Modfan2

Snowing and 33 in Brooklyn CT

15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

This. Congrats NNE, but down here in the lowlands of CT we’re rolling into February at less than 20% of climo snow. I’m at 13% of climo and the warmth has been absurd. We’re not even in the game seriously to be in striking distance of normal. It’s ok to be real about the unfolding disaster. It hadn’t been everywhere, but it has been here.

Even when it does snow again, we need a historic period to claw back close to climo. 

But it’s not like it’s dry either, approaching 6” of rain for the month, which would be good for July never mind in January.

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I don’t think TAN will go below zero. I’d say 0 on the nose, would be my guess.

 

Im north and radiate much better, my guess is I see -4 maybe -5?

That’s what I am thinking here as well; let’s see what happens with model runs the rest of the week

Got to think the Euro is over doing the cold, especially in SNE with no snow cover. I will take something closer to the GFS, 0/-5 

30 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Lots of Barney the Dinosaur colors showing up.

Potential daily low temp records being broken at a New England station or 2?

Records for the 4 SNE stations for 2/4 are:

BDL  -8F (prob won't touch this) fromk 1965

PVD  -2 from 1918 (possible?  prob not)

ORH  -4  1934, 1918, 1908   Doable at the current site

BOS  -2  1886   nah... out in the water

I’m think cold is a little over done south of the pike; thinking I hit single digits. Anywhere north of the pike with snow back will be below zero.  Could be wrong but seems trend this winter were early models to trend warmer as we got closer to storms.

9 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Hadn’t seen a temp probability map posted before.   
Probs of -10F or colder 

 

Be interesting to see if the models at a 6-7 day lead time can hold to arctic cold vs a snowstorm vs a rain?  

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I guess overall it is less compressed, still shears out the 2/1 wave. You’d think the follow up would be better now…

I’ll take 1-3 inches of snow….just done with the rain, feel like I’m back in FL

3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

The models are laughing at us all...

This…..A 10 day model runs this season I’d have about 60” of snow, in reality I have 5” and almost 10” of rain.. 

Currently 55F, .98” of rain (5.72” for the month)

21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ll go under .60 here . Models  have 1-2” +

You’ll find out about 9 looking at the radar

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

With the heavy qpf now staying largely offshore except for far SE MA.. folks up north don’t have to worry about warmth and rain melting much. I think convection played a big role in this whole moisture transport .  Less rain.. less warmth etc 

That’s why I was asking if this shifted SE a bit, looks like heaviest precip (even rain) is being shunted a little SE

Snowing here in Brooklyn.

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

NAMS showed that earlier-heaviest rains later over SE CT RI and SE MA

Be it looks like it might be a little more SE than that on radar. Maybe I need to clean my glasses lol!

Just looking at radar, but is this tracking a little further SE than model? Heavier precip in NJ look to be heading more towards LI and not as much into CT.

Are we still expecting the big rains later with this? 

Weird, seems like we are in a 7/10 split down here; no precip?

Considering the amount of rain we have had the last few months I am expecting a dry spring in summah!

Almost 4.6 inches of rain this month, with an 1+ coming today…..snow, 1.5 inches

What’s the January rainfall record in CT; approaching 5”

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah prob run into the WAA band on the way down. 

How much rain with this?

@The 4 Seasons 1.5 in Brooklyn 

1.5” is  going to do it here in Brooklyn, remaining light snow probably not going to add any. 

1”  so far, now under that band here in Windham County, 32F. Would have been better if we didn’t have to start from 35F 

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

North shore is really pounding now per radar

 

Looks to be back building a bit out west 

Nice band now, starting to stick on pavement, down to 33F