MN Transplant

Missed it by that much.

0.06” over the last 11 days. Would be nice to get a stray storm today.

I thought I was imagining that last night, but it is legit.

All I’m taking away from these posts is to steer my daughter away from competitive swimming.

High of 87 so far here. DCA was 86 though 2pm and IAD is 88. I don’t think we’ll crack 90, but it isn’t as pleasant as yesterday.

0.04”. And now the inevitable lawn-killing short term drought begins.

It is splotchy

Usually I’d say don’t text and drive. But this isn’t really driving.

The GFS is quite dry with a NW flow for most of the run beyond this weekend. Hopefully we can all score before we get into the real crispy time of year.

Sometimes it seems to play a huge factor, and other times it doesn’t. I’m sure it is all about the structure of the atmosphere above the surface. My 0.01” suggests that it was a killer this time.

That I66 line got lame in a hurry. Down to 78 with the outflow here. Practically pleasant.

You can have the initial batch if that line further west rides 66.

Feels like this should be a bigger story (from yesterday, they are making a run again today)

1.01” from today. Matched Elsa’s total in less than 10 minutes.

These are wet storms

Got 0.18” after midnight. Combine that with an equivalent amount in the evening and I ended up 0.4”. In the end, the dry models were too sharp with the cutoff on the NW side, but the wet models weren’t as good with the track.

Marginal for today. SPC: ...Eastern States This Afternoon... Water vapor loop shows a shortwave trough over WI, with an associated cold front extending from western NY/PA into western NC/northern GA by this afternoon. Dewpoints in the 60s to lower 70s ahead of the front, combined with pockets of daytime heating and modest midlevel cooling will help to destabilize the airmass, and lead to scattered afternoon storms along the front. Flow aloft will slowly strengthen today, helping to organize a few of the storms into multicell clusters posing a risk of locally damaging wind gusts from eastern NY/PA southward across the Carolinas and north GA. It appears at this time that severe storms will be isolated in nature.

Comically, the latest HRRR throws a band back at DC as Elsa passes by.

And the HRRR. Never bought into this one.

Wouldn’t be shocked if the 0.04” I got earlier was it for Elsa.

More thunder than raindrops here. 0.02” The short range modeling differences are amazing between most of the models and the HWRF. The HRRR expects the NW side of the larger precip shield to slowly disintegrate. We’ll see.

18z HRRR is a scrape of 95. There is a northward moving spiral band-like line in the afternoon on Thursday that saves some from a shutout.

93.8 with a HI of 111 in my garden. Woof.