stormdragonwx

4 hours ago, The Waterboy said:

NWS Springfield had an excellent and thorough write-up overnight.  It’s too much to post all of it here.  But here are a couple of paragraphs that highlight the strength of the storm.  This is a great setup for some of us to cash in on a big one (if temps cooperate).  
 

FROM NWS SPRINGFIELD: 

 

When comparing this system to the local heavy snow climatology,
there continues to be several potential matches: Upper level jet
structure would support strong lift for precipitation/potential
snowfall. A pivot of the closed 500mb low near/just southeast of
the area could lead to TROWAL development (currently this looks
most likely across south central Missouri). The current mean
850mb low track from southwest to northeast through Arkansas is
also favorable along with the aforementioned 700mb low track over
the area. Night time snowfall accumulation is typically efficient,
especially in any mesoscale/heavier bands. At this time surface
temps appear to remain near freezing which would support a heavy,
wet snow. Current snow to liquid ratios of 10-12:
1 are supported by most guidance with the colder SLR`s expected as
the precip comes to an end Wednesday morning. CIPS historical
analogs also highlight similarities with the setup of this system
with past heavy snowfalls, including the 12/24/2002 and 1/31/1982
systems.

Forecast trends over the last 24 hours:
1. Guidance has come in slightly higher with overall qpf amounts
with anywhere from 0.75-1.00 total qpf with this system along and
south of I-44. This is a significant amount of qpf to be dealing
with a winter event. 2. A slight shift north in the overall track
of the system (very subtle but important). 3. Given the increase
in qpf, snowfall amounts in general have increased for areas along
and south of I-44.

Here are the latest NBM snow probs:

>2 inch snow: 60-90% in the Winter Storm Watch area.

>4 inch snow: 50-80% in the Winter Storm Watch area with highest
probs along the higher terrain of the Ozark Plateau.

>6 inch snow: 40-60% in the Winter Storm Watch area with highest
probs along the higher terrain of the Ozark Plateau.

>8 inch snow: 20-40% in the higher terrain of the Ozark Plateau.

"CIPS historical analogs also highlight similarities with the setup of this system with past heavy snowfalls, including the 12/24/2002 and 1/31/1982 systems."

I remember the Christmas 2002 snowstorm. I was in SW Missouri at the time. That was fun. Had 26 inches on the ground for Christmas day.

14 minutes ago, MUWX said:

For what it’s worth, KY3 already lowered amounts slightly 

Heh ironically my station down here did the opposite on the 10pm news. Too funny how they flipped.

@ouamber Its also digging and slowing down a bit more when you look at the model trend loops. This means nearly everyone will be seeing more snow. I am still just impressed with how well the models have overall locked on with this system.

Local forecast totals from KY3 in Springfield and KNWA in Fayetteville. Naturally the guys here in Arkansas are playing it more conservative. Its not too often we see 8+ here.

Crazy to see the NAM is now being more bullish than the GFS. (Posting Kuchera because I personally feel the 10:1 totals are too unrealistic approaching 2 feet in spots)

00z GEFS a bit disorganized on agreement tonight. Will have to see if this trends after tonight now that the system is onshore. I suspect its a bad run.

Indeed the NAM has nudged north a bit with more widespread heavy totals and seems to be following what the GFS and Euro have been showing. I am still skeptical of what the actual temps will be on the day of so the 10:1 ratio might be exaggerated but I also think the "Snow Depth" parameter that some are swearing by is underdone. Best to take the two and work towards the middle.

As mentioned above the first NAM samplings in range of the storm going out to 84 hours is encouraging. I expect more than likely this will probably shift back north slightly in the next few runs.

I give it another 24-36 hours to let the models settle. This is a classic case of the models shifting back & forth on the track as the system gets sampled.

Don't get me wrong, I would actually love to see a repeat of the Feb 2nd, 2011 event and there are some similarities starting to take shape here nearly 12 years to the day, but I feel we got a ways to go just yet before I can actually say it. lol

Don't jinx it and it all falls apart by Sunday night. lol

1 hour ago, StormChazer said:

Here's the GFS to drool over.

 

 

The lift this run generates is off the charts.

 

haha The good ol' GFS teasing us with crazy totals days before the event as usual. Now if the Euro does this later on as well, its all hands on deck.

EDIT: UKMET is not as crazy but shows a very similar swath. Waiting to see what the Euro and Canadian show here shortly.

00z Euro and UKMET also going all gung ho with this storm.

00z GFS and Canadian look fun.

I'll take it.
Lock... it... in... lol

Well the majority of this month looks depressing (and boring)... so much for winter. Hopefully February sticks to its historical standard and delivers.

Eastern OK now has 2 active tornado warnings on the cells that blew up along US 69.

The new Tornado Watch was recently issued with 60/40 probs. That area of clearing over the triple point could become interesting. Not good for people in this area and to the east of there.

Interesting new Meso Discussion. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0005.html

Also the convective outlook expanded the 10% hatched area further north and west.

Hard to say here in Fayetteville, very powdery wind blown snow. Measured 1/2" in some spots and 2" in others. 

Looks like some mesoscale banding might be setting up with this snow squall. Appears to be back building across N OK. https://radar.weather.gov/?settings=v1_eyJhZ2VuZGEiOnsiaWQiOiJuYXRpb25hbCIsImNlbnRlciI6Wy05NS4wMzYsMzUuOTgyXSwibG9jYXRpb24iOm51bGwsInpvb20iOjcsImxheWVyIjoiYnJlZl9xY2QifSwiYW5pbWF0aW5nIjp0cnVlLCJiYXNlIjoic3RhbmRhcmQiLCJhcnRjYyI6ZmFsc2UsImNvdW50eSI6ZmFsc2UsImN3YSI6ZmFsc2UsInJmYyI6ZmFsc2UsInN0YXRlIjpmYWxzZSwibWVudSI6dHJ1ZSwic2hvcnRGdXNlZE9ubHkiOmZhbHNlLCJvcGFjaXR5Ijp7ImFsZXJ0cyI6MC4yNCwibG9jYWwiOjAuNiwibG9jYWxTdGF0aW9ucyI6MC44LCJuYXRpb25hbCI6MX19

Yup its here. Just passed thru SE Fayettevlle. Had a nice shelf cloud with it too. Getting cold and windy quick.

TSA revising down their totals per their Decision Support page. Of course they have always been conservative on forecasting. https://www.weather.gov/tsa/dsp

Though it does make me wonder if they are either following the NAM or ICON model. The latter has halved the totals from yesterday's runs, especially on the southern edge.

Indeed its always fun to be surprised by an over-performing storm but I feel more than likely this is what most of us will see.

9 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said:

That HRRR does look good for far NWA.  Where are you located?

Yeah I think south of 412 will be lucky to see an inch 2" tops. IMO