WidreMann

But they did: https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/800-w-320-n/2018091012-240-florence.html. Compare with 00z.

I feel like I deserve a roasting. I mean, the HRRR temps were worrying and we did stay above freezing for most of the event, but we still got a ton of snow.

Except north central Wake, where it is only flurrying. They are having some really bad luck.

Y'all normally get the coastals while RDU gets skipped.

I'm still baffled by the warming. In what universe does moderate or more than moderate snow with a north wind and a completely cold column result in temps warming at the surface? I swear, every storm there's a new meteorological phenomenon that comes in to screw us.

Called it. Ofc, it's snowing now, but it's at 33 and now the other models show temps warming through the event. Not sure how, but I guess that's the way things go.

South Durham, which performs poorly with nearly every storm and I don't know why. Perhaps Jordan Lake. Perhaps gentrification.

Models keep shifting NW and delaying. Temps are too warm. This and that, the usual. I'm guessing we'll see an inch around RDU. I guess if we have enough 1" storms we can reach an average winter again.

Have you seen the HRRR and the 18z GFS? Both keep us above freezing, albeit slightly, through most of the event. RGEM I think is also like that. HRRR actually raises temperatures after precip starts. Hard to believe, but entirely in line with the kind of thing that would happen here.

I know that the RAP isn't actually the most accurate model, but with it showing the continued trend of warming at the surface and precip further west, it's starting to indicate to me that this is going to be another western piedmont special. It is curious, though, that we can have falling snow, a decent northerly wind and still have BL temps warm. But hey, I've seen weirder things. Moral of the story: don't bank on snow in the Triangle unless the models show you in the sweet spot ON THE DAY OF THE EVENT. Even 24 hours before is not enough.

Surface temps rear their ugly head and now we have a last minute NW trend. My cynical call is 1.5" tops for S Durham and most of Wake. If it trends anymore, cold rain isn't out of the question.

I'm wary of snows with frontal systems. Just in watching rain events with fronts, we've so frequently underperformed. Usually we don't care, so it goes unnoticed. My suspicion is that we'll have spotty snow showers that will be more solid towards VA. Some places around here will get a dusting or maybe some real accumulation, but unlikely.

The snow hole is honestly amazing. I don't think I've ever seen it be that bad before.

We are just in a climatologically unfavorable area in the new climate. Coastal areas can still get storms that are suppressed. Mountains and foothills always do well being further to the NW. We are stuck in the middle.

I'm throwing in the towel now. If I look out the window Wednesday night and see snow, great. If not, I'll go to bed like usual. See y'all in a week when we can track our next "threat".

Then again, this is the same trend we've seen the past few days. 06z and 12z move west. Everyone rejoices. 18z backs off and 00z holds. People freak out.

It's just following the 18z NAM.

Sampling shmampling.

When have we had a well-organized storm not trend NW? How many times have we watched a snow band that was supposed be over or even east of the Triangle end up well to the NW? Too many times. The times we end up with way SE are when we have a weak, strung-out storm.

Maybe all the cold we've had will keep water temps (and soil temps) down enough to help y'all out.

And the Canadian. And the GFS, as annoying as it is, is still further west than 00z.

00z last night backed off, then runs today moved west. 00z tonight backs off. Maybe tomorrow will trend the same. All the shortwaves should be onshore now.

Because this storm is going N-S and there is a lot of cold air, even if it were further west such that the beaches get some rain, they'd still likely get some frontside and backside snow.

Like a highstorm.

No -NAO and La Nina mean no storms. Period.