greenmtnwx

I wonder if there might be a secondary surface reflection closer to coast once the upper level low swings through

This looks like the last good shot too. Cold is breaking down, most likely wet in the coastal plain from here on out.

Always next year buddy

Stop yourself buddy. You know probably 8 in 10 chance we get little to no snow.

DC is actually having the perfect winter. Some real nice snowstorms, some deep winter cold, some thaws here and there, and then they’ll be 75 with cherry blossoms in another month while we are 36 and fog.

NAM is south

The setup we wanted was a few weeks ago. We just got unlucky. We had the deep cold and just missed a couple storms turning corner. That pattern usually works out. Not this one.

For the city and coast this whole week has gone up in smoke. Epic fail.

I think this could be an overperformer in the southern VT mountains. we had a decent bit of snow earlier today at Stratton that went over to a little bit of sleet and fat flakes. But right now it’s really coming down and by the looks of some of the models I wouldn’t be surprised to see areas around here like boulder Pass at Mount Snow or the Stratton area or Woodford put up 6-8 inches tonight. currently at the cabin in West Wardsboro probably snowing close to inch an hour. Radar looks good.

Honestly, this is sort of a ridiculous statement. For all we know, we might have above average snowfall for the season two weeks from now. It’s mid January. You have no idea, neither do I, and living in the coastal plain all it takes is a couple of storms, even a storm in March to achieve seasonal average snowfall.

You haven’t been here long?

Rgem still too far west. Adjusting to an I95 and NE snowstorm

Euro and GFS look nothing like them

NAM is RGEM’d up

If you were going with the euro, then that forecast doesn’t make a lot of sense. The euro is colder further east and weaker with generally better chance of accumulations in eastern areas and then on Long Island and north east of there. Although there may be better ratios, precip is limited northwest of 287.

Midatlantic? No.

Enough with that lol. New England has gotten snow, the midwest, ohio valley and now midatlantic. This one just a little suppressed.

Not saying we are going to bullseye this one, and I know I’m in a better spot on the Jersey Shore, but I was kind of surprised people were writing this one off the last day or so. People were acting like it was a 36 hour prog. This thing is still day four or five away.

The snow will come. It might take a while, even a few weeks. In January 2003 it took a few weeks to really get a decent snow, but with a pattern like that, it always comes. It comes in many different ways, clippers perhaps an Archimbault on the back end, but we usually always get a decent snow cover. If we get a 2 to 4 week decently deep cold pattern I find it hard to believe that New York City won’t score at least double digit snowfall. A nice 10+ inch month of January will ease some of the recent pain.

Diamondback or Mongoose?

Buy a pass problem solved. Skiing can still be very affordable.

This is New York City/coastal plain area, not northern New England

It almost never happens. even if you go back to December 2010 when we had some extreme cold and some suppression misses, eventually when the deep eastern trough started to lift out we got the inevitable Archimbault event with a big coastal for Boxing Day. if the deep cold for January that we see in the ensembles unfoldS for a couple of weeks, we will get snow.

I’ve said it 100 times before in this forum and I’ll say it again. There is very rarely ever a solid cold and snowless stretch in winter in New York City. The number one ingredient for snow in New York City/Coastal Plain in the winter is the cold. We almost always at least find some moisture source to give us snow if we have the cold. Could be a clipper, could be a mauler, could be a Miller A, could be a Miller B, but give me as cold as you can possibly give me and it’ll almost always snow in our area. In fact for the New York City and coastal plain area, the number one tell for me that there is a good chance there may be snow coming in the next few weeks is when you guys start talking about suppression depression. It almost never fails.

I always said I’d never get sick of the cold but I have to admit at 50yo now you can feel it creeping up on you a little more. Always hunting a good snowstorm, but very little use for just sustained cold without a good storm. Warmer weather is just easier, but I also hate the heat for too long That’s why I could never live in the deep south and go through stretches of heat where it’s just a hopeless feeling that you’ll never get cooler weather. Months on end. I often think about the perfect climate, maybe it would be something in an area like southern Colorado where you get a good amount of snowstorms, but very changeable weather and plenty of sun, no humidity and some warmth. The summers are hot, but not too bad and you get plenty of snow in the winter, but not the deepest of cold. Maybe a place like Telluride, Colorado . One thing about the cold in the Northeast is it just bites more. My son has been in college at Montana State in Bozeman and although they get some very deep cold out there, the dry conditions and the generally sunny weather often just makes it feel a lot better. New England cold with some humidity in the air and wind, it just stings more. He’s back from school this week and said the last few days just feel colder to him than anything he’s experienced out there even when it’s been well below zero.