Brian D

Yeah, this last season was flipped from then.

Looks like your being dry slotted now. Well, I say "Don't count your chicks before they hatch". Models, and reality are 2 separate things.

MSP could end up with a top 5 snowiest March if the 2 (possibly 3) systems put out decently by Easter. If not MSP, some of the other stns across S MN sure could. 40.0 - 1951 37.1 - 1965 36.8 - 1985 29.9 - 1917 25.6 - 1940

Forecast discussion out of NWS DLH. Expecting a good ol' fashioned blizzard here on the North Shore. The main feature of the forecast is the expansive Colorado Low that is progged to arrive late Sunday and linger through early Wednesday. Latest guidance has pushed the arrival back several hours, and maybe decreased the overall QPF from the system a bit, but this still appears like it will be a significant system with long periods of heavy QPF in a cold air mass with strong northeast winds off of Lake Superior. I would expect blizzard conditions to develop along the North Shore with winds gusting to 45 to 50 mph in heavy snow. In terms of ensemble spread, the floor or minimum amounts of snow expected with this system are quite high at 6 to 9" over the most populated areas of our forecast area, the ceiling or maximum amount of snowfall expected are also quite high with over 2 feet possible (some locations may approach 30")!

They change there clocks over there at the end of March. So after Easter, they should be in sync with others.

As for Winter 2023/24, it's currently 3rd by the slimmest of margins behind 1931/32. 1931/32 (4.479) & 2023/24 (4.459*). Once all Feb data comes in, we'll see how that goes. 5 & 10 year trend charts shown respectively.

It's the first day of Spring, so I thought it would be good to wrap up Winter data. Some data has yet to come in, but that is nothing unusual. Agencies report when they report. Feb 2024 is currently running in 2nd behind 1998 by a couple tenths. 1998 (6.074) & 2024 (5.803*) This will change when all data comes in later. How much is yet to be seen. 5 & 10 year trend charts shown respectively.

The way I see it, when those legs spread.....GAME ON!

A longer stretch of a false Spring, followed by wintry wx can cause serious damage. Wait and see I guess.

Decent forecast, but the energy in the S is a bit more south, and the timing is off by a day.

A windy aftrn with snow showers. Chilly wx on the doorstep, but nothing too cold. Pretty seasonable stuff.

Yeah, LR is good to see potential pattern development, not temps/storm intensities, etc.

ERA5 data is correct up my way, but I also know how to play "Reindeer Games" too. But of course my new name would be "Rudolph" now.

Been really mellow wx wise my way, and fire danger is on the rise if we don't get a good rain/snow soon.

This date in Wx History March 14. Interesting that the term "Blizzard" was introduced to the populace back in 1870. Wonder what terms were used prior to that? Rather nasty ice storm in 1943. Duluth had it's weather office at a downtown location until the late 50's I believe, and airport data started in the late 20's, so there was overlap that was threaded. 1943: Snow, sleet and ice cripple parts of Minnesota south of a line from Duluth through St. Cloud and Ortonville. The heaviest ice was in the vicinities of Lake Benton, Springfield and Windom. Ice thickness was 1/2 to 3/4 inch around St. Cloud to 3/4 to 2 inches in the Pipestone, Ruthton, Lake Wilson, Slayton and Tracy. A good description of the ice was submitted in one report: '…ice was 2 inches across and 1 3/4 inch deep on wire. A little frost ice near the wire with the outside solid ice. The ice was irregular in shape.' Duluth had 6 inches of snowfall at the city office with 13 inches at the airport. The ice was confined to Moose Lake and south. 1870: A severe snow and wind storm moves across Minnesota and Iowa. The 'Northern Vindicator' of Estherville, Iowa becomes the first newspaper to use the term 'blizzard' on this date.

LOL. Let's just pick 1974 as a start date. So funny LOL Like there isn't data going back another 30-50 years at least.

And so it begins again. UGH!

Yeah, I cringed a bit when I put up my forecast. Fingers crossed for stellar viewing.

Speaking of the eclipse, I put my forecast for it on the Holiday Forecast thread today. Wx been so boring around here, and dry. Classic El Nino wx I guess. And I'll be posting Feb/Winter anom charts a little late this month. Want to wait for more datasets to report. Gonna be close to the record of Feb 1998, if not beat it.

Forgot about the solar eclipse. Hope this is wrong, but a quick moving front on the 7th-8th moving through our region. If this pans, hopefully it'll be through before the start of the event during the afternoon.

A few days to go, but pattern looks good so far for mid March. Need more precip my way tho.

On May Day (May1st) looking at a front moving through with chilly air behind.

On Earth Day, April 22nd, I'm looking at a front moving through with possible energy running along the boundary. Should kick up some wx followed by some cooler air.

Since Easter ends March, and April 1st is indicated with my forecast for then, there isn't much for holiday or observance in April. There is, however an observance for National Library Worker's on April 9th. Looks like a system will be moving in bringing some warmer weather, and a threat for showers/stms.

Winds kicked up last night, and still running up to 30 mph off the Lake. Temps stable in the upper 30's. Forecast highs for today a little overdone. Usually it's the opposite. Need precip badly. Avg is 2.2" for Jan-Feb, but only have 0.79" so far this year.