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WidreMann

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Everything posted by WidreMann

  1. WidreMann
    Amazing how so many positive factors can be off by just enough to result in a terrible pattern for the foreseeable future.
  2. WidreMann
    I don't follow SH weather patterns. What do you think is the cause?
  3. WidreMann
    If the vortex doesn't split, then it won't matter. What we're looking at is that the vortex may split briefly, but then it recongeals. That's what the GFS shows. If that's what happens, then I don't think it'll help us much.
  4. WidreMann
    I don't know why anyone was forecasting an epic winter. But they did generally agree that December would be the warmer month. I think the warmth was just delayed and so now it extends into January. MJO is looking quite healthy and not in any risk of heading into the zone of death. It's very likely to make it to phase 8 and 1 with some strength. I think we're just going to have a crappy start to January.
  5. WidreMann
    The aggregate heat content anomalies have dropped quite a bit in the past three months, from near 1.6 to now around 1.0. But even during December, it went from 1.3 to 1.0.
  6. WidreMann
    Depends on what parameter. I wouldn't trust them on exactly how much rain/snow will fall or the exact temperature, but they've actually improved enough over the past decades that they're not usually too far off even in the 6-10 day range. Remember how the models had the December 9th storm more than a week out?
  7. WidreMann
    The GFS is moving towards showing a split PV, with the weaker lobe in SE Canada (approximately). GEFS ensemble mean has dropped 10mb zonal mean wind at 60 N for the past few runs. Euro has wavered the last 4 days, but still shows a minimal split of some sort. We are having an SSW of some sort, but whether it will be big enough and propagate downward enough to give us a cold January and February remains to be seen. Euro and GFS LR are seasonable, which in these very warm years, is probably pretty good.
  8. WidreMann
    SSW doesn't look like it will lead to a split, or at least not yet. So that's out. LR Euro sucks. We're hanging onto post 240-hr GFS. Oof.
  9. WidreMann
    Yep, last year was a La Nino and this year is an El Nino.
  10. WidreMann
    Tropical Tidbits shows a lot of cooling in 1+2. I'm not sure how the GFS does SST analysis, so I am often skeptical of what it shows. Still, this doesn't look like a healthy Nino to me. I think we'll probably see the real one next year.
  11. WidreMann
    We live in the south. Wall-to-wall cold has never been the norm.
  12. WidreMann
    EPS average has some snow depth, but less than half an inch in Raleigh. I think it's too early for this to happen.
  13. WidreMann
    But it's 384. The 384 from yesterday's GFS (which is now 360) had significant ridging on both the east and west coasts, with a minimal trough in the middle.
  14. WidreMann
    I don't know what y'all are looking at. All of the indices except the PNA are going in the wrong direction or are neutral. CFS is blowtorch across most of the continent as we head into January. The SSW probably won't result in a full PV split and may not propagate downward. The models are slowly backing off that solution. There's a chance of a cold January, but it's far from likely TBH.
  15. WidreMann
    Seemed to be about 1036, but it was done into VA. In an ideal CAD set up, we have a strong high over the eastern Great Lakes, wedge downwards from there, and also lobing westward into the upper Midwest. It needs to be 1040 or above. It also needs to be a proper Arctic high pressure. We can get CAD from maritime or continental subpolar highs, but it's not as good. It needs to be dry and very cold.
  16. WidreMann
    Colder aloft and also at the surface, eventually.
  17. WidreMann
    It's already meteorological winter my dude.
  18. WidreMann
    It was just a hair too far south to save me from two fewer hours of snow. Still, waking up to 7" on the ground in early December is amazing. That puts at I believe third snowiest December for RDU.
  19. WidreMann
    New Euro shows snow over central NC. Can't tell how much though. EDIT: maybe 1-3" based on liquid accumulation in that period.
  20. WidreMann
    Seems to be just raining here now, but still plenty of snow on the ground. Hopefully it will survive.
  21. WidreMann
    It's now become a dandruff storm.
  22. WidreMann
    Warm nose. CAD wasn't that strong to begin with.
  23. WidreMann
    Keep seeing snow return for bits of time, in between sleet. Also it's a bit breezy out, despite the temps warming slightly. I hope we can keep it frozen till noon.
  24. WidreMann
    Downtown? Down by Southpoint we keep struggling with sleet. But when it was snowing, it looked like it could be amazing.
  25. WidreMann
    Struggling with sleet still, but I am holding on to hope.
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