IronTy

Lol weatherbug says 80% chance of snow, partly cloudy and a high of 44F for next Friday. One of those is bound to be right.

My weatherbug app is showing a snow threat next Thurs/Fri. It's been more accurate than any of the actual models so there's that...

We're still building up to the '96 pattern. Takes time to evolve - February. From my lips to God's ears.

Don't worry , it's gone in the 06Z...maybe

That Baffin block sure gives us the money shot on temperature anomalies.

But I don't deliver papers?

Low pressure over detroit at d10 on the GFS? Right where we want it at this range...

This is where I'm at, and why I'm ready to embrace the humid subtropical climate zone.

I'm just an armchair amateur and I subscribe to all the WB models mostly just for fun, I've been doing it for a couple years now because I like learning about the weather. But frankly I've become really disenchanted with modeling. There have been dozens (hundreds?) of runs of models, even in the 5-day timeframe over the past two years that have showed significant storms and EVERY. SINGLE. ONE. has been wrong. Not just a little wrong, but completely wrong. That's an embarressment. Like serious, every single run showing snow has been wrong for two years. The temps haven't even scored that well. What's the point of them? They're terrible. I try looking at the h5 level just to get the pattern trend but outside of 2-4 days they aren't even accurate. I'd be better off just looking at my weatherbug app and its 10-day forecast. Maybe the pros get more out of them because they can apply some sort of bullshit filter to each run. Thinking about it further, I'd have to run some statistical analysis and I'm not going to waste my time doing it, but just the laws of random chaos should dictate that at least a few of the runs showing snow would come to fruition. It's hard to actually be so bad to pitch no hitters for multiple years in a row. Eventually you start to accuse the pitcher of rigging the game...

It might just be the new normal in the warm regime. Reminds me of growing up in Michigan in the 1990's when we hardly ever got significant snowstorms. I don't see any signs or reason for the oceans to suddenly start cooling any time soon.

This year I bought a snow blade for my Muck Truck and was really excited to get to use it. I should know'd that probably jinxed things.

Didn't we also have pac puke for most of last winter?

Does that mean I'll get to open my windows and wear shorts outside like last winter? If yes then bring it on.

Thanks for the kind words. Also good to hear you're doing so well. So far it's been a classic case of the flu for me: 1. Very run down for a few days wondering why my workouts are so crappy. 2. Whole body starts aching and feels like I'm 110yo with arthritis. Also have weird dreams and night sweats. This started two days ago. 3. Cough starts and headache too. This started today. So basically a textbook flu for me, just a really amplified one. Next will be the sore throat and stuffy nose. I never get fevers for whatever reason. I am fortunate enough to have a very well equipped basement gym so I don't even go to the actual gym anymore. But for sure I won't be doing any workouts for a while other than gentle stretching and foam rolling. I'm retired from competition now anyway, I just lift for fun at the old age of 40.

Sorry for the OT. Here's a snowmap showing you're closer to the snow action working on a deepwater oil rig in the gulf than living in this snow hellscape.

Thanks, it really is miserable. Mostly it's just these crazy acute joint and muscle aches. And last night I had crazy sweaty sick dreams, I dreamed I was in the movie Predator as one of the soldiers. It was eerily accurate too.

Good for him I guess. I definitely wouldn't be able to play football this Sunday though. The joint and muscle aches are out of this world and I'm a former competitive bodybuilder so I don't consider myself a slacker.

I was diagnosed with covid today. It sucks, big-time. You don't want it. ETA, although so far i'd take COVID + December 2009 vs no covid and no snow though. Anything less than 18" though, forgettaboutit.

I swear if I read anything more about a threat in the d7-d10 range being taken seriously I'm going to flip out and see the reaper. Ah shoot, too late for that. Is there a secret lvl2 panic room?

This winter is horseshit. At least last winter was warm and I could open my windows. This winter kicks dirt in the face because it's relatively cold yet still no snow.

I'll take the V16 for next week's storm.

My wife, who cares none for weather, actually had a dream last night where her and I were prepping for a big snowstorm and I was talking about how the MJO wasn't lined up right and we were waiting for the Euro to run for new maps to help with our preps.

Saw this on Twitter...

I'm happy with the current track. It probably won't happen but would be nice.