IronTy

A whole generation is growing up not knowing what a noreaster even is. The horror!

Yeah I drove up to the cabin for that storm and it was a nightmare on the roads. We had a solid foot from it though it melted pretty quick.

You know it's desperate when JB is limited to posts adding up the ACE points from last year.

JD foretold this possibility like a month ago and he was poo-pood. ETA - JB also woofing on 13-14 and something about analogue severe weather in Europe.

Pretty sure that map has already busted low at my house and it hasn't even been 24hrs since it was issued.

Up in the city for my wife's bday this weekend and was just out at crispus attucks for outdoor movie night and it's pretty gross out there. The moon is pretty cool though. Lots of mosquitoes. Looking forward to the front that's coming through this weekend.

Snow

Temps

WB has their first preview of winter forecast up. Basically for us it's average temps with slightly above average snowfall.

Turned on the heated floor in my bathroom for the first time since spring. With the cloud cover it's actually a bit chilly at times in the breeze, crazy for August.

I'm getting kind of pumped for this winter. The drastic change in the Atlantic is something we haven't seen in a while going back almost 20yrs. I think it's interesting that the greatest BN anomalies are basically right along the path of the Gulf stream going up the EC. This could be the beginning of our flip to the cold AMO which we've been missing since basically the late 1990s. Even with the Pacific in it's warm phase, having the Atlantic in the predominantly cold phase means we should have a much easier time lining up a cold phase in both basins. We could be looking at another 20+ years of Atlantic in the cold phase if it continues to cool and it's not just a fluke.

JD has a new posting about SSTs and.implications for winter: His summary so far: "Looking at years with a La Nada to weak La Nina, east QBO, negative PDO, negative MEI, positive AMO and declining solar, winter temperatures are cold."

JB has been griping about how the euro (non AI) can't see cold coming in the mid range for forever it seems. It does seem to have a problem, I mostly look at the GFS for the mid range now. If there ever was an application for AI it would seem to be weather forecasting so I hope that continues to improve.

Let's hope that warm pool migrates east toward Alaska like JD posted about a while ago.

Amazing to see the sudden step down that occured right at August. No complaints here.