stormdragonwx

For simplicity and ease of access, you have this one here to play around with on the COD page. https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

Previous Run Comparison: https://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/prun/?type=2022121506-GEFS-SGP-winter-snens-258

Pretty good discussion here: https://twitter.com/weatherdan/status/1603212360826617856?s=20&t=mOWWzMh

CONUS Euro Ensemble Probs: https://twitter.com/weatherdan/status/1603212396356591617/photo/1

2 hours ago, StormChazer said:

 

 

Could you imagine this 6AM Christmas morning? Of course, that requires getting 2 feet of snow, but I digress.

 

That's close to Feb 2011 cold!

1 hour ago, NWAflizzard said:

I know I was hating on the GFS mere days ago but I will definitely take what the 06z is serving up at 228 hours. This would be a win for the entire forum. The cold air it brings in behind this would mean a white Christmas.

Indeed both the GFS and Euro last night on the 0Z runs were on board with a snowy scenario.

EDIT: Just saw the 06z run on the GFS, nearly two feet for parts of OK/KS. Yeah right. lol

Hopefully the cold air remains deep enough thru the duration. SW flow aloft could also indicate Ice Storms. I vividly remember the one I experienced for Christmas in '00.

A nice swath appearing on the 18z GFS right over 412 and 40 at 180 hrs out. Euro is possibly showing something at the tail end of its run again too.

EDIT: Canadian has it too but its showing MO/KS getting it instead.

2 hours ago, The Ole Bucket said:

Okay you guys be reasonable and realistic and more or less ignore the precip on the models.

Meanwhile I'm going to lock up this 12z GFS run that gives me 3-4" of snow IMBY on Dec. 23 and single-digit lows on Christmas Eve as absolute Gospel.

I really liked the one that gave me 14" on the 24th a few posts back. lol

Yeah in the next few days the Euro should start to come into a better range to give us a better idea.

Indeed for those wanting a White Christmas, chances are higher than normal this year for much of the area for sure. While 200+ hours is still fantasy land forecasting, the GFS has been consistently showing something happening that week. See the current 06z run valid for Christmas Eve. One thing that is for sure is the cold air WILL be in place.

I am still liking the current trends. There has been run to run consistency despite it being 200+ hours out that someone around here may get some snow Christmas week. Ensembles seem to hint at it too. The cold air WILL be in place.

EDIT: Obviously, it was a total fantasy land forecast from the other day but I'd love to see this come true. Lock it in. lmao

Either way its still been over a decade. lol Though '09 was right before Christmas (like this could have the potential of being) if things set up just right. https://www.weather.gov/tsa/24dec2009_blizzard
It was memorable for me as I had to race east after getting off work to stay ahead of it on 412 as I was living in Tulsa at the time and was heading back home to visit family in AR for the holidays that year. That was... interesting. lol

I'd totally take a repeat of '09. I believe that was the last time TSA issued a Blizzard Warning.

Still too far out to take serious but things might get interesting as we get around the 20th.

1 hour ago, DanLarsen34 said:

The tornado that occurred in LA during the 8-9 PM wave of supercells produced a tornado that caused incredible ground scouring.

 

 

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I was wondering when someone was gonna post this. Yeah, this is incredible. I always thought the EF scale should have better definitions in its rating process when something like this is documented. https://www.weather.gov/oun/efscale

Another example IIRC is when the Moore and El Reno tornadoes ripped up highway pavement.

I can see why SPC was not going for the High risk. It was still pretty active but not insane enough to justify one.

Yazoo City and Eden, MS might be getting one momentarily. Nice couplet on the storm passing thru.

6 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Chasers are running out of daylight to get anything

That was one of the reasons why I decided to hold off on going out. Fast storm motions, lots of trees, and limited daylight for when the storms would likely go tornadic was less than ideal to make the chase worthwhile. I have dodged a fast moving wedge at twilight out there and its not something I care to repeat.

20z update is out. They didn't pull the trigger on the high risk. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

26 minutes ago, DanLarsen34 said:

This is worth noting.

 

 

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Interesting. Makes me wonder if they might nudge the mod risk area further west if that 2nd wave of supercells at sunset in AR/LA verifies.

Yeah saw that coming.

2 hours ago, Calderon said:

LZK radar outage pushed to the right 2 days.


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Good call too.

^Beat me to it. Not many D2 Moderates get issued, and many of those that do tend to go High Risk on the D1. Especially this time of year it seems.

If it maintains an area E of LR and along the river valley in E AR I might bite on this. Last Nov chase I did was 11/30/2018 in Oklahoma.

I can confirm it is over here in NW Arkansas. Been doing it for at least an hour. Starting to stick in places. This might overperform too.

Indeed. haha I am gonna laugh if Friday nights event (which overperformed) winds up being the better of the two.

EDIT: Of course the NAM is being the NAM and has been all over the place today. The GFS and Canadian seems a bit more grounded in consistency. Euro has trended dry all around since last week.