WidreMann
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Everything posted by WidreMann
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Nino failed to really materialize and MJO screwed us. All of these things were sort of options on the table, not great indicators. It all comes down to good blocking around Greenland, -EPO and an active southern stream. Everything else is just proxies on that and not at all guaranteed.
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It is funny, though, how a massive outbreak has now turned into basically a day of seasonably cold weather.
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Tuesday snow chances are dwindling for central NC. And then a mild start to February. Only model still showing cold February is the CFS. See y'all next winter!
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A lot of the big mets were betting on a big pattern change too. It's not just the weenies. The MJO collapsed along with El Nino and the SSW failed to propagate downward much. A bunch of maybes turned into nos.
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I'm not, because when I saw that the PV split failed to propagate downwards and the MJO crashed, this wouldn't happen.
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This pattern is turning to shit very quickly.
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I've more or less given up on a wintry pattern for this area. I mean, that doesn't mean we can't squeak out a storm in one of these cold shots, but the SSW/PV split, -AO, MJO, etc. are all failing to materialize and the models are backing off a true wintry pattern. At least it's not two weeks of a heat ridge, so I'll take that.
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Amazing how so many positive factors can be off by just enough to result in a terrible pattern for the foreseeable future.
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I don't follow SH weather patterns. What do you think is the cause?
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Colder aloft and also at the surface, eventually.
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It's already meteorological winter my dude.
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It was just a hair too far south to save me from two fewer hours of snow. Still, waking up to 7" on the ground in early December is amazing. That puts at I believe third snowiest December for RDU.
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New Euro shows snow over central NC. Can't tell how much though. EDIT: maybe 1-3" based on liquid accumulation in that period.
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Pretty bold for the Triangle. We will fight mixing and marginal surface temps.
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Yeah it improved slightly after 18 hrs, but it's a little warmer at the surface late mroning.
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Are we sure they aren't as accurate?
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18z NAM is coming in warmer and further north.
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They should be banned TBH. The amount of midlevel warmth is going to really cut down on snow for folks tomorrow. I'm predicting a lot of "why is it already sleeting?" posts.
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Funny thing is, the NAM isn't even the warmest model. RGEM and GGEM are worse. New Euro also.
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12z FV3 is warmer midday tomorrow than the 06z, at least for central NC.
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If I see more than an inch on the ground tomorrow morning when I wake up, I'll consider it a win.
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Not exactly encouraging...
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It was fine for me in Durham. Couple inches of snow and sleet. It looked nice.
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What happened in January 2016?
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For Wake County, that's probably reasonable, except the northern parts. Even compatible with NWS forecast tbh.
