MN Transplant

The front end frozen on the HRRR looks decent, but it has also been pumping the temperatures on the back side of the precip shield. Now nearly 50 degree rain at DCA at midnight.

You can see some flakes on the traffic cams just south of Richmond and steadier, but still very light, snow around Petersburg. 14Z HRRR has effectively held its ground.

Oh, NAM. 12z is snow through ~6pm with about 0.3" precip in DC and frozen through ~8pm with another 0.2". So, not only a later changeover, but more precip early. And in Minnesota - Climax is very close to Fertile and up the road from Moorhead. So, yeah.

My wife grew up on a 200 acre campground (her parents maintained the place for church camps, yes, they were quite poor). She has always wanted to own some land and have a place to retreat to and potentially retire to. I totally get it, and I could have a blast wandering around a big property and doing all sorts of projects. However, I am a suburban kid and that's where I have always been comfortable. I just can't wrap my head around being long distances from major hospitals, not having a ton of grocery and shopping options nearby, and the other things that come with rural living. But one thing seems to bother me more than all the rest - the internet situation. I don't know what the future holds for Starlink or other satellite providers, but the lack of good broadband in many places that do have available land is just a killer. Hopefully you can find a good spot!

14.5 for the low. Coldest since the single digit temps of late Jan 2019.

Comparing to the 06z HRRR, the frozen precip totals are very similar, but the HRRR hangs on to snow for an hour longer, so the snow totals are more like 2” with a bit of IP/ZR on top. By the way, for the Winchester area folks, ignore the NAM nest precip totals. The NAM is too aggressive with topographic lifting. There is still a 800mb warm nose that is problematic, but you should get more precipitation than the nest shows. Hopefully the HRRR pans out.

I’ll leave the snowfall map to others, but the 06z NAM nest is similar to prior. Lose the column at 5pm after 0.15” precip in DC, lose the surface at 7pm after an additional 0.15” frozen.

18.9. Coldest since 2/2/19 at home.

Yup, everything about that eruption is mesmerizing. I had a little bump on my PWS.

We are going to have a midnight high at DCA today and a pre-midnight high tomorrow just to screw with us.

Don't even need to. Don't worry, the extra 0.17" or so of sleet/ZR will be immediately washed away by the following torrent of rain at 37 degrees.

It really is like 2 hours of not heavy snow on the front end of the NAM before we ping and then rain. Brutal.

We know to a pretty good certainty that the 850 low is going to go over or just west of DC. What that practically means in terms of timing, front-end thump, and ratio of snow/ice/rain is still to be nailed down, and that's where the meso models will help.

Everyone wants better modeling. The weenies did not understand the repercussions!

The NAM is much drier. Front end thump less impressive. Something to watch.

This is really the wrong season to root for a Wilmington to DC low track.

GFS still looks ok. ~0.5" QPF by the changeover close to 00z Monday near DC.

One good change has been the elimination of the "torch" scenario with temps >45 for a period. Monday also looks cooler again, but still mid-30s.

Despite all of the little changes across all the models, we just keep coming up with the same thing. Front end thump to rain for DC. It has looked like this for days and I really doubt it is going to change now.

Had to get something out of the 6 years of college. 850 low is going to track just over DC or to the west. No major improvement. Still a decent front-end storm.

I'd be grasping at straws to find any significant differences at hour 69 from the 06z run, but the atlantic low is a bit closer in (less spacing).

Heights are in meters

The surface low path on the ICON is interesting. Just offshore SC/NC, over the southern Outer Banks, and then it curls back under the 500 low west of Va Beach.

At 66 hrs, the 850 low is further south (central MS vs northern MS) than it was on the 06z NAM/GFS.