stormdragonwx

Yeah GFS took a dump too. Not as dramatically as the Euro, but noticeable. 4-6" looks to be the high end versus the widespread 6-12" we were looking at a couple days ago. Only one still going crazy is the Canadian but its focusing a swath of 15-20 inches (Kuchera) way down in Central/Southern AR now. Looks like the moisture is being choked off & shunted to the SE.

And naturally I got new tires and wiper blades. lol

Yeah the NAM and Euro seem to be out to lunch OR they are right and a massive bust is inbound. Fingers crossed for the GFS/Canadian.

Man I swear if the rug gets pulled out from under us again... I'm hoping this is just the typical "bad run before the storm" model fluke. lol

I will be curious to see if we get some Blizzard Warnings issued in the 4 state area for this late weekend system. The potential is there.

Models still looking kinda depressing. Looks like the rug got pulled out for a lot of us.

Yeah I am writing off Tuesdays setup and holding out hope for Friday... if it doesn't stay too far north too. The next 72 hours will tell the tale.

Pretty amused with the silly GFS model calling snowpocalypse next week for Northern Arkansas with 3+ feet happening in that pocket over Harrison. Society would come to a screeching hault if this were to happen. lol

I've felt the Euro has always performed the best on Winter Scenarios.

I'll take this Euro run. See if it holds for the upcoming 00z run. lol

Tulsa playing it conservative as usual. lol I guess they really don't trust the models.

10 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said:

Yea man the back roads are heavy wet slop here. Our car looks like it has about 3.5" on it now, insane snow rates. Over performer for sure! 

Up to 3" here now too and the band has still not cleared the area yet.

Yeah a definite overperformer over here. Got an inch in less than an hour. Its covering streets and driveways too. Probably have 2+ inches on the east side of town. The heaviest part of the band hasn't moved all the way thru yet.

Rapid changeover happening in eastern OK right now. Possible heavy snow occurring.

HRRR still wants to overperform on this upcoming weekend system. GFS, Canadian, Euro and UKMET all hitting hard for next weeks system still. Euro being the most conservative.
 

Indeed its a pretty crazy flip from what we have seen so far this winter, especially with back to back systems on the long range, also reminds me of 2011. Fingers crossed it doesn't do a 180 in the next 48-72 hours.

1 hour ago, The Waterboy said:

18z HRRR was pretty juicy.  1-3” inches through OK into Western/NW AR.  

I wouldn't rule out more in the higher elevation areas. (Eureka Springs, Harrison) Those areas tend to overperform.

I'm gonna do some reverse psychology and say its gonna do the magic vanishing act around 100 hours out when the NAM comes into range. lol

Pretty jealous for parts of Southern Missouri today. I was tempted to do a snow storm chase up there. Looks like areas around Springfield got 2+ inches according to a NWS report I saw. I saw a mere dippin dot on my car windshield today, NWA just barely missed it again. lol

Send some of that snow over my way. lol

Yes the models thru at least the 20th are looking pretty bleak for any winter fun around here.

Yeah local media here is already trying to hype the Euro solution. Probably because of this:

I will be curious to see if the Southern Plains east of I-35 into the Ozarks will see a decent winter system before the year is out. There's a chance hinted at on the models around the 11th or so but that's way up in the air. I'll admit last winter kinda spoiled me after years of drought when it comes to snow. lol

While the snowfall doesn't look to be happening too much past the I-35/44 corridor as the models shown nearly 2 weeks ago, thats still quite impressive that they had it shown in the general area so consistently.

Yeah its total wishcasting as of right now but the models are finally showing signals for snow in the area. Been doing this for several runs around the 26th.

Seeing some analogs referring to the 1957-58, 1976-77, and 2009-10 seasons for this winter. Some interesting years there in my neck of the woods.

Also an article talking about it. https://www.nwahomepage.com/news/featured-stories/your-weather-authoritys-official-2023-2024-winter-forecast/?fbclid=IwAR18RsWkMnBT3So4VZWvmcyFsixq0qvEPHMb_JCMU2QRYbg6XWeTHAXIX0E