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nesussxwx1

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Everything posted by nesussxwx1

  1. Wind gusts on the NAM are something else. Blizzard type conditions. Ratios would be hurt in this case though.
  2. One thing for sure, we won't have to worry about mixing once it's snowing in this setup. Soundings look good and there's no sneaky mid-level warming. Ratios should be around 10:1 indeed, potentially a little higher if rates are heavier. Also keep in mind, temperatures drop throughout the storm. We're only dealing with marginal temps at the beginning per the NAM.
  3. NAM is a thing of beauty. Wow. Further north and west from the previous run.
  4. The area of low pressure is about ~35-50 miles NW of the 12z run thru hr 57.
  5. It sniffed out a threat while the other models had us sunny lol. It's already won this one. We're in meso territory now so I'll be interested to see how they look over the next ~24-36 hours for exact details. We'll know whether we're seeing a foot plus or 3-6" by tomorrow.
  6. NAM has precipitation moving into the area around ~11 AM Sunday morning. Might waste a little bit of time w/ white rain but once precipitation rates increase we are set.
  7. Seems like the snow is on the other side of the Delaware. Any obs out of Philly?
  8. Car covered in a glaze of ice. Looks like FRZ rain fell last night. Measured 7.8" of snow/sleet. Decent storm.
  9. Can see the mix line collapsing south in NNJ. This is where the stall will probably occur.
  10. gfs should never be trusted when it comes to thermals. warned about this.
  11. Hey BBasile, do you think it will be freezing rain? or temps go above freezing? Currently 16.1F on my last reading.
  12. NAM looks pretty damn accurate with the mix line. Definitely wrong in other aspects, but nailed that one.
  13. According to models, the mix line should begin stalling where it is now for the next few hours. Let us see if this verifies.
  14. Brooklyn should hear pingers in the next hour or two.
  15. Sleet started about ~1.5 hours ago and temperatures haven't waivered much. Still 15.6F. Northerly wind. Different story in the ACY area, who are above freezing now.
  16. Wind direction must have changed to a SE flow.
  17. You should be over to rain by the evening. What a storm!
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