dropping in from western Canada - this is a long-track system with a surge of moisture into a cold antecedent airmass.

Yes, we are all very jealous of Richmond. That's why it rarely gets mentioned, because of how much people are thinking about it and wishing they lived there. Keen analysis.

He probably counted on your ability to extrapolate between 10-14 and 15-20.

Disastrous run for Baltimore. Short Pump wiped off the map and we only get a foot? Horrible. #Stormcancel

I'd give both. (of my kids or my nuts)

Not to be a nit-picker, but I don't think it's accurate to say those are the only two possible outcomes for this system - not at these lead times. Like you, I obviously hope the AI models have the right idea - and the ensemble support across the whole range of models provides good reason for optimism. The next 24 hours should be pretty telling. Not that we'll have things nailed down, per se, but we should have a much firmer grasp about how realistic this threat is (and for whom).

Prior to this you were not aware that ensembles were dramatically more valuable than OP runs 8-10 days out? Bruh. WAY too many posters in this thread - many of whom SHOULD know better - acting shocked and despairing about variable OP outcomes over a week away. Come on, folks.

It's the new Under Armour logo. "We must protect this house! (from snow)"

This new Frederick-Westminster mini maxima feels right to me. As a longtime member of MD's snow anus here in the northern Balmer Burbs, fretting about missing a snow to the SE only to - PSYCHE! - miss it to the NW just feels right. At a certain point, when pain is all you know, pain becomes the only way you can feel anything at all. The pain is a gift. Sometimes I come on here during one of the many storms that have missed us over the last decade while burying someone else close by in the region just to look at everyone's happy snow pics and let the pain reassure me that I haven't gone completely numb.