WidreMann
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Everything posted by WidreMann
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The Euro probably looks the best in the lead up. But no follow up cold air is going to be problematic.
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In Chapel Hill, we got like 4" of snow, while areas 10-20 miles further south got...a lot more than that.
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Disagree.
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Man, that reminds me of when people would post those 10 day MRF images that showed the 850 0-line south of us with precip. It only showed that back it was 12 hours of accumulated precip, but 850 temps at the timestamp. These are cold fronts. Every year a new round of weenies would get excited over their inability to read maps.
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I remember when we used to not even really talk about storms until they were inside 120.
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Maybe a rule that it has to be on more than one global model within 7 days for more than 3 runs or something like that.
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I'm sure we'll get something. The pattern is right. But I think wintry mix to rain is the most likely call at this point. Or light snow (if it ends up suppressed).
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This is as silly as the Euro, albeit in a different direction. The number 18 may be relevant for RDU, but I guarantee you it won't be with regards to inches of snow fallen.
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RAH is being too bold.
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Ehh, this thread is worth keeping. Doubt the storm will look anything like it does on the models today, but I guarantee someone in the foothills, at least, will get wintry precip.
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Dude, it's one run of one model. If this is what it shows 36 hrs before the event, then sure. Right now, I feel like there's a greater chance of a cold rain for central NC than anything else.
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Which model?
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Check temps, though. It warms considerably.
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192 Euro -- storm stalls, cut off from cold air also. Will be interesting to see surface maps, but this is a weird scenario.
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Euro also shows some light snow across southern VA with the clipper. We'll need to watch that one.
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I read somewhere that the FV3 has a cold bias. Not sure if that's relevant to CAD events like this.
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Damn the Euro at 168 is a beauty for central NC. Miller A suppressed with a nice cold high. Cold enough for snow across most of the state. Can we bank this please?
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12z Euro is a lot colder than yesterday (at 850) and colder than the GFS. Makes sense since the trend is to have a stronger cold shot coming in late week.
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It's happened before. Of course, they bring it back 4 days ahead of the event. I blame the data-sparse Pacific.
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12z Euro looks similar at 500 to 12 GFS, with a nod towards its previous run.
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I guarantee you this time tomorrow we'll be seeing the models drop the storm almost entirely.
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The pattern isn't that hostile. We get a transient +PNA, neutralish NAO and negative AO, with a decent cold shot coming down, with reinforcements. It's not the absolute ideal pattern, but I've seen worse patterns produce wintry weather here.
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Of course the Norwegian would give all snow. What else would it give?
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I can't believe you are having to explain this on a science board. -
Shit run for central NC. No snow, just rain by the time it gets here.
