WidreMann
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Everything posted by WidreMann
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It then rapidly builds the cold air in as the storm approaches. I'll take that. I'll also echo Wow's sentiments about the NAM.
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Yeah, it's a good 2-3 F warmer in most places. Without that high building in strongly beforehand, this will turn into a rainstorm.
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Thru 48, DPs are lower across east, but HP is a little weaker. Upper levels are similar (tempwise). Probably not anything important.
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Someone called me a "Tool" for making a joke.
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HP is weaker compared to 18z
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The clown maps show big snow numbers, but the temperatures show a more marginal event. Now, with consistent precip and WAA further way, it definitely could be a blowout. But it wouldn't take much for this to be a rainstorm for a lot of NC, and the GFS has shown that even in recent runs.
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It does happen, we just don't care. I've seen it before.
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Yeah, I'm definitely on the edge of my seat to see what the 84 hour NAM says, since it's usually most accurate at that range.
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Maybe I've become old and decrepit and I just failed to actually post it.
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Why was my post deleted? I was just listening some confounding factors we'll need to watch out for.
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And yet we've seen it happen even within recent years. Can the satellites do as good a job as soundings?
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Usually, it's the opposite. The storm is OTS until it's sampled and then it comes back. We'll surely see an adjustment in track, with concomitant adjustment in p-type boundaries. I don't think it'll go away outright.
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(1) Please keep in mind with those TropicalTidbits maps that it's 10:1 ratios and it includes sleet or mix. (2) The ground is warm and temperatures will be marginal outside of the foothills and northwest piedmont. (3) We do have a nice high coming down, but it's not a classic mega-HP that will guarantee cold temperatures. We'll have to rely on evap cooling to get down to or below freezing in many areas. (4) The ULL is coming onshore over the next 24 hours in CA. Surely the additional sampling will cause the models to adjust in some way. (5) When have we ever seen a storm trend south that wasn't a sheared out mess? We are past the point where that will likely happen. The storm will likely trend somewhat NW. That doesn't mean it's over, as the cold air could be stronger, or the trough could dig deeper allowing a better track. Basically, a lot of things can go wrong and probably well. Foothills and NW piedmont will be fine in most scenarios. Probably even Charlotte. But the rest of the Piedmont, as well as northern SC have I'd say a greater than 60% chance of a full-on bust with this one. I do think flakes are guaranteed for many folks, but they just may not be accumulating flakes.
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Worst run of the day for central NC. I think the inability of the high to really build in, and for the storm to dig far enough south is hurting our chances. Since the GFS doesn't seem to be converging on anything, I'll just throw this one on the pile and wait for 10 more runs.
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It's further east, but about the same latitude.
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I'm amazed at the GFS weakening that high. None of the other models are doing it. I suspect it just sucks at modelling these highs.
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I've seen it before! I'm guessing maybe it is trying to factor in Jordan Lake and the "hills" west and south of Chapel Hill. But I can't imagine it really making that much of a difference.
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Why do we watch every model run 7 days out? Why not just check once a day until it's 3 days out and then watch more carefully? Seems like a recipe for insanity.
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That's just a Miller B further north, not an apps runner.
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Honestly, it's not really much further north. It's just faster. The cold air doesn't have time to build in.
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Not even that cold. Surface temps in the lower 40s. Granted, that's only a few degrees above 18z, but still. Nothing too big.
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The HP is looking pretty sad at 138. I don't think it has enough time to build in.
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Nah. Early December snow is bonus snow. I'm surprised we even have an event on the table.
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00z GFS is also further north and a little warmer. Might be the beginning of the end.
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So far, no big changes between 18z and 00z.
