stormdragonwx

Just now, Powerball said:

Good call on the day 1 enhanced risk from the SPC.

 

Yup nailed it.

Had a dusting to half inch here in Fayetteville but its melting quick now that its stopped.

Video: https://twitter.com/StormdragonWX/status/1384607574742364160?s=20

I won't spam the thread with accum maps but pretty much every model has snow for the 4 states area by this time tomorrow.

GFS has been sticking to its guns all day. GEM and Euro still seem to hint at it, but trend a bit drier. Still can't believe I'm posting snow maps this late in the season.

Soooo.... do we dare talk about this yet? Yes you are reading these graphics correctly. Possible snow on the GFS and Euro showing up next week.

As I mentioned in another post, this season feels quite a bit like 2013. I'm betting it will blow up in the last two weeks of May going into June.

Yeah scratching my head on this one. Maybe we will have more clarity later today.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Maybe its just me but the SPC seems to agree with what I suspect that the threat looks to be trending in the wrong direction now for being another worthwhile chase opportunity. But we still got 36-48 hours to go so we will see. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

10 minutes ago, lookingnorth said:

It looks warmer than average and uneventful for the near future.

Kinda thinking we might get something towards the end of April into May (logically and climatology speaking) but overall this may be a Dixie Alley year.

I know spotter icons are not necessarily accurate to the timing but I will note this doesn't look very good either. I hope we don't get news in a couple days of more chasers being killed by a tornado.

9 minutes ago, Quincy said:

Typical post-2016 Dixie chase for me. Bust!

Central Alabama was really the place to be today. Not looking so hot for the southern burbs of Birmingham again...

I hear ya man. I was right up the road from you. Watched that one promising storm fall apart over Florence. Looks like we are done around here as the other rain showers further south and west look to be struggling. Central AL and east was the place to be again today.

13 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

This might be of interest to some, but Broyles will be doing the 06z D1 update.

Welp time to break out this old gem. https://youtu.be/Keu8J9WgvzQ

2nd PDS Watch issued for the Ark-La-Ms area.

^And the clearing allowing substantial surface destabilization. I think 3500-4000 CAPE is not out of the question now for these areas.

Yeah that clearing is definitely not something you wanna see on a day like today. 

Crazy the High Risk actually happened. And right over Jackson, MS which is my primary chase target.

1 hour ago, thunderbolt said:

 only takes one!

Indeed.

*Joplin, Mo has entered the chat*

I have to say HRRR did a fantastic job with Saturday. From its guidance going all the way back to the day before, I had targeted an area between Clarendon and Groom, TX. And of course the towns are indeed mentioned in the storm report. The tornadoes even appeared to have crossed at areas where I had actually parked that day. (most notably Washburn, the west side of Clarendon, and Greenbelt Reservoir)

1377 tornadoes

EDIT: I'm joining the March 17th club too after seeing the latest data.

2nd High Risk day will be April 26th.

Clarendon now under the gun. Two storms approaching with couplets..

6 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Storm mode a bit messy already. Wondering if some VBV is an issue. 

Theres also a lot of haze and cloud cover that hasn't cleared off as expected. I find that concerning. Reminds me of May 20th, 2019.

That southern cell will need to be watched too. I'm currently sitting in Clarendon, TX watching it as it marches up to the NE. Tulia and Silverton will have to watch this one.

EDIT: Just went Tor Warned as I posted this.

Is it a bad assessment to say this looks like 3/18/12 on steroids? This is crazy for March. Feels more like a day in May.

I kinda see this being another 3/18/12 day possibly. Saw beautiful storms and several tornadoes on that chase day. Almost in the same area too.

An early season event that comes to mind with March is the infamous March 12th, 2006 tornado outbreak. That was a La Nina Spring as well.