stormdragonwx

Hmm so the latest models kinda pulled the rug out on this event. Looking pretty lackluster for E OK and W AR. TSA is also now saying less than an inch for most of the area too.

NWS TSA is hopping on the bandwagon regarding the model consistency for snowfall, here is their forecast for early next week.

Yes our first official snowfall (and accumulations) occurred tonight here in Fayetteville, AR. While I was skeptical of the models, they apparently nailed it.

Models still showing 2-3 snow chances over the next week but accum amounts are starting to look more realistic as it should be.

EDIT: Latest GFS and NAM are still kinda bullish but that's expected for them. Like this one from the 12Z GFS showing pockets of 2-4" happening over the next 24-36 hours across parts of northern AR. A lot of this if it were to fall will likely melt due to ground temps being warm. Though elevated grassy surfaces and trees that still have leaves may have it accumulate. Roads should be fine.

Lol I was about to post some models up too. Not often you see November snowfall with several inches around here, but it's looking like a real possibility with the three major long range models continuing to show signs. Will be curious to see if it holds come this weekend. 

Anyone here been watching the GFS/Euro/Canadian models? While still 200+ hours out, its been somewhat consistent on showing a possible winter storm system rolling thru in about a week. TV Mets I follow on social media out in Tulsa have mentioned it as well.

Haven't been on in a bit, but this interesting little guy happened last week here in Fayetteville. It was a non-severe rain shower that was in the process of dying that spawned this. First pic was literally right up the road from me. Totally freaky. It was a legit funnel with rotation. A failed landspout is what local meteorologists were calling it since it didn't reach the ground.

9 hours ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Are they going to survey the Morton, TX tornado or did it even hit anything?

Been curious about that too. Been wanting to know what it's width and intensity was. It is safe to say if it did form over and/or hit an urban area it would have caused devastating damage, especially with it's slow forward motion.

KTLX radar is down with a probable tornado just to the east. Not ideal. https://www.facebook.com/NWSNorman/posts/362992379199734

So for some reason after having to reformat the hard drive and reinstalling Windows and other software on an older storm chase laptop of mine (still using Win7) my GRLevel3 program refuses to load radar data but I have stable internet with polling enabled. It gives the InternetOpenURL Failure code upon testing. Its version 2.92 which worked perfectly fine before the reformat. Doing some additional testing, I discovered it still works perfectly fine on one of my older desktop machines that uses Win7 which seems to rule out an issue with the software no longer supporting Win7 considering both machines ran perfectly fine with it before. Thoughts? 

Yeahhhh as I feared, calling it a bust.

Intrigued that the SPC upped the probs slightly for today. Maybe it's because I'm cynical but it feels too cool outside (52 here in Fayetteville, AR at 11:30) and there's too much considerable cloud cover lingering considering its almost noon over much of the highlighted area. We would have to have some rapid clearing and heating to destabilize the area for any supercells to form this afternoon. Even for parts of Eastern Oklahoma where the 5% is. Thoughts?

10 hours ago, thunderbird12 said:

Survey says...no tornado:

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSLZK&e=202204162236

Welp... chasers who were out there be like: https://giphy.com/clips/justin-homer-simpson-bushes-backs-away-cOzyUgoJljvhut2G0E

The next few days (Tues/Weds in particular) will indeed be interesting. Something like 5/20/2013 or 5/20/2019? it could swing either way.

(yes there's a reason why I chose those two similar dates)

There was a lot of extensive damage around the Nilfisk Plant & Warehouse with debris lofted and deposited across much of the Springdale Municipal Airport across the road. There was also some impressive scenes with many trees and fence posts twisted and ripped clean out of the ground. The Malco Razorback Theater below the mall also sustained damage along with a large cell tower that was destroyed.

A few photos from around the Springdale, AR area of the high end EF-2 possible EF-3.

(NWS Prelim Rating)

3 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Seems there was already some pretty significant (probable) tornado damage in Springdale, AR.

Yes both Springdale and Fayetteville. I've been looking at the damage myself. Several businesses and an elementary school was trashed. Minor damage also occurred by the NWA Mall and Razorback Movie Theater. a country club was heavily damaged along with dozens of trees and a destroyed cell tower up the road. I will post up a couple pics after awhile.

NWS NOLA initial surveys calling it AT LEAST EF-3 damage.

Man that city can't catch a break...

I might end up eating my words later, but looking at current trends I am now getting the feeling yesterday was the bigger of the two days. We will see. I just got a feeling this will be a messy storm mode setting up which will hamper the tornado threat.

The driver be like: "Don't mind me, just re-enacting that scene from "Twister" is all."

SPC maintains Mod Risk on the new SWODY1. The 15% hatched area has expanded quite a bit though.

So with tomorrow, are we thinking the SPC will be more or less likely to pull the trigger on going High Risk in wake of what happened today?

SPC hinting at a possible Mod Risk Upgrade in TX for I-35 and E in future outlooks via the 12z update. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Moderate Risk maintained on the new D2 w/15% hatched tornado risk, I believe this is one of the first few D2 outlooks to feature such a high tornado risk since they started doing D2 tornado risk maps?